[pclayton]

Stratified Pairs - Vul vs Not

♠ QJ
♥ K7xx
♦ Qx
♣ KJxxx

LHO....CHO....RHO....You
1♦....pass....pass....?

[flytoox]

Doubelton SQJ and DQ make me feel pd didnt make a trap pass. If pd has D suit and a Major, he will try to overcall the major. But he didnt so I pass here. If I reopen, opps may find 44 S fit.

Hongjun

[Free]

Pass, I don't see any other bid... My partner would've bid his "decent" 4-card Major / 5-card M if he had some strength.

[luke warm]

this is matchpoints? i honestly can't see how pass is anything other than low board, but it just might be the right bid... raptor 1nt (not an option tho) else pass

[whereagles]

I'm bidding 1NT here. No matter how revolting you think bidding here is, at matchpoints you have to do it. Plus, you have to shut out the spade suit, so options are 2C or 1NT. I prefer 1NT.

[inquiry]

I voted defend 1♦. The biggest risk here involved here is that I am short in diamonds, so partner maybe trapping, but since we are vulnerable and they are not, I think there is much, much less chance he is trapping.

The second smaller risk is that you can compete to maybe 3C and if they go to 3D they go down. But on the otherhand, you are vul, so 2C down one, for instance is -100 while if they make just 2D, they only get 90.

So while I am passing 1D, I don't think I will get rich defending 1D. What hands can west hold? A huge balanced hand or very good hand with running diamonds? He may then be set to make +120 or +150 in notrump if I reopen. They may have an eight or longer spade fit, and if I reopen, they may find it. Those are the good ones for me. Probably what will happen is I will reopen and they will outbid me in diamonds (or spades) and get the same score they could have had.

Ben

[paulg]

Despite the huge pass vote passing a non-vul 1♦ bid at pairs looks like losing strategy to me. It seems clear to bid a balancing 1NT (11-14 or 11-16, whatever you play) and I would not describe it as "soft" as the poll implies.

Partner can easily hold a 3343/2353 13-count and, although this means they have an 8-card spade fit, does not mean that we should not have a making contract.

Incidently I am surprised that some play Raptor 1NT in the protective position - what is double for?

Paul

[inquiry]

cardsharp, on Sep 14 2004, 02:18 PM, said:

Despite the huge pass vote passing a non-vul 1♦ bid at pairs looks like losing strategy to me. It seems clear to bid a balancing 1NT (11-14 or 11-16, whatever you play) and I would not describe it as "soft" as the poll implies.

Partner can easily hold a 3343/2353 13-count and, although this means they have an 8-card spade fit, does not mean that we should not have a making contract.

Incidently I am surprised that some play Raptor 1NT in the protective position - what is double for?

Paul

Paul, here are the results of a random selection of 1000 1D contracts (no double), and without regard to vulnerablity. The MP scores given are for the defending side.

Score  Matchpoint %
-500      0.00
-400      55.43
-300      39.22
-200      22.90
-150      26.04
-100      48.30
-50      47.68
0         51.43
70         54.93
90         52.97
110      57.06
130      44.49
150      39.89
170      31.70
190      6.90

The average contract here is slightly below 50% (when group by esult). For instance, there was only one down five vulnerable, which was a bottom for the defense, and yet when I averaged each individual hand, the average is just slightly over 50% to defend (49.7 versus 50.3). So passing, as I said, doesn't seem to be the road to riches. But here, you might think you have the odds stacked in your favor by passing. Your parnter almost has to have the PERFECT pass hand for the balance to work out. While there are many, many hands where, in fact they are in the wrong spot. So on average, you probably should balance, but here, the odds are all wrong.

I am generaly lothe to let them play in an uncontested auction. This one with my spade shortness (and what I assume will be less than full value Spade QJ, and diamond Q), I think pass is right (well I already said that, didn't I). I suspect pass doesn't work out so well, or the hand wouldn't be posted here, but that doens't change my opinion of what is the right bid.

Ben

[pclayton]

inquiry, on Sep 14 2004, 11:08 AM, said:

cardsharp, on Sep 14 2004, 02:18 PM, said:

Despite the huge pass vote passing a non-vul 1♦ bid at pairs looks like losing strategy to me. It seems clear to bid a balancing 1NT (11-14 or 11-16, whatever you play) and I would not describe it as "soft" as the poll implies.

Partner can easily hold a 3343/2353 13-count and, although this means they have an 8-card spade fit, does not mean that we should not have a making contract.

Incidently I am surprised that some play Raptor 1NT in the protective position - what is double for?

Paul

Paul, here are the results of a random selection of 1000 1D contracts (no double), and without regard to vulnerablity. The MP scores given are for the defending side.

Score  Matchpoint %
-500      0.00
-400      55.43
-300      39.22
-200      22.90
-150      26.04
-100      48.30
-50      47.68
0         51.43
70         54.93
90         52.97
110      57.06
130      44.49
150      39.89
170      31.70
190      6.90

The average contract here is slightly below 50% (when group by esult). For instance, there was only one down five vulnerable, which was a bottom for the defense, and yet when I averaged each individual hand, the average is just slightly over 50% to defend (49.7 versus 50.3). So passing, as I said, doesn't seem to be the road to riches. But here, you might think you have the odds stacked in your favor by passing. Your parnter almost has to have the PERFECT pass hand for the balance to work out. While there are many, many hands where, in fact they are in the wrong spot. So on average, you probably should balance, but here, the odds are all wrong.

I am generaly lothe to let them play in an uncontested auction. This one with my spade shortness (and what I assume will be less than full value Spade QJ, and diamond Q), I think pass is right (well I already said that, didn't I). I suspect pass doesn't work out so well, or the hand wouldn't be posted here, but that doens't change my opinion of what is the right bid.

Ben

Thanks all for the responses. I passed as well and caught partner with about as awful a hand as I could find:

Kxxx
AJx
Jxx
QTx

1N, 2C and even 1H work out great. Further, the opponents have a nice diamond fit, and no significant spade fit to speak of. RHO passed on: 98x, Txxx, Axx, xxx. Opener had ATxx, Qx, Kxxxx, Ax and made +70 for a terrible score for us.

I agree with Ben; partner's hand was about as good as I could have hoped for. Whats really bad is that partner's 4333 shape will discourage him and keep us low.

Phil

[Fluffy]

Where is the double option?

ok 2♣ then, bid your 5 card suit before the 4th

[xx1943]

pclayton, on Sep 14 2004, 12:17 AM, said:

Stratified Pairs - Vul vs Not

♠ QJ
♥ K7xx
♦ Qx
♣ KJxxx

LHO....CHO....RHO....You
1♦....pass....pass....?

The question is, who has all the spades? Partner doesn't have 5 or he had bid them. If he has only 3, opps have an 8-card fit.
I don'T like my Qs and Js playing myself, but better defending.

Therefore: No doubt: PASS

cheers

Al

[hrothgar]

pclayton, on Sep 14 2004, 01:17 AM, said:

Stratified Pairs - Vul vs Not

♠ QJ
♥ K7xx
♦ Qx
♣ KJxxx

LHO....CHO....RHO....You
1♦....pass....pass....?

1N seems clear, though I'd be happy at equal vulnerability

Defending 1♦ with shortness can't be right
2♣ seems too unilateral

[paulhar]

hrothgar, on Sep 15 2004, 11:14 AM, said:

Defending 1♦ with shortness can't be right

I agree with 1NT but if your partner is the type who likes to overcall 4-baggers at the one level, the opponents have spades and pass is better.

[whereagles]

They might have spades, but that doesn't mean they will bid them. I won't argue that it may be statistically correct to pass, but at matchpoints, whenever there's the slightest indication the hand might be yours, you have to act. I've been in situations similar to this one and whenever I passed, the score was at best 40%.

[paulhar]

whereagles, on Sep 17 2004, 05:59 AM, said:

I've been in situations similar to this one and whenever I passed, the score was at best 40%.

Maybe you need to work on your defense?

[EricK]

xx1943, on Sep 15 2004, 04:06 PM, said:

pclayton, on Sep 14 2004, 12:17 AM, said:

Stratified Pairs - Vul vs Not

♠ QJ
♥ K7xx
♦ Qx
♣ KJxxx

LHO....CHO....RHO....You
1♦....pass....pass....?

The question is, who has all the spades? Partner doesn't have 5 or he had bid them. If he has only 3, opps have an 8-card fit.
I don'T like my Qs and Js playing myself, but better defending.

Therefore: No doubt: PASS

cheers

Al

This assumes that partner will bid 1♠ on any 7-9ish point hand with 5 ♠ however poor the ♠ are. Even if the ♠ are KTxxx, most of the hands are not 1♠ overcalls.

Eric

[skorchev]

I would bid 1NT - balancing position, values in each suit, no good unicolor to bid it, and I don't like the Pass, so I voted for 1NT.


Stefan