[mck4711]

1C - 1H
1NT - 3NT, maybe 1NT not the best option, but I considered 1NT better than 2C

Kxxx
KQ10xx
A
J8x


AJx
A
108xx
A109xx

opening lead: K of D
What is the best plan?

Funny: Now when writing, everything is suddenly so clear and simple . Take both red A and then low S to K. K and Q of H, hoping that J drops. Both would follow, but no J. And now S to J, holds, and A of S. Last step: low C from hand. If LHO has both K and Q, and J of D, I make 3NT, provided he doesnt have 10xxx, Jxxx, KQJ, KQ. If he has max 3S or 3H opps get only 4 tricks. LHO has to give me 9th trick either in D or in C, endplayed. Ahhh.....

[billw55]

I would just run the ♣J at trick 2. This is 75% by itself. Also if LHO has ♦KQJxx and ♣KQ, he probably would have bid 1♦ over 1♣. Which means I have a good chance to make even when ♣KQ is offside.

[Wackojack]

mck4711, on 2011-July-22, 03:48, said:

1C - 1H
1NT - 3NT, maybe 1NT not the best option, but I considered 1NT better than 2C

Kxxx
KQ10xx
A
J8x


AJx
A
108xx
A109xx

Run Jack♣, 10 tricks guaranteed if honours are split. However......If east does not cover and west plays off QJand another ♦, then you may suspect that west started with both K and Q ♣. So now try the hearts. If the jack falls then you are home. If west follows to 3 rounds then play another heart and you are home. If west started with only 2 hearts, then you have some guessing to do.

[mck4711]

Wackojack, on 2011-July-22, 06:19, said:

Run Jack♣, 10 tricks guaranteed if honours are split. However......If east does not cover and west plays off QJand another ♦, then you may suspect that west started with both K and Q ♣. So now try the hearts. If the jack falls then you are home. If west follows to 3 rounds then play another heart and you are home. If west started with only 2 hearts, then you have some guessing to do.

Actually, KQ are offside. So, it might be that LHO exists in H, hoping that declarer has entry-problems, meaning A of H single, or to find E with A of H, running then D through declarer - what leaves some problems.
But, yes, the probability-play seems to be J of C.

[billw55]

I suppose we could construct a scenario where there is some risk to the club hook. Say LHO holds ♦KQ9xx. In with a club honor, diamond to partner's jack, diamond back through. We might try to analyze RHO's card at trick one; presumably holding ♦Jxx he will encourage.

By the way, there isn't an entry problem to dummy - the second club hook is low to the 10. If it loses, the 8 is an entry.

[nige1]

IMO: mck4711's suggested line may be successful but only a kibitzer would find it. bilw55's line is sensible, even if it fails as the cards lie.

This post has been edited by nige1: 2011-July-22, 16:55

[mck4711]

nige1, on 2011-July-22, 08:05, said:

IMO: mck4711's suggested line may be successful but only a kibitzer would find it. bilw55's line is more sensible, even if it fails as the cards lie.

It seems that I see today problems where there is a quite easy solution... And these problems include to count properly up to 9.