[Rex47]

In general is wiser to overbid or underbid when in doubt?

[NickRW]

Rex47, on 2011-May-29, 09:34, said:

In general is wiser to overbid or underbid when in doubt?

It is difficult to be dogmatic. Partner may have already stretched to make their last bid! However, assuming "when in doubt" means something like 'all other things being equal', then, in a competitive situation it is often right to bid one more. If the other side can make their contract and you can make yours, then the advantage of bidding is obvious. If the other side can make and you not, you're (usually) paying a reasonable price. If you can make and them not, you're often making as much as you would have got from passing. The only time you're definitely wrong is when neither side can make.

But this is a huge generality. It gets affected by vulnerability, the possibility of being two or more off, form of scoring and doubling comes into the picture - not to mention the actual hand you hold and partner's tendency (or your bidding system's tendency) to push one way or the other.

Nick

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

If you are new to the game, than chances are high, that you are underbidding.

If you are playing Teams, than the scoring methods usually favors slightly
overbidding, a bit simplified - if you bid game, that has a 33% (the real number
is a bit higher)chance of making, than you are break even.
In other words, if you make 1 game out of 3, or you go down twice and make only one,
you will be +- 0.

Playing Matchpoints / Pairs, the scoring method favors a more conservative approach.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[BunnyGo]

To elaborate a little on what Marlowe (in my opinion correctly) says: when playing matchpoints I'd strongly suggest not stretching to bid games or slams. For example, if you stop in 2NT (or 2H or whatever partscore) and manage to make difficult overtricks (with luck or skill) then you will already be winning matchpoints against those in game who go down, and those in partscores who didn't get the overtricks. Stretching for game will not win you many more matchpoints to compensate for the extra risk.

However, as Marlowe says the scoring in teams does compensate for this extra risk and would suggest bidding any vulnerable game that you think has a shot. Non-vulnerable games are still closer to 50-50 than the 2-1 payoff that Marlowe mentions.

Welcome to the forums,

Ben

[ahydra]

The odds are roughly:

for anything, 50% at matchpoints (either a (joint) top if you make it, or a (joint) bottom if you don't)

at teams:
for games, around 34% (vul) or 45% (non-vul) - but careful vulnerable if there's a chance of it going lots down (eg 3NT with dodgy stops)
for small slams, around 55% for both vulnerabilities
for grand slams, around 70% for both vulnerabilities

So in general, if in doubt you should probably bid a game, but not a slam. And as NickRW mentioned, in competitive situations it's often good to bid 1 more if you're unsure what will happen, particularly when non-vul.

ahydra

[karlson]

Overbid of course. If you underbid and it's right, you will get a good result. But if you overbid to a ridiculous contract and make it when all the cards are right, you will also have a story to go with it.

[JLOGIC]

In general overbidding in MP in competitive situations and underbidding in game situations, and doing the reverse at imps, will be pretty good. And underbid on slam hands at all forms of the game.

[Rex47]

Thanks for your imput everyone. I am a novice and was once sent a chat message to overbid when in doubt. And yes, I was usually underbiding. Made a Grand Slam yesterday and really underbid it. Too cauitious I guess. I now see that there is no general answer and ir depends on the situation. Again thanks for your reply.

Best Regards,
Tom

[Mbodell]

Rex47, on 2011-May-29, 15:21, said:

Thanks for your imput everyone. I am a novice and was once sent a chat message to overbid when in doubt. And yes, I was usually underbiding. Made a Grand Slam yesterday and really underbid it. Too cauitious I guess. I now see that there is no general answer and ir depends on the situation. Again thanks for your reply.

Best Regards,
Tom

It is probably best to focus on accurately bidding before worrying too much about when to overbid and when to underbid. In other words rather then focusing on what to do "when in doubt" focus on decreasing the number of times you are "in doubt".