[Cyberyeti]

This hand has a rather beautiful solution that shouldn't be beyond people to work out single dummy. (From the national pairs final today)

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The opening lead is Q♠, plan the play, if the ♦ finesse works, you have 10 tricks in NT, so you'll need 11 in ♥ for a good score, how do you get them ?

[kenrexford]

Looks like the old intrafinesse might work.

Win the spade Ace. Cash two clubs to ditch a spade and avoid a problem in spades. Then, heart 9 toward hand. If RHO has 10x, he will likely duck, allowing the 9 to force the Queen. After a spade is cashed, perhaps another spade forces a ruff in hand. Then, run the heart Jack at dummy. The heart will provide the entry needed to get back to the clubs.

[JLOGIC]

Quote

The opening lead is Q♠, plan the play, if the ♦ finesse works, you have 10 tricks in NT, so you'll need 11 in ♥ for a good score, how do you get them ?

lol. This is why people would be far better off not trying to "predict the field" but instead playing bridge.

I mean:

A) Why do we assume everyone will be in game? This is a difficult hand type for natural players and they might easily bid 1C-1H-3C all pass.

B) Why do we assume those that are in game will not be in hearts like us. We have a 5-3 heart fit! If others are in 4H, it is a complicated hand, and we would do best to just try and figure out what the "best" line is and take it.

C) Why do we assume those that are in 3N will take a diamond finesse. This risks going down on 5-3 spades with the diamond hook off. People have a natural inclination to cash out, especially when it's unclear if others will play game or 4H or what.

This hand is complicated enough already without arbitrarily deciding that we need to take 11 tricks to achieve a good score if the diamond hook is on.

[Cyberyeti]

JLOGIC, on 2011-April-17, 15:01, said:

lol. This is why people would be far better off not trying to "predict the field" but instead playing bridge.

I mean:

A) Why do we assume everyone will be in game? This is a difficult hand type for natural players and they might easily bid 1C-1H-3C all pass.

B) Why do we assume those that are in game will not be in hearts like us. We have a 5-3 heart fit! If others are in 4H, it is a complicated hand, and we would do best to just try and figure out what the "best" line is and take it.

C) Why do we assume those that are in 3N will take a diamond finesse. This risks going down on 5-3 spades with the diamond hook off. People have a natural inclination to cash out, especially when it's unclear if others will play game or 4H or what.

This hand is complicated enough already without arbitrarily deciding that we need to take 11 tricks to achieve a good score if the diamond hook is on.

This is the UK, a sizable fraction of the field will be playing benji, so can show 8 playing tricks with clubs, they'll all be in game. As was seen, only one table out of 25 missed it.

Results:
Score Freq

130 1
400 2
420 5
430 5
450 9
490 3 (lol)

Yes you need 450 and the trumps are 3-2 with the honours split.

[JLOGIC]

So, only 10 out of 25 played 3N. Of those, 5 did not make 430. Therefore, assuming that everyone will make 430 and we need to make 450 to beat them seems incorrect. I'd rather just take the best possible line in 4H rather than try anything desperate.

[JLOGIC]

Cyberyeti, on 2011-April-17, 17:23, said:

This is the UK, a sizable fraction of the field will be playing benji, so can show 8 playing tricks with clubs, they'll all be in game. As was seen, only one table out of 25 missed it.

Results:
Score Freq

130 1
400 2
420 5
430 5
450 9
490 3 (lol)

Yes you need 450 and the trumps are 3-2 with the honours split.

The main reason we need 450 to make a good score is because most people who were in 4H made 450. It is generally true that to get a good score, we need to not play the contract we're in worse than others in that contract.

I mean, are you really that concerned with the 20 % of people who made 430, rather than the 56 % of people who are in 4H?

[Cyberyeti]

JLOGIC, on 2011-April-17, 17:33, said:

So, only 10 out of 25 played 3N. Of those, 5 did not make 430. Therefore, assuming that everyone will make 430 and we need to make 450 to beat them seems incorrect. I'd rather just take the best possible line in 4H rather than try anything desperate.

The funny thing is, the winning line is not that desperate, and will get you 420 a lot of the time 450 is not available.

[JLOGIC]

My point was the error in the thought process "if the diamond hook is on, we need to get 11 tricks in order to get a good score." I made no comment on how to play the hand. It is just an error I see over and over and over again. Just try to make the best play. If the best play gets you 450 or 420 the maximum amount of times, then you did not take it simply to beat the 430s. You took it because it was the right line. I would advocate trying to figure out the best way to maximize your tricks in 4H, not taking an inferior line in order to beat 430 which seemed to be implied in the OP.

I would expect to get a good score in the long run by finding the best line in 4H, and thus getting better scores than the other people in 4H. If people are in 3N or partial, and if they do or don't take the diamond hook in 3N, I don't really care. It's not like we are in some amazingly abnormal contract and we know everyone will play 3N and hook a diamond for making 4, in which case we should only be trying to make 5 and not be concerned with anything else.

[JLOGIC]

As far as how to play the hand, I would win the spade and play 3 rounds of clubs. If RHO follows, I will pitch 2 spades. If LHO ruffs I will try to figure out what to do (possibly cashing the HA and running clubs through RHO, possibly playing heart-heart). If LHO follows, I will lead a small heart off of dummy. If RHO wins and plays a diamond I will finesse. If LHO wins, I'll cash the ace of hearts.

If RHO ruffs the third club, I will overrruff and play a heart to the ace followed by another club. If RHO ruffs high I will pitch a spade and figure out what to do.

A lot of these scenarios make 5 regardless of the diamond hook. That is the other problem, I have no idea if the diamond hook is on or not so how do I even know if I want to make 420 or 450 in order to beat 3N? I am just trying to take the best line.

[Cyberyeti]

Actually very few lines make 450, you need to find a parking place for your 4th diamond and for example if you try ducking trumps to win the 3rd round in dummy and pitch it on the clubs you're going to be forced to take the diamoind finesse, and if it loses, they play a diamond back and you're probably going off. I think my preferred line has better chances of 10 tricks if the diamond finesse fails.

3 clubs stand up, so you successfully get rid of both losing spades.

[CSGibson]

kenrexford, on 2011-April-17, 14:02, said:

Looks like the old intrafinesse might work.

Win the spade Ace. Cash two clubs to ditch a spade and avoid a problem in spades. Then, heart 9 toward hand. If RHO has 10x, he will likely duck, allowing the 9 to force the Queen. After a spade is cashed, perhaps another spade forces a ruff in hand. Then, run the heart Jack at dummy. The heart will provide the entry needed to get back to the clubs.

Also picking up the heart suit if RHO has KT or QT (paying off to KQ tight).

[han]

I also played in the national pairs this weekend, though perhaps of a different nation or at a different level because I don't remember this hand. There were 80 hands, and I only remember 1 hand where I spent some time thinking about what the rest of the field would do.

We were in a silly 4DX contract, red against white, and we were certainly going down on the lie of the cards. The good news was that the opponents could make 4H, so if I went down only 1 then we would still get a bunch of points.

But, as the play went, if I tried for -1 I risked going down 3 on the most likely lie of the cards. After thinking about it for a while, I decided that the cards were as I thought they were and played for a "safe" -500.

The good news was that one pair made 3H doubled making exactly, for 530. So by not trying for -200 I won us 2 matchpoints.

[cherdano]

Cyberyeti, on 2011-April-18, 01:32, said:

Actually very few lines make 450, you need to find a parking place for your 4th diamond and for example if you try ducking trumps to win the 3rd round in dummy and pitch it on the clubs you're going to be forced to take the diamoind finesse, and if it loses, they play a diamond back and you're probably going off. I think my preferred line has better chances of 10 tricks if the diamond finesse fails.

3 clubs stand up, so you successfully get rid of both losing spades.

I am not sure what you are talking about. After three clubs, we run the ♥9. If RHO goes up and plays a diamond, we finesse. If LHO wins that and plays a diamond back, we play a heart to the ace and run clubs, making 420 unless hearts are 4-1. Similarly, if the diamond finesse wins we make 450 if hearts are 3-2. Similarly, if RHO cannot win the first round of hearts (e.g. with Kxx), we will make 11 tricks regardless of the diamond finesse.

[Cyberyeti]

cherdano, on 2011-April-18, 06:58, said:

I am not sure what you are talking about. After three clubs, we run the ♥9. If RHO goes up and plays a diamond, we finesse. If LHO wins that and plays a diamond back, we play a heart to the ace and run clubs, making 420 unless hearts are 4-1. Similarly, if the diamond finesse wins we make 450 if hearts are 3-2. Similarly, if RHO cannot win the first round of hearts (e.g. with Kxx), we will make 11 tricks regardless of the diamond finesse.

This will do the job, it appears there are lots of ways of doing it, I didn't understand until your post exactly what was intended (I misunderstood which trick JL was talking about when he said if LHO wins ...) after cashing the 3 clubs.

At the table there was a standard book position, but one I'd never seen before in actual play.

Trumps are Kx - Q10x

A 4th round of clubs can't be profitably ruffed by either opponent, so you make 5 by discarding a diamond and whoever ruffs there is only one more trump loser with the diamond onside.

Unfortunately, there are several more prosaic lines that work.

[FrancesHinden]

I didn't reply earlier because I know the hand. I'd have thought you can hardly help but make 450 as the cards lie: after 3 rounds of clubs stand up, you can just take a diamond finesse (which holds) followed by ace and another heart. Probably not the best line but shows how these things aren't particularly worth worrying that much about.

[Cyberyeti]

FrancesHinden, on 2011-April-18, 15:04, said:

I didn't reply earlier because I know the hand. I'd have thought you can hardly help but make 450 as the cards lie: after 3 rounds of clubs stand up, you can just take a diamond finesse (which holds) followed by ace and another heart. Probably not the best line but shows how these things aren't particularly worth worrying that much about.

This works with the trump honours split and 3 on the right, but actually goes down with somebody holding KQx or LHO holding H10x if RHO unblocks so is not optimal, yes you can ruff a diamond first to make 420 in that situation.

My partner failed to make 450 needless to say, can't remember what he did.

[ceeb]

Cyberyeti, on 2011-April-18, 09:23, said:

At the table there was a standard book position, but one I'd never seen before in actual play.

Trumps are Kx - Q10x

A 4th round of clubs can't be profitably ruffed by either opponent, so you make 5 by discarding a diamond and whoever ruffs there is only one more trump loser with the diamond onside.

I suspect that when you have a complicated holding in trumps, more often than not there is a defensive layout such that whichever defender ruffs consumes a trump trick. This particular holding is nice to be aware of, but probably there are lots more layouts where the immediate 4th club loses ...

Quote

Unfortunately, there are several more prosaic lines that work.

... and indeed in what way can playing the 4th club gain? After 3 clubs live I'd just duck a heart. If hearts break then there are 11 tricks; only if RHO wins the heart and plays a diamond must then the diamond finesse be tried.

In particular on the given trump lie the heart duck brings in 11 tricks regardless of the location of the diamond king.