[jillybean]

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(corrected to 13 cards)

opps silent, MP

1♣:1♠
4♦*:4N
5♦*:5♥
6♣:?

* 4♦ splinter
5♦ 3 or 0 keycards
6♣ ♠Q & ♣K

[wyman]

missing a card JB!

[TWO4BRIDGE]

What is South's 13th card ?

Edit: I assume it is a Sp.... so bid 7S .

This post has been edited by TWO4BRIDGE: 2011-July-08, 09:27

[manudude03]

I'll go for glory, 7NT. Partner appears to have something like KQxx Axx void AKxxxx (I assume 4D is void since 3D was available), opposite this, you have 13 top tricks if spades are 3-2 and you don't misguess who has 4 clubs (if anyone). Even if spades don't break, you still have chances available (diamond lead, or non-simulataneous double squeeze around hearts if a black suit lead).

If partner will bid 4D on 4315 hands, then I settle for 7S.

edit: lol spent so long thinking about partner's hand that I missed there were only 12 cards lol
re-edit: this assumes the 13th card was not a spade, if it is a spade, then 7NT is good unless partner is 4414.

[ArtK78]

I thought that the hand diagram tool didn't allow you to post a 12-card hand.

[manudude03]

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Yes it does

[aguahombre]

manudude03, on 2011-July-08, 10:02, said:

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Yes it does

Maybe only when it wants a beer.

[Phil]

manudude03, on 2011-July-08, 09:40, said:

I'll go for glory, 7NT. Partner appears to have something like KQxx Axx void AKxxxx (I assume 4D is void since 3D was available), opposite this, you have 13 top tricks if spades are 3-2 and you don't misguess who has 4 clubs (if anyone). Even if spades don't break, you still have chances available (diamond lead, or non-simulataneous double squeeze around hearts if a black suit lead).

If partner will bid 4D on 4315 hands, then I settle for 7S.

edit: lol spent so long thinking about partner's hand that I missed there were only 12 cards lol
re-edit: this assumes the 13th card was not a spade, if it is a spade, then 7NT is good unless partner is 4414.

Why can't he have 4405 even if 4♦ is a void? 4-5 in the roundeds is much more likely than 3-6 (almost 2:1).

4♦ isn't a void for me anyway, its a value splinter to 4♠. It seems 7N is praying for a 6th club, the ♥Q, or the ♥J and we can work the suit out. There are also some squeeze chances in 7N. Even with a heart card, you need both black suits to break as well, so 7N seems like an underdog. Some sort of LTTC, even at the 7 level would be useful. Thoughts?

I also realize a lot of this discussion is rather meaningless without knowing our 13th card.

Mods: Would it be difficult to have an error message when someone puts in <13 cards? Something like "This hand contains less than 13 cards. Are you sure?")

[manudude03]

To me, we should not comparing how often 7S makes to how often 7NT makes (I do agree 7NT makes less often), but how often 7S makes AND 7NT doesn't to how often 7NT makes. If 7NT makes, we're beating everyone in 7S (undoubled), so any time they both make is still a win for 7NT.

If partner does have the 4405 (worst possible shape for grand purposes even if it is the most likely), there is still the possibility that the opponents lead diamonds or that as you say, partner has the ♥Q or J (with us guessing), or a simple squeeze in the reds (give one opponent 5 hearts and the ♦K, or maybe their partner throws hearts on the run of black cards squeezing partner).

As I mentioned in my first post, if partner can have a singleton then I will settle for 6S. Maybe the best solution is to bid 6H to ask for the ♥Q and if partner bids 6S, follow up with 7D to ask partner for anything else useful for 7N (like the sixth club). But that's down to whether or not you have the agreements.

[mike777]

6h showing the KH, deny KD

btw what is our 13th card?
btw2 I think 5d should deny a void in D so likely 4414 or 4315.

[jillybean]

jillybean, on 2011-July-08, 09:20, said:

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opps silent, MP

1♣:1♠
4♦*:4N
5♦*:5♥
6♣:?

* 4♦ splinter
5♦ 3 or 0 keycards
6♣ ♠Q & ♣K

Sorry! I've been out of internet range all day, here is the corrected hand.

[Siegmund]

7S for me.

It looks to me as if 7S nearly always makes, while 7NT requires both a 3-2 club break and HQ in partner's hand if he has a 5-card club suit, and requires even more from him if he is 4414.

How likely do you think partner is to have those extra cards? If he's a religious pointcounter, maybe the odds are in your favor. If he's a religious LTC-er, the cards he has already shown, KQxx Axxx x AKxx, are plenty for the 4D jump, especially with a stray jack somewhere. I don't think partner is 50-50 to have the HQ.

@manudude: yes, any time they both make, it's a win for 7NT - but remember that going down in 7NT when there are other people making various small slams and/or 7S costs more than being in 7S when 7NT makes does. I would want 7NT to be making ~75% of the time to bid it here and I think it's barely 50%.

6H is an interesting alternative, but I think it's more likely to convey uncertainty about 6-vs-7, or 6NT-vs-6S, than uncertainty about 7S-vs-7NT to partner, and fail to elicit enough excitement from him when he has it.

[daveharty]

Siegmund, on 2011-July-08, 22:18, said:

6H is an interesting alternative, but I think it's more likely to convey uncertainty about 6-vs-7, or 6NT-vs-6S, than uncertainty about 7S-vs-7NT to partner, and fail to elicit enough excitement from him when he has it.

If you think that this is the issue we want to focus partner's attention on--7S vs. 7NT--then why not bid 7H? Surely that would zero in on partner's heart holding.

This has probably gone beyond the purview of the B/I forum at this point, but it does seem like the 7 level is almost "taboo" for B/I players, or something they are just afraid of. Some basic guidelines for auctions where a 6-or-7 decision might have to be made could be useful.

[Hanoi5]

I'll choose 7♠ but I'm more worried about the level than about the denomination.

[jillybean]

I didn't have a problem with the level, rather the denomination. I chose 7N, dummy came down with KQ83 AQ32 2 AKJ7

The ♦K is off side, 7♠ is cold