[Phil]

1. Xxxx J9x x KQTxx. Opps bid 1♥ - 1♠ - 2N - 4♥.Lead?

2. QTxx x KQJ9xx xx. Partner shows you 20-21 and exactly 4 spades. 5 level safe?

[JLOGIC]

I would lead my stiff. By far my most likely chance to beat them is partner having the DA and another ace. I view any other lead as basically insane.

On hand 2 obviously the literal answer to your question is that the 5 level is not safe, we could be off AK A or A A A for instance (that's 11, and 20+8 is 28...and 40-28 = 12). If your question is whether or not we should drive to the 5 level, it depends on if we have the ability to make a slam try below the 5 level or not. If I couldn't, then I'd change my system probably. But again, since you gave no auction, this is all just guessing. I guess just giving a bidding problem is out of fashion!

[whereagles]

1. Frequencies out of 1961 hands:

0.245793 pard has ace of diamonds
0.136665 pard has ace of clubs
0.048445 pard has ace of hearts
0.386028 pard has jack of clubs
0.260581 responder has jack of clubs

I'll let you be the judge.


2. No tools for such a sim. By the losing trick count, even 6 rates to be safe...

[Phil]

JLOGIC, on 2011-April-28, 01:56, said:

I would lead my stiff. By far my most likely chance to beat them is partner having the DA and another ace. I view any other lead as basically insane.

On hand 2 obviously the literal answer to your question is that the 5 level is not safe, we could be off AK A or A A A for instance (that's 11, and 20+8 is 28...and 40-28 = 12). If your question is whether or not we should drive to the 5 level, it depends on if we have the ability to make a slam try below the 5 level or not. If I couldn't, then I'd change my system probably. But again, since you gave no auction, this is all just guessing. I guess just giving a bidding problem is out of fashion!

Sorry, it was an evening game and I wrote this on the way home. You have bid:

.....Pass
2N - 3♣
3♦ - 3♥
3♠ - 4♦
4♠ - ?

So far, you've had a Puppet Stayman auction and have cued once.

[Cascade]

Phil, on 2011-April-28, 07:41, said:

Sorry, it was an evening game and I wrote this on the way home. You have bid:

.....Pass
2N - 3♣
3♦ - 3♥
3♠ - 4♦
4♠ - ?

So far, you've had a Puppet Stayman auction and have cued once.

What is your cue-bid style?

What has partner shown/denied by bidding 4♠ over 4♦?

What have you shown by bidding 4♦ rather than 4♣?

[Phil]

Cascade, on 2011-April-28, 09:09, said:

What is your cue-bid style?

What has partner shown/denied by bidding 4♠ over 4♦?

What have you shown by bidding 4♦ rather than 4♣?

1st or 2nd round controls. Why would I cue xx?

[bluecalm]

Assuming imps in first hand (N has no more hearts than spades, 5-10hcp and not freakish hand while S has 18-19 balanced with 5hearts):

Winning lead (1000 hands sample):
3♠ - 56
9♥ - 40
8♦ - 131
K♣ - 94

Clear enough...

[Cascade]

Phil, on 2011-April-28, 09:55, said:

1st or 2nd round controls. Why would I cue xx?

Oh damn i was looking at the second hand for some of the time i was writing the message

[Cascade]

bluecalm, on 2011-April-28, 10:44, said:

Assuming imps in first hand (N has no more hearts than spades, 5-10hcp and not freakish hand while S has 18-19 balanced with 5hearts):

Winning lead (1000 hands sample):
3♠ - 56
9♥ - 40
8♦ - 131
K♣ - 94

Clear enough...

Winning on what basis?

Double dummy?

To beat the contract or just win more tricks than another lead?

[han]

Phil, could you tell me exactly with which hands the opponents bid 1S and then 4H?

And with which hands would partner bid 4H instead of 4S on the second?

[bluecalm]

Quote

Winning on what basis?

Double dummy?

To beat the contract or just win more tricks than another lead?

Winning = defeating the contract on given layout assuming double dummy play.
My assumptions about the bidding are somewhat simplistic and of course could be different if there is something more specific in the system but it won't change the results by much.

[quiddity]

Yeah, I would guess that most people would raise to 2♥ instead of bidding 1♠ with the vast majority of hands with 5-8hcp and 4-3 or 5-3 in the majors.

[Cascade]

Double Dummy tricks available in spades when partner is 20-21 Balanced (including 5422) with exactly four spades and not five hearts and either has no control in clubs or no control in hearts

Tricks Frequency
8 3
9 7
10 74
11 329
12 470
13 117

The five level seems reasonably safe.

[Phil]

han, on 2011-April-28, 14:07, said:

Phil, could you tell me exactly with which hands the opponents bid 1S and then 4H?

And with which hands would partner bid 4H instead of 4S on the second?

I don't understand the first question. If you are asking for their own guidelines, I doubt they know themselves. They are basically novice players. Bluecalm's constraints seem reasonable to me, although the upper range might be a little high.

On the 2nd, our cuebidding rules are still in the formative stages, but I'm pretty sure in this context 4♥ would be last train confirming a club card.

[kayin801]

Phil, on 2011-April-28, 15:39, said:

I don't understand the first question. If you are asking for their own guidelines, I doubt they know themselves. They are basically novice players. Bluecalm's constraints seem reasonable to me, although the upper range might be a little high.

On the 2nd, our cuebidding rules are still in the formative stages, but I'm pretty sure in this context 4♥ would be last train confirming a club card.

I would have thought the first auction would indicate a limit raise or better hand with 3 hearts, if the 2NT rebid shows a balanced 18-19 or so, but responder doesn't have any slam aspirations (balanced 10-11 with 3 hearts maybe). Weaker hands would just support hearts and stronger hands wouldn't sign off. Am I missing a hand type in the 15 seconds I've thought of this? (maybe 63xx or something)

[JLOGIC]

Cascade, on 2011-April-28, 15:17, said:

Double Dummy tricks available in spades when partner is 20-21 Balanced (including 5422) with exactly four spades and not five hearts and either has no control in clubs or no control in hearts

Tricks Frequency
8 3
9 7
10 74
11 329
12 470
13 117

The five level seems reasonably safe.

Why would "no control in clubs or hearts" be our assumption? Why would balanced 20-21 still be our assumption? We denied a club control, and partner didn't bid 4H. He would never bid 4H with no club control, he would extremely often bid 4H with no heart control and a club control (or higher).

Of course you should pass 4S when partner failed to bid 4H. We have zero keycards, and no club control. This is a non problem.

[wyman]

Phil, on 2011-April-28, 09:55, said:

1st or 2nd round controls. Why would I cue xx?

meta obv

[JLOGIC]

Let's put it this way. 4D showed a slam try and no club control. Partner could either:

1) Sign off
2) Bid 4H which would show a club control
3) Drive

If partner did not bid 4H with a club control, he must have a bad hand for slam. For slam to make, we need a club control and 4 keycards just to start. We also are missing the jack of trumps, and might need that depending which keycards partner has. Partner knows that 4 keycards and a control in our uncontrolled suit is a good hand for slam, regardless of the rest of his hand. Therefore, slam is good zero % of the time. It is inconceivably bad to bid.

Cliffs: Partner either has no club control for 4S in which case slam is bad, or partner has a club control without the required 4 keycards (plus some), in which case we are off 2 keycards.

You are not thinking about the right things if you are bidding here (for instance, whether the 5 level is safe is irrelevant if slam is never good).

[Cascade]

JLOGIC, on 2011-April-29, 01:48, said:

Why would "no control in clubs or hearts" be our assumption? Why would balanced 20-21 still be our assumption? We denied a club control, and partner didn't bid 4H. He would never bid 4H with no club control, he would extremely often bid 4H with no heart control and a club control (or higher).

Of course you should pass 4S when partner failed to bid 4H. We have zero keycards, and no club control. This is a non problem.

Well if you have some agreement regarding 4♥. I took first or second round controls at face value. I dfd ask about the cue-bid style before I did the simulation. Last train is subsequent information that you had when you posted but I did not have when I did the simulation.

[JLOGIC]

Last train is bridge. If partner denies a club control, and you cuebid 4H, you have a club control. You don't need any agreements to play this, you should not cuebid if you know that you have a suit uncontrolled.

If you have a great hand for slam with a club control and 4 keycards and some more, you can bid beyond 4D, because partner has made a slam try and you have a great slam suitable hand with a control in the suit partner doesn't have a control in. Maybe this requires bidding 5C rather than 4H by agreement, but it would be really dumb to sign off in 4S with 4 keycards and a club control and some more stuff when partner has made a slam try with no club control, just because you have no heart control.