[Tataie]

---

What would the best expert lead be guys ?
Guess and will get to be famous !

[inquiry]

Tataie, on 2011-July-22, 14:32, said:

---

What would the best expert lead be guys ?
Guess and will get to be famous !

If you want to go for the gusto, lead the ♣Q, hoping club king is with opener and club jack is not. I would consider it, but not make it at matchpoints. I might very well lead it at imps.

[hrothgar]

three of diamonds

[wank]

that doesn't make much sense. if the King is in opener's hand it's going to be short and the jack if it's in dummy will be longer (lack of stayman).

so for example the queen pays out to kx in declarer and jxx in dummy

[inquiry]

wank, on 2011-July-22, 15:43, said:

that doesn't make much sense. if the King is in opener's hand it's going to be short and the jack if it's in dummy will be longer (lack of stayman).

so for example the queen pays out to kx in declarer and jxx in dummy

Right you are, I mispoke. I meant to say king in dummy.

[nige1]

Tataie asks
"What would the best expert lead be guys?"

No idea but I mark the leads as
♣T = 10, ♠ = 9, ♣A = 8, ♥9 = 7, ♦ = 5.

---

[MrAce]

If declarer has the K we need to lead T or 9 whatever our agreement is, if we believe dummy has it then Q.

3 NT bidder seems more likely to hold longer ♣, i'd lead ♣ Q .

I would not consider leading anything else than ♣.

[mikeh]

while the lack of a stayman bid suggests that club length is more likely on our left than our right, the relative strengths of the opposing hands, assuming we have any chance of beating this contract, suggest that the K is more likely on our right, such that if the suit is 3=2, it is as likely or more that it is Jxx opposite Kx as it is Kxx opposite Jx.

No matter how close you think the decision is, when placing both the K and the J in the opps hands, consider this: some partners have been known to hold Kx of clubs on this auction. Now the club Q lead will certainly get you written up, when declarer has Jxxx or dummy Jxx, but not for the reasons you were hoping for.

I personally think that even if we knew that partner lacked the K, the 10 (or if you play that very informative...to the declarer...method of coded 9/10s, the 9)is better anyway. Add in the chance of Kx in partner and this is an easy decision for me.

It wouldn't surprise me to learn that some other lead 'worked', but unless the choice was backed by persuasive reasoning, colour me unimpressed, whether by Zia or anyone else.

[MrAce]

Good point Mikeh, i missed the pd with Kx possibility.

[OleBerg]

Unless I desperately need to make the columns on this specific hand, the 9♣ or 10♣, according to my agreement.

[gordontd]

MrAce, on 2011-July-22, 19:57, said:

Good point Mikeh, i missed the pd with Kx possibility.

The last time I led the queen from that holding, it paid unexpected dividends when partner had a stiff J and I was able to clear the suit before getting back in with my single outside entry.

[whereagles]

This is not the time to lead the queen. I'll just lead a small club, so as not to create any sort of onfusion on pard's mind.

A case can also be made to lead the ace, hoping for Jx or Kx in dummy (or guessing that in declarer) and trusting the ♦Q to be an entry later on.

[nielsfoged]

I have recently been very inspired by the article on p. 11-12 of My link, so I am obliged to suggest a major suit lead. ♠8 it is!
OK, maybe I am over-inspired!
/Niels

[MrAce]

whereagles, on 2011-July-23, 07:23, said:

A case can also be made to lead the ace, hoping for Jx or Kx in dummy (or guessing that in declarer) and trusting the ♦Q to be an entry later on.

Mustang Sally ! You been running all over the town, u better put your flat feet on the ground !

[whereagles]

Texan humor eludes me. But I think I see what you mean lol.

[Phil]

In the Denver BAM, my partner had a very similar hand and led what I thought was a normal ♣9, and it gave away an overtrick. The other table led a spade, and 3N made on the nose.

The opening leader wasn't Zia, Beneito or Nunes, but it was Duboin

[benlessard]

Leading T9 of clubs is better than leading the A/Q and its not close. Since partner is a passed hand and had the chance to make a weak 2 and didnt clubs is better. If partner wasnt a passed hand it would not surprise me to see the 9H as a better lead.

Low D is terrible and im sure 9H is slightly better than a S

[mikeh]

gordontd, on 2011-July-23, 04:05, said:

The last time I led the queen from that holding, it paid unexpected dividends when partner had a stiff J and I was able to clear the suit before getting back in with my single outside entry.

But if we had a sure entry, then we have to consider leading the Ace, in addition to the Q/10 choice. The Ace has a lot going for it....if dummy has Kxx, we continue the Q, hoping for Jx in either partner or declarer. If Jx, we continue the Q. In fact, when we have a sure entry, the A is far superior to the Q, imo.

The actual hand is far different, even if the suit is the same.

[gszes]

club 10/9 according to your methods rates to be best overall however
if you need a top or a swing at IMPS the club A is the way to go
because if you can set up the club suit after the ace lead you
have turned your hand into the danger hand so declarer will finesse
you (and you have little outside) instead of your partner. This
should either result in a non field result (what you were hoping
for at MP) or a surprise set (declarer taking an anti-% lop
because they think you have an entry) and an imp swing.

I think the club A lead will only work around 30-40% of the time
so it is a bad idea under normal circumstances.

There is no set of conditions where leading the queen will benefit
that is not already covered by leading the 10/9 or the ace. The Q
is much more likely to lead to disaster so avoid this lead unless
you love negative press.