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at match-points:should this deal be bid to game?

#1 User is offline   bill1157 

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Posted 2011-April-05, 10:37

North Deals
None Vul
♠ J 10 9
♥ A K J 2
♦ Q J 10 4
♣ 6 5

♠ A 5 3 2
♥ Q 10 9 8 4
♦ A 8
♣ 9 8

N opens 1, E overcalls 2. It would seem to be less than 50% to make 4, but does the overcall raise the chance enough of cards lying favorably to make game a good bid?

Bill
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#2 User is offline   awm 

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Posted 2011-April-05, 11:28

Yes, bid game.

Out of AKQ + KQ + K, we expect overcaller to have at least four of them. While he could potentially have only three and still be strong enough to overcall, that gives his partner enough that we would expect a raise at least.

If overcaller has all six cards you always make.
If overcaller has five of them, you make 5 times of 6 (unless he is missing K).
If overcaller has four of them, you make 9 times of 15 (unless he is missing K or both spade honors).

Overcall this looks like 15/22 which is a lot more than 50%. Even if you throw in a few possibilities with overcaller having only three of the critical cards, game looks good.
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#3 User is online   hrothgar 

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Posted 2011-April-05, 11:29

I'd want to be in game

In practice, I don't think that you're going to lose more than three tricks all that often

Let's assume that the defense starts by cashing a pair of clubs and then leads a Spade through dummy.
You duck, West wins and honor and punches back a trump ...

This is a worst case scenario and you still should make it if the Spade honor and the King of Diamonds are both with the hand that overcalled.
Which is at least 25%

If you get lucky and the defense gets off to a bad start then you have some very real chances to engineer an end play against West
Alderaan delenda est
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#4 User is offline   ggwhiz 

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Posted 2011-April-05, 12:10

Mathematically, Yes. Practically No.

Make the 10 a deuce Or put either top in the club suit and game is out.

I would bid 2 as south, pard is forced to raise but since that doesn't promise 4 of them I should pass and usually do unless I'm on my 3rd beer.
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