Ducking the diamond has two risks:
- They play a heart, so you ruff and play a spade. They win and force you again. Now you're down if spades are Hxxx=H or x=HHxx and
♥A is on the left. (We can assume that RHO won't underlead
♥A on this bidding.)
- They play a club, then take a ruff when someone has a singleton club with either
♠xx or
♠Hxxx.
Instead, how about matching your agricultural bidding with some agricultural play? Win the diamond, ruff a diamond, club to hand, ruff a diamond, ruff a heart, ace and another trump. If someone has
♠KQxx they may be able to force you off, but you're OK against a singleton honour. Even when it's KQxx-x you have the chance that the long trumps are in the same hand as
♥A, and they can't cross to the other hand in diamonds.
I think this is fairly close. Maybe the duck is better because it's harder for them to find the right defence.
This post has been edited by gnasher: 2011-September-26, 12:39