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odds for slam sim meisters welcome

#1 User is offline   Flem72 

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Posted 2011-August-14, 16:44

Let's say you have the methods to find out that opener has solid spades, and you bid 6S:

2S-P-2N-P
3N-P-6S

AKQJxx
xxxx
xx
x

xx
Axx
Ax
AKJTxx

On my rough calc, it looks about 54%, even on a H lead, and probably better -- like 80%? -- on a D lead. Anyone care to sim this deal?

Second question: What do you think of responder's decision to bid slam ?

Regards and Happy Trails,

Scott Needham
Boulder, Colorado, USA
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#2 User is offline   JLOGIC 

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Posted 2011-August-14, 17:05

I'd rather be in 7 on a heart lead lol

edit: and I'm sure south would be tempted to bid 7 if he knew for sure his partner had the SJ, but since partner can have AKQxxx he can't really bid it. If north had 2 clubs though 7 would be extremely good.
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#3 User is offline   rhm 

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Posted 2011-August-15, 03:19

 Flem72, on 2011-August-14, 16:44, said:

Let's say you have the methods to find out that opener has solid spades, and you bid 6S:

2S-P-2N-P
3N-P-6S

AKQJxx
xxxx
xx
x

xx
Axx
Ax
AKJTxx

On my rough calc, it looks about 54%, even on a H lead, and probably better -- like 80%? -- on a D lead. Anyone care to sim this deal?

Second question: What do you think of responder's decision to bid slam ?

Regards and Happy Trails,

Scott Needham
Boulder, Colorado, USA


This can not be simulated easily, because double dummy you know whether to play for the finesse or the ruffing finesse or when the ♣queen will drop.

Rainer Herrmann
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#4 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2011-August-15, 03:23

can you simulate it by just assuming you will play AK, ruff?
... and I can prove it with my usual, flawless logic.
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#5 User is offline   rhm 

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Posted 2011-August-15, 05:58

 gwnn, on 2011-August-15, 03:23, said:

can you simulate it by just assuming you will play AK, ruff?

You would have to do this manually, that is inspect every single deal.
I am too lazy.
But this can be computed. I think it gives you the 54% mentioned.

Rainer Herrmann
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#6 User is offline   FrancesHinden 

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Posted 2011-August-15, 14:44

My rough calculation makes it a bit less than 54% on a heart lead. Isn't the simple calculation for clubs 3-3 or 4-2 with queen doubleton, which is 52%, plus a bit for singleton queen of clubs, minus a bit for 5-0 trumps and other absurdities? On a non-heart lead it's basically 84% for clubs not 5-1 or 6-0, minus a bit for 5-0 spades, plus a tiny bit for singleton CQ. On a trump lead you also get to pick up Qxxxx clubs onside which makes it even better.
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