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3NT or 4 of a major 8 card fit No ruffing value

#1 User is offline   zasanya 

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Posted 2011-January-18, 06:05


You open 1NT P transfers to and then bids 3NT.In your system you do not show a 4 card minor unless you have slam ambition.So P can be 5-4-3-1.
Q.1 Will you prefer 3 NT or 4 Hearts with this particular hand?
Q.2 Will you always bid the same way with any hand that has an 8 card fit in major but 4-3-3-3 pattern?
Q.3 Will the method of scoring make a difference? (IMPs Mps or Total points )
Will be grateful if the reasoning behind your response is given.
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#2 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2011-January-18, 06:41

It's nice to have two ways of asking for 3-card support. (one of them is a choice of games, the other one demands 4M with 3). However, it sounds like you have only one way. So considering your additional context, that partner could easily be 5431, I think on the balance of probabilities it's right to bid 4 here and everywhere if you have 3 hearts.
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#3 User is offline   Cascade 

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Posted 2011-January-18, 06:53

Agree with Csaba.

Given your style you need to convert to 4 almost always with three or more trumps.
Wayne Burrows

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#4 User is offline   rhm 

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Posted 2011-January-18, 07:37

View Postzasanya, on 2011-January-18, 06:05, said:


You open 1NT P transfers to and then bids 3NT.In your system you do not show a 4 card minor unless you have slam ambition.So P can be 5-4-3-1.
Q.1 Will you prefer 3 NT or 4 Hearts with this particular hand?

3NT

Quote

Q.2 Will you always bid the same way with any hand that has an 8 card fit in major but 4-3-3-3 pattern?

Only if the honor structure is suit oriented would I reconsider.

Quote

Q.3 Will the method of scoring make a difference? (IMPs Mps or Total points)

No, but prefer 3NT even more at MP

Quote

Will be grateful if the reasoning behind your response is given.

If you look at your hand, only a lead might cause problems at 3NT. Even if partner has a 5431 distribution, the chance that partner has a singleton diamond is only 25% and who is to say they find the lead even then? Partner is much more likely to be 5332 anyway than 5431. Of course 3NT could go down opposite 5332 but I do not relish the thought finding 10 tricks opposite 5332.

8 card major suit fits are overrated.

Rainer Herrmann
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#5 User is offline   pooltuna 

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Posted 2011-January-18, 08:18

View Postrhm, on 2011-January-18, 07:37, said:

3NT

Only if the honor structure is suit oriented would I reconsider.

No, but prefer 3NT even more at MP

If you look at your hand, only a lead might cause problems at 3NT. Even if partner has a 5431 distribution, the chance that partner has a singleton diamond is only 25% and who is to say they find the lead even then? Partner is much more likely to be 5332 anyway than 5431. Of course 3NT could go down opposite 5332 but I do not relish the thought finding 10 tricks opposite 5332.

8 card major suit fits are overrated.

Rainer Herrmann


Why do and singletons have a 37.5% probability while have only a 25% probability? :)
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#6 User is offline   rhm 

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Posted 2011-January-18, 09:31

View Postpooltuna, on 2011-January-18, 08:18, said:

Why do and singletons have a 37.5% probability while have only a 25% probability? :)


I thought somebody would ask :D
Responder would have bid differently with 5 cards in and 4 cards in
Therefor if responder holds a 5431 distribution, the chance that the singleton is in increases to 50%, while the chance for a singelton in the minor drops to 25% each

Rainer Herrmann
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#7 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2011-January-18, 09:36

By the way, can't partner be 5-5? Probably doesn't matter much, since most of the time partner will be either 5332 5422 or 5431 (a priori they're quite a bit more likely and then add in that we're 4333 and that opps have passed).
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#8 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2011-January-18, 09:40

I'd certainly pass at MPs, I am not very good with these things at IMPs
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#9 User is offline   rhm 

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Posted 2011-January-18, 09:46

View Postgwnn, on 2011-January-18, 09:36, said:

By the way, can't partner be 5-5? Probably doesn't matter much, since most of the time partner will be either 5332 5422 or 5431 (a priori they're quite a bit more likely and then add in that we're 4333 and that opps have passed).


Unlikely. If you have enough to raise to 3NT with 5-5, you should also have enough for a high level suit contract should the hands fit well.

Rainer Herrmann
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#10 User is offline   rhm 

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Posted 2011-January-18, 12:42

I just ran a simulation with the following assumptions

South hand as given

North 9-12 HCP, exactly 5 cards in , 1-3 cards in , 1-4 cards in each minor
1000 random deals

double dummy results results:

4 made on 694 deals average number of tricks in 9.9
3NT made on 792 deals, average number of tricks in notrump 9.37

On the 694 deals where 4 made, 3NT will make in 90% of these deals
On the 792 deals where 3NT made, 4 will make in 79% of these deals
On the 306 deals where 4 fails, 3NT makes in 56% of these deals
On the 208 deals where 3NT fails, 4 makes in 35% of these deals

Rainer Herrmann
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#11 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2011-January-18, 13:00

I think I'd stick to 3NT here. Got prospects of 5 heart tricks, good stoppers in 2 suits and an ok on the 3rd suit. Would put it back in hearts with something like Axx/xxx or Kxx/xxx in 2 of the residue suits.

Pretty much regardless of it being MP or IMP. But you need to pass in adequate tempo - not too fast, not too slow B)
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#12 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2011-January-18, 13:19

If I faced this problem at the table I'd be devoting most of my energy to planning the conversation about changing our methods.

View Postrhm, on 2011-January-18, 09:46, said:

If you have enough to raise to 3NT with 5-5, you should also have enough for a high level suit contract should the hands fit well.

I'd be very uncomfortable about showing slam ambition with xx KJ10xx x KJxxx (though I know it's possible to construct a hand where slam is making).
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#13 User is offline   zasanya 

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Posted 2011-January-19, 00:00

View Postgnasher, on 2011-January-18, 13:19, said:

If I faced this problem at the table I'd be devoting most of my energy to planning the conversation about changing our methods.


I'd be very uncomfortable about showing slam ambition with xx KJ10xx x KJxxx (though I know it's possible to construct a hand where slam is making).

Thank you all for your replies
We consider an 8-9 hcp as invitational and a 5-5-2-1 hand (M/m) with 8-9 hcp would rebid 2NT. If P prefers M then responder would take a shot at game.With 10+ and 5-5 (M/m) responder would show 2nd suit
Cascade and gwnn have also hinted that there are better method/s available.Would be grateful if they could elaborate on the alternative method.
Aniruddha
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#14 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2011-January-19, 03:34

View Postzasanya, on 2011-January-19, 00:00, said:

Cascade and gwnn have also hinted that there are better method/s available.Would be grateful if they could elaborate on the alternative method.

The easy answer is to play what you currently play, except that 1NT-2;2-3m is natural but may not have slam interest. Then 1NT-2;2-3NT tends to show a balanced hand.

If you want something more sophisticated, try this:

http://www.bridgebas...4m/#entry488240
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#15 User is offline   dboxley 

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Posted 2011-January-19, 12:12

View Postzasanya, on 2011-January-18, 06:05, said:


You open 1NT P transfers to and then bids 3NT.In your system you do not show a 4 card minor unless you have slam ambition.So P can be 5-4-3-1.
Q.1 Will you prefer 3 NT or 4 Hearts with this particular hand?
Q.2 Will you always bid the same way with any hand that has an 8 card fit in major but 4-3-3-3 pattern?
Q.3 Will the method of scoring make a difference? (IMPs Mps or Total points )
Will be grateful if the reasoning behind your response is given.


1 4 always unless none of my cards are in hearts and my cards are soft. I don't like playing hero.
2 No, see 1
3 No
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#16 User is offline   Hanoi5 

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Posted 2011-January-19, 12:25

For me it comes down to question 3. If playing MP's I'll prefer NT more often (and in this case) while at IMP's I might play 4 (MORE often, not always). I doubt we're getting a diamond lead and I suspect a spade lead is more likely (?!).

View Postwyman, on 2012-May-04, 09:48, said:

Also, he rates to not have a heart void when he leads the 3.


View Postrbforster, on 2012-May-20, 21:04, said:

Besides playing for fun, most people also like to play bridge to win


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#17 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2011-January-19, 12:47

View Postgnasher, on 2011-January-19, 03:34, said:

The easy answer is to play what you currently play, except that 1NT-2;2-3m is natural but may not have slam interest. Then 1NT-2;2-3NT tends to show a balanced hand.

If you want something more sophisticated, try this:

http://www.bridgebas...4m/#entry488240

I quite like the following scheme:
2C-2x-2S is an invite with spades
2D-2H-2S is an invite with hearts (might be followed up with 3m over 2N to show a shapely invite)
2H-2S-2N shows clubs
2H-2S-3C shows diamonds
2H-2S-3D shows 5/5 majors GF
2H-2S-3H shows 6 spades, either game invite or slam interest with shortness; opener bids 3NT to accept, over which responder signs off in game or shows shortness
2H-2S-3S shows any hand where responder wants to play 4S opposite 3 spades, and 3NT otherwise (typically 5431)
2H-2S-3N shows 5332
After 2D-2H the scheme is similar, except that 2D-2H-3H is 5/5 majors, invitational.

The advantage is that responder can force opener to bid 4S with 3 spades without disclosing the shape of his side suits.

I got this scheme from Han; since he didn't invent it we could call it Hanified transfer extensions.
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#18 User is offline   dake50 

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Posted 2011-January-19, 17:18

9 trick game verses 10 trick game sways me to 3NT.
I see no missing stop.
Likely getting a spade lead (other major). Liking that.
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