[wank]

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it's matchpoints. 5♦ would have gone for 800. you may not think it's reasonable to defend, but 5♠ feels better than 6♠ on a diamond lead.

or maybe i'm wrong and 6♠ is fine - i'm terrible at bridge maths but the double heart hook seems to be 47% if hearts are 5-2. there's a reasonable chance they're 6-1 or more.

no unusual agreements.

obviously there are 3 actions you might not agree with, should south volunteer 3♥ on the way to game, should north pass-and-pull and should south raise to slam?

[effervesce]

Assuming 3♦ setup a forcing pass over 5♦ (which should be the case), the pass over 5♦ by north is asking partner whether we should defend or play 5♠. Having done so, he should respect partner's choice to defend 5♦. The pull to 5♠ now by north showed a hand suggesting slam - and given his previous bidding, south has a very good hand for slam. Hence 100% blame to north.

[gnasher]

Assuming West has exactly 10 cards in the minors, the vacant space ratio is 3:6, so the double heart finesse is

6/9 * 5/8 = 41%

If West has exactly 11 cards in the minors, the vacant space ratio is 2:7, so the double heart finesse is

7/9 * 6/8 = 58%

There are two other factors:
- My calculation assumes that West can be 0355, but he might have doubled 1♠ with this shape
- West may lead ♣A from something like x Jx KJ10xx AJxxx.

It seems quite likely that East is 5-6 in the minors, so maybe slam is good enough to be in. All of that's academic though - we can't do that sort of calculation in the bidding.

North had an awkward problem - if South bids 5♠ himself, he'll probably have a singleton diamond, so slam is likely to be good; but if South suggests defending North just wants to play in 5♠ - there's no reason to expect 800 from 5♦. This seems to be a weakness of the standard approach where pass-and-pull is a slam try. (And before anyone suggests it, inverting pass and double doesn't solve this problem.)

South's actions look reasonable too - he had already limited his hand by bidding 4♠ and then doubling, and he seemed to have everything in the right places.

With the opponents in the auction we can't expect to bid with pinpoint accuracy, and the final contract was OK anyway. So no blame.

[Edited to correct early-morning nonsense]

This post has been edited by gnasher: 2010-December-30, 04:02

[Fluffy]

south has overdefined his hand

He accepted a game try without trying for slam

He doubled 5♦

He doesn't have any more to say. Specially with 2 low doubletons in the minors. Bidding slam its wrong IMO.

[OleBerg]

Assuming that 3♦ was gameforcing, and 4♠ showed minimum:

There isn't much blame to go around, but what little there is goes to North.

South has showed minimum on every turn, but could still have a hand much less suited for slam, so the raise seems clearcut to me.

North overvalued his hand. While the ninth and the tenth thrumph are very usefull, the eleventh should not be regarded highly. The spade-suit is practically not better than K22222 or KJ1032. The club-values only works towards covering loosers, not towards creating many tricks or stopping suits.

North' hand is excellent for game (even if partner had passed originally), but moving towards slam, it should be reassesed. A direct 5♠ on 5♦ would have sufficed.

[mike777]

 wank, on 2010-December-29, 23:22, said:

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it's matchpoints. 5♦ would have gone for 800. you may not think it's reasonable to defend, but 5♠ feels better than 6♠ on a diamond lead.

or maybe i'm wrong and 6♠ is fine - i'm terrible at bridge maths but the double heart hook seems to be 47% if hearts are 5-2. there's a reasonable chance they're 6-1 or more.

no unusual agreements.

obviously there are 3 actions you might not agree with, should south volunteer 3♥ on the way to game, should north pass-and-pull and should south raise to slam?

55% north for bidding 5s
45% south for bidding 6s

[JLOGIC]

I really dislike the auction (specifically the 4S bid, and the subsequent slam try after it), but I agree with what gnasher said.

[MrAce]

What would North bid, had West passed 4♠ instead of bidding ? If we believe N should make another move over 4♠ with west silent, then i totally agree with Gnasher. But if we believe North shd not make any other move over 4♠, then i think his forcing pass intending to pull the dbl later was wrong. If so, he shd have bid 5♠ now.

Since i dunno what exactly what 4♠ meant in their agreement, i cant tell if N shd make another move or not over 4♠.

But if i were North, i probably would have passed 4♠if it meant bad hand. Am i totally safe at 5 level ? There are some hands pd may hold that i dont have a play even in 5♠. And the worst part is, by making another move, i wont be exchanging too much info that worths the risk. I will still never be crystal clear sure. No need to mention, pd will get excited too, thinking he already showed a bad hand so now he will be more agressive to bid it with some hands that we dont have a play in 6.

One thing Gnasher said "we cant be very accurate when opps are involved" I % 100 agree with that statement, but my action in these situations are conservative in style. I prefer +680 to -100 Maybe thats why i miss a lot of slams

Here are the hand types that we are in danger at 5 level i came up with, thinking everyone would agree to open. There are some hands we open that i dont even wanna put them here, because probably 4♠ wont be making

AQxxx Qxx Jx Axx (hey, pd said he has a bad hand, didn't he ? )

AQxxx QJxx Kx xx

AQxxx KJxx Qx xx (with ♥ ruff)

AQxxx AJxx Jx xx (at least he has 2 aces)

AQxxx KQJx xx Jx

etc etc

Now, i can make those hands more sexy, but the problem is, as i said b4, then we won't be able to hold pd at 5 level, since he told us he had a bad hand.

[pooltuna]

mostly no blame altho North is guilty of a pass and pull which probably shows more than North actually has IMO

[gnasher]

My earlier post assumed that 3♦ was just invitational or better with support, so 4♠ showed more than a minimum. I'm sure that was how Wank was playing it.

[nige1]

 wank, on 2010-December-29, 23:22, said:

it's matchpoints. 5♦ would have gone for 800. you may not think it's reasonable to defend, but 5♠ feels better than 6♠ on a diamond lead.
or maybe i'm wrong and 6♠ is fine - i'm terrible at bridge maths but the double heart hook seems to be 47% if hearts are 5-2. there's a reasonable chance they're 6-1 or more.
no unusual agreements.
obviously there are 3 actions you might not agree with, should south volunteer 3♥ on the way to game, should north pass-and-pull and should south raise to slam?

---

Tough decisions although North might pass 5♦X. It makes no difference here but after
1major (2N=unusual) ??
Eric Crowhurst recommends:

• 3♣ = Other major (allows opener to bid 3♦ as a waiting move).
• 3♦ = Fit for opener's major.
• 3♥/3♠ = Natural N/F