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To Finesse or Not to Finesse

#1 User is offline   BunnyGo 

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Posted 2011-January-17, 14:29

This hand came up in the recent Cleveland regional Sunday swiss:

The contract was 4 hearts. At one table (with a diamond lead) declarer won the ace, pulled 3 rounds of trump and exited a diamond won by LHO. A club was returned, and the declarer correctly spurned the finesse by playing A and K of clubs, ruffing a diamond, and when the Q of clubs didn't appear exited a club. When the Q of clubs was with the A of spades the declarer made.

The question is: if the RHO had won the first diamond exit and led a club, should the finesse be spurned or not? If the Jack is inserted and loses, one can still play clubs, ruff out diamonds and exit a club--but the opponents may be able to unblock (if clubs are 4-3) and arrange the non A of spades hand to be on lead. Any thoughts?
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Posted 2011-January-17, 19:04

Declarer seems to have played the hand very well.

If RHO had won the diamond and shifted to a club, declarer would surely have done exactly the same thing. Why would he give up a big chunk of his legitimate chances in the hope that RHO (with the ♣Q and without the ♠A) had for no reason led a club away from the queen?
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#3 User is offline   mfa1010 

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Posted 2011-January-18, 16:04

As a clear starting point we should assume that the defender didn't lead away from the ♣Q. But we need to analyse all the facts. How did the play go in diamonds? Who had three hearts? What did the other defender discard? How was the bidding?

Looking at a hand such as this in vacuum is rarely correct.
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