[Phil]

1. Matchpoints ♠Ax ♥AQJTxx ♦KQ9 ♣xx

1♦ - 1♥
1N - 3♥
3♠ - 4♦
5♣ - ?

Agree with the bidding so far? (3♥ is GF and implies a good suit)

2. You play in 6♣ - short team match

♠73
♥AQ2
♦AT93
♣K742

♠AQ42
♥KJ54
♦---
♣QT983

w/r

pass - 1♣ - pass - 2♣
2♦ - 3♦ - dbl - 3♥
pass - 3♠ - pass - 3N
pass - 4♥ - pass - 6♣
AP

The opening lead is the ♦5. You ask what their 2♦ opening is and told weak with diamonds.

PTP

Thanks

[Echognome]

1. I would just bid 6♥.
2. General plan is a dummy reversal. It will require some friendliness and good guessing in clubs.

[mikeh]

On the first hand, a perfecto gives us a good play for grand, but we can't find out (at least, I don't see how we find out). I just bid 6♥, and hope I make it.

The second one is a tough problem. I tend to place LHO with the club A and the problem we have is if he holds the Spade K and a stiff club. I think we need him to have 4=2=6=1 to make then.

Anyway: I ruff the diamond in hand and lead a club.

Assume the K wins: ruff another diamond, cross to the heart A, ruff another diamond and exit the club Q. If clubs behave, claim.... we have an entry to the diamond A.

Assume LHO wins the club A and returns a heart (a spade is instantly fatal and a diamond preserves our dummy entries should LHO have 3 or 4 hearts along with a stiff club).

We are in trouble....if we play a dummy reversal, we end up locked in our hand....win the heart in dummy, ruff a diamond, cash the club Q...assume trump are 1=3...cross in hearts, ruff the last diamond loser, and we can't get to dummy......unless rho is 3=4=3=3, in which case we merely cash the heart winners, pitching a spade, then spade A and ruff, and dummy, with ♦A and ♣K as the last two tricks is good...so long as we cash the club first.

I don't see a better line....I am not looking to hook against the club J early, and I really don't ever want to be finessing the spade Q.

Edit: there are obviously other things that could happen in clubs....if East wins the first club and returns a spade, for instance...then I'd play clubs to be 2-2. If the J appears on the first round, then, again, there are permutations but I think we can cater to them due to our spots, and I am not going to post my proposed lines....there is a limit to how long a post should be.

[inquiry]

 mikeh, on 2011-August-17, 15:26, said:

....there is a limit to how long a post should be.

Dang, wish I knew that.


I would bid six hearts on first hand, too. Let me think about my line on the second one.

Ok, thought about it. I am going with mike's line above. Club to the King in dummy and ruffing a diamond. I will cover the first diamond with the Ten to force out whatever diamond honor East has.

[quiddity]

Why not 6NT on the first hand? I know there are some hands where it might matter - say if partner has the ♠KQx and ♣Axx - but it seems like a decent bet.

[Phil]

Chris Larsen suggested 6N on the 1st. I bid 6♥ like the rest of ya. Pard had Kx Kxx JTxx AJxx. Did he overbid?

I'll give my thoughts on the 2nd later.

[Phil]

On the 2nd - here's what I figured. RHO had two of the top three diamond honors (since LHO led low), and evidently had 6 (r/w into a strong auction), so KQ, KJ, or possibly QJxxxx. Why didn't he open a weak 2? Probably because he had a four card major, which would give him the extra shape needed to compete here. Kxxx ?? KQxxxx ?? seemed likely. No Lightner double, so not 4=0=6=3. I couldn't see any real difference between 4=1=6=2 and 4=2=6=1.

Alas, RHO was Kxx Jx KJxxxx Jx. I played a club to the Q and hooked the club on the way back.

Can someone check my calculation on 3=5=3=2/4=1=6=2 against 3=4=3=3/4=2=6=1? The key suits are 5/2 and 4/3, so the ratio is 5:3 (right?).

[ArtK78]

I would have bid 6NT on the first hand to protect partner's club holding.

Does the 5♣ bid guarantee the ♣A or is it possible that partner has the Kx(x) of clubs? If it guarantees the ♣A, 6NT may still be right, but 6♥ will limit the damage if a club is led and you don't have 12 running tricks.

[mikeh]

I'm embarrassed to say that my analysis of the second hand was based on a wrong reading of the auction. For some reason, I thought it was my LHO who had bid the delayed 2♦, and thus I played LHO for either stiff club Ace or clubs 2-2. Sorry about that.

As for the first one, I don't agree with 6N. What if partner held KQx Kxx J10xx Axx? Isn't that consistent with the auction? I might add, more consistent than his making 2 slam tries with a flat hand with 12 hcp and few controls outside of hearts.

I don't like our chances in 6N on a club lead

[inquiry]

 Phil, on 2011-August-18, 08:58, said:

Can someone check my calculation on 3=5=3=2/4=1=6=2 against 3=4=3=3/4=2=6=1? The key suits are 5/2 and 4/3, so the ratio is 5:3 (right?).

Chances for one opponent (west? east? I am confused is south or north the declarer?), and simplifying for like terms

4=2=6=1 which is C(7,4)*C(6,2)*C(9,6)*C(4,1) = 176400 = 176400/35280 = 5
4=1=6=2 which is C(7,4)*C(6,1)*C(9,6)*C(4,2) = 105840 = 105840/35280 = 3

If you don;t like working with huge numbers, you can simplify as you suggest by canceling like terms
4=2=6=1 which is C(7,4)*C(6,2)*C(9,6)*C(4,1) = 15 * 4 = 60
4=1=6=2 which is C(7,4)*C(6,1)*C(9,6)*C(4,2) = 6 * 6 = 36

Since the ration of 60/36 can be simplified by dividing numerator and denominator by 12, you once again get 5 to 3.

[quiddity]

 mikeh, on 2011-August-18, 12:16, said:

As for the first one, I don't agree with 6N. What if partner held KQx Kxx J10xx Axx? Isn't that consistent with the auction? I might add, more consistent than his making 2 slam tries with a flat hand with 12 hcp and few controls outside of hearts.

I don't like our chances in 6N on a club lead

True, but switch the queen to clubs and you'll want to be in 6N.
Also, perhaps being in 6NT will inhibit a club lead from an honor. I bet a lot of opponents would tend to lead passively against 6NT even when the auction indicates otherwise.

[mikeh]

 quiddity, on 2011-August-18, 13:19, said:

True, but switch the queen to clubs and you'll want to be in 6N.
Also, perhaps being in 6NT will inhibit a club lead from an honor. I bet a lot of opponents would tend to lead passively against 6NT even when the auction indicates otherwise.

We cue bid diamonds, the suit opened by partner, we advertise a long solid source of winners, and opening leader will be looking at weak spades, and we have taken forever, in bidding terms, to show a club control, and you expect your opps to defend 6N passively? I'd like to play in that type of game, especially for money. Furthermore, the lack of our keycarding at any time strongly suggests that we (1) lack a club control and (2) have not been underbidding in our drive to slam. Finally, if partner does have Ax(x) in clubs, the odds are quite good that opening leader's club choice will actually BE the most passive attack!

Your point about the location of the black Q is well-taken, but since it seems to me that we are guessing, I'd rather guess a contract that only fails by one trick rather than by 2 or 3, even at imps, unless I have reason to believe that the latter offers some significant (tho not necessarily large) additional chance of success.

[phil_20686]

I dont understand mekehs analysis that you could be cold for grand opposite a perfecto. He has denied a diamond cue by bidding 5C, because a diamond cue would show a club cue by inferences anyway. So he cannot have the diamond ace.

Opposite an 11-14 NT with Ks Kh (probably) and AC (hard to beleive he has no ace for his bidding - think a five level cue must have two keycards). I dont think I am expecting that much play?

Will I not just be off on a club lead most of the time, and at best on a finesse.

Even if partner will need the J of D and a pitch for the second club just to make this slam on a finesse.

I think I would have just bid 4H already over 3S to show a mild slam try. I am definitely bidding 5H now and I dont think it is close. I think bidding 6N is beyond ridiculous. Since you are missing A d for sure, and you will need diamond tricks, you could easily just be going off when 6H was cold opposite a hand with the K of clubs.

[semeai]

 Phil, on 2011-August-18, 08:58, said:

Can someone check my calculation on 3=5=3=2/4=1=6=2 against 3=4=3=3/4=2=6=1? The key suits are 5/2 and 4/3, so the ratio is 5:3 (right?).

Yes, the hearts are (6 choose 1) : (6 choose 2), which is 2:5, and clubs are (4 choose 2) : (4 choose 1), which is 3:2. Combining these you get 3:5. [You wrote 4/3 when you meant 2/3 I think, but your final answer is right, though everything is expressed in reverse order.]

 inquiry, on 2011-August-18, 13:03, said:

If you don;t like working with huge numbers

You can do these with less work simplifying. Generally, the ratio (m choose n+1) : (m choose n) is (m-n):(n+1). To see this: (m choose n) is m * (m-1) * ... * (m-n+1)/[n*(n-1)*...*1] and (m choose n+1) is the same but with an extra term, m-n, in the numerator, and an extra term, n+1, in the denominator.

Here it's not so bad just to calculate (6 choose 2) and so forth, but if you get more in the (7 choose 3)-or-so range, this way of doing things is the viable way to actually do it in your head.

[semeai]

 Phil, on 2011-August-17, 20:03, said:

Chris Larsen suggested 6N on the 1st. I bid 6♥ like the rest of ya. Pard had Kx Kxx JTxx AJxx. Did he overbid?

It seems that 3H sets the trump suit and just about demands a cuebid, so partner's 3S was normal. What would 3NT over 3S have meant? If you play serious/frivolous 3NT, I think it should apply here (by a general rule, and just because here you have other ways to offer choice of games).

Then with frivolous, I suppose you may have a frivolous 3NT bid in the context of the auction. It gives the auction a nice tempo too: partner can cuebid 4C after which you can bid 4D or drive to slam if partner's "serious" cuebid over your mild slam try suggests enough.

With serious, your 4D bid would then not demand that partner cuebid with a club control.

I hope it's not resulting to think this way. Partner needs, say, 4 cover cards (out of ♠K ♥K ♦A ♣AK) or 3 cover cards plus something else.

If you don't play serious/frivolous, it's not saying much but I'll say it was one of 1) partner did too much with 5C, 2) partner's 5C bid was close and you just can't win 'em all, 3) 3H really demands cuebids and your hand could've considered another route.

[whereagles]

6♥ on 1st is normal, despite pard's irresponsible attempt at messing up the auction. This will be an overbid only if opps guess the lead right. For all they know, it's spades which could the problem.

On 2nd I'd just follow some simple line.

[MrAce]

 Phil, on 2011-August-17, 20:03, said:

Chris Larsen suggested 6N on the 1st. I bid 6♥ like the rest of ya. Pard had Kx Kxx JTxx AJxx. Did he overbid?

I'll give my thoughts on the 2nd later.

I think it is close, but i would bid 6 ♥ after this auction.

No he did not overbid imo. He is limited to 12-14 and i would be surprised if he refused with 2 Kc + side king and 3 card support.

But i would have not bid 4♦ with your hand at mp. If you end up playing game, this 4♦ bid will cost you. And if u decided to bid slam right now, there is a good chance u would make it even without ♣ stopper. Or even worse, looking at the original hand now, u can go down when pd has ♣ control, just because the way u bid it.

[aguahombre]

 semeai, on 2011-August-18, 16:54, said:

I hope it's not resulting to think this way. Partner needs, say, 4 cover cards (out of ♠K ♥K ♦A ♣AK) or 3 cover cards plus something else.

Pretty much whatever opener holds, if slam is to be a good bet, would require 13 or 14 HCP, rather than 11 or 12. A competent NMF auction, where opener shows min or max in response will eliminate the likelhood of slam at the 2-level...or will establish the max to proceed for slam.

In this case, when opener shows 3-card heart support and a mini with 2H, responder will not look for obscure magic. If opener shows a max, whether 2 or 3 hearts, then the auction can go forth in search of slam.

[semeai]

 aguahombre, on 2011-August-20, 02:19, said:

Pretty much whatever opener holds, if slam is to be a good bet, would require 13 or 14 HCP, rather than 11 or 12. A competent NMF auction, where opener shows min or max in response will eliminate the likelhood of slam at the 2-level...or will establish the max to proceed for slam.

In this case, when opener shows 3-card heart support and a mini with 2H, responder will not look for obscure magic. If opener shows a max, whether 2 or 3 hearts, then the auction can go forth in search of slam.

This is also reasonable, though sometimes cuebidding will be harder when opener has 2 hearts and a max (depending a bit on how you play NMF).

I suspect though that Phil plays 2-way, which, as is the trend these days, does not find out whether opener has a min/max with a game force unless/until you use something like serious/frivolous 3NT (or make a general/quantitative slam try, etc). The other option would be 2D and then 3H, which would show 6 but keep 3NT in the picture and/or show concerns about suit quality if you bid on. I suppose there's also 2C then 4H which must just be a mild slam try, though I've never seen it defined. Neither of these is so attractive with this hand, as you want to know both whether partner has a club control and whether he has enough stuff. If you don't play serious/frivolous over the direct 3H, maybe the 2C..4H route is interesting here.

[Phil]

I think its reasonable in this particular auction to play friv/ser. You could say that when we have found an 8 card fit that the friv/ser rules apply.

Better yet, why don't we just extend transfers?? 2N (over 1N) is commonly played as a relay to 3♣ so why not extend it out so that 3♦= hearts. You could stipulate rules about what it means when opener accepts or not in this context.