[billw55]

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You're playing in a district level NAP qualifier, so matchpoints. This is the last round of the event. Both you and ops are in contention for a top three finish and a trip to nationals.

LHO leads the ♦J.

Do you let this ride around to your hand, for an overtrick? Or hop up with the ace, lest righty have the king and switch to a heart?

edit: clarification - ops methods allow this lead from either KJT or JT.

[wank]

deffo the ace.


1) you're only missing 6 diamonds. you can easily drop the stiff king
2) more importantly if hearts are 5-3 anyone getting a heart lead is going off in 3nt, in which case the gain from the overtrick would be minor.
3) the reason you mentioned. if the KD is wrong you're making a trick worse than the field for a bottom.

[rduran1216]

billw55, on 2010-November-15, 12:38, said:

---

You're playing in a district level NAP qualifier, so matchpoints. This is the last round of the event. Both you and ops are in contention for a top three finish and a trip to nationals.

LHO leads the ♦J.

Do you let this ride around to your hand, for an overtrick? Or hop up with the ace, lest righty have the king and switch to a heart?

heart switch is too obvious to let the diamond go. could this lead be coming from KJ10? if so, it may be closer. But I'm hopping up and taking my 9 tricks, and hopefully the field is good enough to find this obvious defense.

[pooltuna]

billw55, on 2010-November-15, 12:38, said:

---

You're playing in a district level NAP qualifier, so matchpoints. This is the last round of the event. Both you and ops are in contention for a top three finish and a trip to nationals.

LHO leads the ♦J.

Do you let this ride around to your hand, for an overtrick? Or hop up with the ace, lest righty have the king and switch to a heart?

This is why Lloyd's of London is my insurer. Pop that ♦A now! This is why I get relatively low rates

[billw55]

rduran1216, on 2010-November-15, 12:45, said:

heart switch is too obvious to let the diamond go. could this lead be coming from KJ10? if so, it may be closer. But I'm hopping up and taking my 9 tricks, and hopefully the field is good enough to find this obvious defense.

Yes, this lead could be from ♦KJT. Or not.

[wyman]

Agree with Wank (edit: and the others who've posted as I've been typing apparently). 9 tricks is not likely to be that bad; 8 tricks is almost surely disastrous.

Also, if RHO has 5 hearts (seems reasonable, and he rates to have 6-8 hcp), he may well have opened light at a number of other tables (don't know the makeup of your field). Then LHO has a clear heart lead.

And even if none of the above plays, you have 9 tricks on a passive black suit lead if the DK is with lefty. I've always been taught to avoid taking actions that could result in a zero when an average or average plus is practically guaranteed.

[CSGibson]

Ace, in a heartbeat. There is a very, very small chance, IMO, that a good opponent is leading from KJT of a minor suit on an auction where you are 1) stretching and 2) not bidding majors.

[jukmoi]

Ace. Others might get a heart lead. Some conservative wests might pass 1NT. Since there is a good chance we are ahead the field there is no need to get greedy and give it back.

[Free]

Even if the lead can be from KJT, we have an easy ride home in 3NT if we take the Ace and play on ♣. We should be glad they didn't lead a ♥, so we're ahead of everyone else. Lets keep the advantage.

[billw55]

Interesting. I certainly was not expecting this to be unanimous!

At the table, I huddled for a bit, then called for the ♦A and a club. +600 earned us 2 matchpoints out of 8.

Later I thought that maybe I should have ducked it. On this auction, south is surely leading his longest suit. Therefore he certainly has at least four of the six missing diamonds. Usually five, since a four card major would probably be a more appealing lead than JT8x of a minor. That makes south a big favorite to hold the king. But maybe I was resulting ...

[dboxley]

I would like to be at the table but I would probably play the A and drop the 3 under it. They still might not find the heart switch when in with the club A. They will always switch to a heart if the K wins trick one.