[mtvesuvius]

Sorry but using the law to justify passing on hands like this is silly... As gwnn said, just think about the different effects of moving around cards and suits when trump divide 7-1 instead of 4-4 or 5-3. I don't see where you are getting 880 from, and I think 3♠ rates to make quite often.

[gwnn]

edited out

[MrAce]

mtvesuvius, on 2011-March-09, 01:15, said:

Sorry but using the law to justify passing on hands like this is silly... As gwnn said, just think about the different effects of moving around cards and suits when trump divide 7-1 instead of 4-4 or 5-3. I don't see where you are getting 880 from, and I think 3♠ rates to make quite often.

You are off if u really believe they make 3♠ doubled often when pd doubles and u have AJxx ♠...I mean way way off. Pd is doubling 3♠, not 1 ♠.

Perhaps simulation helps, but i am quite confident we set them most of the time at least by 1 trick. When u have AJxx in trump, declarer will have 5 tricks in trumps and his pd has to cover pretty much 4 losers for him that u cant ruff...And if his pd is covering 4 tricks for him, boy, u aint gonna have fun at 4 level yourself even if u hit the jack pot and find a 9 card fit.

Anyway, we think different about how often 3♠ makes, but does it worth to take the risk or not should be the debate. We are talking about a good preempt here, i doubt that will be the case all the time in 1st seat. You pass and they go down most of the time, and they make once in a while, but regardless, they will not mess with u with their silly joke preempts after that and steal your space every other hand, pushing you to make important decisions when u dont have AJxx trump in their suit

mtvesuvius, on 2011-March-09, 01:15, said:

Sorry but using the law to justify passing on hands like this is silly...

I have no problem with you disagreeing with pass, but The Law is actually all about this. It is a guide to help u decide when u face such situations and have to decide whether it is more profittable to bid, or let them play (And the chart i posted doesnt support my pass, unless we find out the frequencies of each results)

[whereagles]

MrAce, on 2011-March-09, 05:43, said:

You are off if u really believe they make 3♠ doubled often when pd doubles and u have AJxx ♠...I mean way way off. Pd is doubling 3♠, not 1 ♠.

Perhaps simulation helps, but i am quite confident we set them most of the time at least by 1 trick.

Some people that a dbl of 3♠ promises slightly more than the dbl of 1♠, but not all abide by that requirement. It's very normal to see people dbling 3♠ on marginal 11-counts with a 4441. You may disagree with it, but it happens on a regular basis. I, for one, do it.

I agree that you'd normally set it by 1 trick, but there's too much risk involved for my liking. Especially since our hand tells us this can be one such case of pard dbling on a marginal hand.

[the_dude]

So .. we got our two trump tricks .. and partner's 16 count was compromised by the fact that all of the opponents high cards are over him. (which we know to be true looking at only 6) I consider this hand a perfect illustration as to why pass is poor with such a bad hand.


The 8 card suit is a distraction .. looking at only 2 trump tricks it's an unreasonable risk to assume that partner will produce 3 more with the rest of the deck sitting over him and opener with shortness somewhere.

[Free]

the_dude, on 2011-March-14, 06:24, said:

So .. we got our two trump tricks .. and partner's 16 count was compromised by the fact that all of the opponents high cards are over him. (which we know to be true looking at only 6) I consider this hand a perfect illustration as to why pass is poor with such a bad hand.


The 8 card suit is a distraction .. looking at only 2 trump tricks it's an unreasonable risk to assume that partner will produce 3 more with the rest of the deck sitting over him and opener with shortness somewhere.

I agree, plus partner rates to have 4♦ which means IF he has many HCP in that suit they'll probably be wasted because of a likely 3-1 or 4-0 split.

[phil_20686]

I think its pretty close. Could be persuaded that 4d is right, but chose to pass. A few things:

(1) Cannot imagine opening the south hand 3!s. 4S looks completely clear to me. Pretty sure I am not alone. An 8 carder with solid pips and a couple of honours?
(2) Sometimes you are going for a packet yourself in 4d since a void diamond with the pre-emptor is hardly out of the question.

If I thought 3S was likely to be an obvious 4S bid, then I might not have passed.