Posted 2010-November-16, 06:50
Assume ♦ do not break, since otherwise there are 9 tricks. Obviously you also have 9 tricks if you guess the ♠ position.
When you eventually play a ♣ to develop a trick there, I will not assume that opponents are clever enough to duck. If they do, no squeeze or end play is likely to work and I at least see nothing better than guessing the ♠ in the end position.
Assuming ♣ are not ducked, superficially an end-play for the ♠ queen looks attractive. Appearances are deceptive. Trouble is, with the ♥ ace entry in dummy gone now, how will you reach and cash your ♣ queen trick without using the ♠ king as an entry? If West has the ♠ queen and you throw East in, there is no end-play.
If West has the ♠ queen he should prefer to keep all his ♥ and and come down to a doubleton ♠. Again you would have to guess the ♠ position. Overall playing for an end play does not look better than a guess.
What about squeeze chances?
Trouble is that the ♥ menace is not worth much, because West is sitting over the fourth ♥. For the same reason a red suit squeeze can not work.
Nevertheless since ♥ are known to break 5-1, it is likely that East is the one long in ♦, in which case you might squeeze him between the minors or between ♦ and the ♠ queen.
So the idea is playing for the squeeze. Duck the ♥ queen. If West does not find the ♦ switch and ♣ are not ducked you can discard a ♦ on the ♥ jack, cash your top ♠s ending in dummy and finally cash the ♣ queen in the following ending:
♠ J
♥ -
♦ 9
♣ Q6
♠ 10
♥ -
♦ KQ4
♣ -
You discard the ♠ ten. East will be squeezed, if he held the minors or either opponent if he held length in ♦ and the ♠ queen. Of course you also make if the ♠ queen drops or ♦ break.
It does not matter whether opponents return ♣. You still reach the above ending in dummy with the ♣queen already played.
Best defense, assuming the ♣ is not ducked, is for West to switch to ♦ after the ♥ queen was ducked and ♦ to be continued after you led a ♣. In this case you will have to discard a ♠ on the ♥ jack and cash the top spades to reach this ending:
♠ -
♥ -
♦ 9
♣ Q6
♠ 10
♥ -
♦ Q4
♣ -
You cash the ♣ queen. East will still be squeezed if he holds length in ♦ and either the ♠ queen or length in ♣.
But West will not be squeezed if he held length in ♦. Fortunately West does not look bright enough to find the ♦ switch in this case.
Rainer Herrmann