[Chamaco]

Scoring: IMP

---

West North East South

 -     2♠    3♥    Pass
 Pass  3♠    4♣    Pass
 6♣    Pass  Pass  Pass
 


Let's not discuss here E-W highly dubious bidding, however there are chances for a slam now.

Lead is J of spades.
What would be your plan ?

[Fluffy]

If North has really ♠AKQ then he can hold NOTHING else, otherwise woudl open 1♠, then the best aproach to be seems this:

♥ to the ♥9, if it wins we are home even when ♣4-1.

If not... well we are down unless ♦K is onside or opponents make a big mistake .

[cnszsun]

North must have 7 spades if he is not so crazy, so i will try to get 5 hearts or endplay South if he has 4 hearts.
Ruff ♠, ♥K, ruff 2nd ♠ with high ♣, then pull trumps, play ♥ honors, if ♥s not behave and south has 4 hearts, throw him in with 4th ♥.

[Chamaco]

One of the most puzzling questions I had when I had to play the hand :

Is it more likely to assume 3-2 trump split or 4-1, given RHO preempt ?

[inquiry]

Chamaco, on Sep 26 2004, 11:05 AM, said:

One of the most puzzling questions I had when I had to play the hand :

Is it more likely to assume 3-2 trump split or 4-1, given RHO preempt ?

With no furhher info, you can assume spades are 6-3.. that leaves vacant spaces of 7 and 10.

Without any clues, trump figure to be 3-2 about 67.8% of the time
With this bid, drumsp figure to be 3-2 only 66.2%

Now, how your RHO rebidding the suit affects the odds is up to you to guess. How much more likley is he to ahve bid with singleton in your suit rather than 2 or 3.. that is one reason why a prior mathematical probabilities are not always the corect way to play a hand.