Posted 2011-February-20, 22:38
First question is a routine IMP question. How good does the grand slam have to be to risk the small slam bonus to bid a grand slam at imps?
In a short match, you probably need just a little more than even chance, as bidding it or not bidding it is likely to decide the match.
Not vul, if you bid the grand when small slam makes, you win 11 imps but if the slam goes down, you lose 14 imps.
Vul, if you bid the grand when small slam makes, you win 13 imps, while you lose 16 (minors) and 17 (majors) when it goes down.
This is used by some people to suggest bidding grand when the odds favorite (win 11 lose 14 on this hand, would mean bid the grand slam if the odds were 56% or better (14/(11+14), etc. I actually want a little better, because there is a risk that the opponents might not even bid the small slam. But in a 7 or 8 board match, as noted above, you might well take a risk as long as the odds of the grand is higher than 50%.
Now to the hand. What do you need? Well 3-2 spades seems like a big help. As you know, odds of a 3-2 spit is 68%. Is a 3-2 split enough? Well, no. There must not be 5=0 diamond split if you play in spades and a diamond ruffed at trick one, etc, but surely that is low enough to forget.
I think a reasonable auction might start...
1♥ - 1♠
2♠ - 3♣
3♦ - 3♥
4♣ - 4NT
5NT - 6♦
7♦ - 7♠
Pass
3♣ = game/or/slam try
3♦ = stuff in diamonds
3♥ = cue-here
4♣ = cue bid
4NT = rkcb
5NT = 2 key cards, plus a void (has to be clubs here)
6♦ = asking bid
7♦ = KQ of diamonds
You would have to be playing a pretty sophisticated RKCB for this auction.
--Ben--