[Viren169]

Here is an interesting play problem that came up the other day…

How would you play the following hand (Gameall) in 6C by South with no opposition bidding on a heart lead?

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What are the possible lines together with the odds of success?

BR
Viren

[lesh]

I dont know the odds but my line will be:
1) duck heart
2) win lets say he return
3) draw trumps
4) cash Adi
5) cash 2top spades
6) draw the rest of the trumps - on the last trump(position 8♠ x♦ x♣ against J♠ KJ♦) it is possible for an automatic squeez against East with Q♠ and Q♦
7) 8♠ x♦ against KJ♦ in hand
8) If 10♠ and/or Q♠ hasnt dropped,play a small ♦ and decide whether to play on squeez in East with Q10♠ and Q♦ or just to finess. Watching the discards carefully and hope to gain some useful information.


Did I make it or not?

[WellSpyder]

I was thinking along the same lines as lesh. But I realise it could make quite a difference which ♥ is led. If the lead is an honour, suggesting West has both K and Q, or a high spot card suggesting East has both K and Q, then it may be better to take the first trick. Now you can draw trumps and try to ruff out ♦Q, and if this fails you still have the chance of a strip squeeze if ♠Q is in the same hand as the ♥honours.

Edit: this line is still an option, of course, if the heart honours are split but East plays one at T1.

[Viren169]

 lesh, on 2010-November-09, 06:42, said:

I dont know the odds but my line will be:
1) duck heart
2) win lets say he return
3) draw trumps
4) cash Adi
5) cash 2top spades
6) draw the rest of the trumps - on the last trump(position 8♠ x♦ x♣ against J♠ KJ♦) it is possible for an automatic squeez against East with Q♠ and Q♦
7) 8♠ x♦ against KJ♦ in hand
8) If 10♠ and/or Q♠ hasnt dropped,play a small ♦ and decide whether to play on squeez in East with Q10♠ and Q♦ or just to finess. Watching the discards carefully and hope to gain some useful information.


Did I make it or not?

Good effort...

Assuming best defence, how do you play the diamonds finesse or drop?

Just a slight improvement on your line is to keep the heart in hand, coming down to the following 3 card ending...

8 - x x

- x KJ -

On playing the last club RHO pitches a spade and you + RHO pitch a heart. And on playing the diamond RHO follows small… Now do you play for the drop or finesse?


1. Could you apply the vacant spaces rule here with club suit distribution known (3-1 with LHO)? (and hearts (4-4))
2. Or are the odds still in favour of RHO holding the Q of diamonds knowing he started off with at least 5 diamonds (watching the discards).


BR
Viren

[inquiry]

6♣ by south.

Odd's change during play, of course. So let's have some information about the hand. We will start with what heart was lead, when I ducked in dummy, what heart did EAST play.

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You have a ton of different lines available, some playing for drops, some for a squeeze (duck first heart), some for an endplay (win first heart)

• Straight forward finesse of the ♦Q. At this point that is roughly 50-50
• Try to drop the singleton ♦Q then finesse the ♦Q, roughly 50-50, but slightly better than line 1 (50.48% compared to 50%)
• Try to drop the doubleton ♠Q, the the singleton ♦Q, then take the ♦finessee (nearly 10% chance on ♠play plus dropping singleton ♦Q offside, and 50-50 on the remaining ♦ hook, so this comes to 55% chance
• Win first ♥, try to drop the tripleton (or shorter) ♦Q (around 36%, which less than 50-50, but see below)
• Duck the first heart, then try to drop the tripleton ♦Q followed by positional ♠-♦ squeeze on West. This makes the 36% of the time the ♦Q is tripleton or less, plus, anytime west has five ♠+ and 4♦+
• Same as #4 above, plus, cash one ♠ unblock the ♠9 keeping a small ♠, if ♠Q does not fall, run ♣'s discarding ♠J and keep low ♠. This gives you several squeeze chances. The simple squeeze on West if he has ♦Q and any 5♠'s, or ♦Q and QT(x) of ♠, or if East has ♦Q and any 5♠ or ♦Q and ♠QT(x). You are keeping the ♥2♠2 in your hand, so if East has ♦Q, and one of the top ♠(Q or T), he will have to keep a ♥ and the ♦, so West keeps ♠Qx or ♠Tx, so you can do guard squeeze as well. The odds of this line are relatively high, if you can read the ending (36% ♦Q falls), small percentage singleton ♠Q falls, then either normal squeeze is a bit of a long shot, but the double guard squeeze is a live possibility.
• Win the first heart, play five rounds of trumps, discard a heart and a diamond. Try to read the position. You can throw someone in with the the third round of diamonds or spades or even hearts (if you read it correctrly) for a forced lead away from the queen in the other suit. This requires, for example, the two queens to be in the same hand.

I am guessing I would start with a play for line #6. The actual line, however depends on facts not in evidence. What was the opening lead? (fourth best? Third best or low?). How did ♣'s split? I would play an extra round or two of ♣'s before committing to line 6, so what did they discard?

[gnasher]

 inquiry, on 2010-November-09, 09:44, said:

5. Duck the first heart, then try to drop the tripleton ♦Q followed by positional ♠-♦ squeeze on West. This makes the 36% of the time the ♦Q is tripleton or less, plus, anytime west has five ♠+ and 4♦+

Assuming that they play back a heart at trick two, that seems to suffer from the lack of a late entry to the South hand. I think your #6 has the same problem, if I've understood it correctly.

There is also:
8. Cash one trump, then try to ruff out ♦Q, then take two spade finesses. That's 36 + 64/4 = 52, minus a bit because of the risk of an overruff in diamonds.

[Viren169]

 inquiry, on 2010-November-09, 09:44, said:

6♣ by south.

Odd's change during play, of course. So let's have some information about the hand. We will start with what heart was lead, when I ducked in dummy, what heart did EAST play.

---

You have a ton of different lines available, some playing for drops, some for a squeeze (duck first heart), some for an endplay (win first heart)

• Straight forward finesse of the ♦Q. At this point that is roughly 50-50
• Try to drop the singleton ♦Q then finesse the ♦Q, roughly 50-50, but slightly better than line 1 (50.48% compared to 50%)
• Try to drop the doubleton ♠Q, the the singleton ♦Q, then take the ♦finessee (nearly 10% chance on ♠play plus dropping singleton ♦Q offside, and 50-50 on the remaining ♦ hook, so this comes to 55% chance
• Win first ♥, try to drop the tripleton (or shorter) ♦Q (around 36%, which less than 50-50, but see below)
• Duck the first heart, then try to drop the tripleton ♦Q followed by positional ♠-♦ squeeze on West. This makes the 36% of the time the ♦Q is tripleton or less, plus, anytime west has five ♠+ and 4♦+
• Same as #4 above, plus, cash one ♠ unblock the ♠9 keeping a small ♠, if ♠Q does not fall, run ♣'s discarding ♠J and keep low ♠. This gives you several squeeze chances. The simple squeeze on West if he has ♦Q and any 5♠'s, or ♦Q and QT(x) of ♠, or if East has ♦Q and any 5♠ or ♦Q and ♠QT(x). You are keeping the ♥2♠2 in your hand, so if East has ♦Q, and one of the top ♠(Q or T), he will have to keep a ♥ and the ♦, so West keeps ♠Qx or ♠Tx, so you can do guard squeeze as well. The odds of this line are relatively high, if you can read the ending (36% ♦Q falls), small percentage singleton ♠Q falls, then either normal squeeze is a bit of a long shot, but the double guard squeeze is a live possibility.
• Win the first heart, play five rounds of trumps, discard a heart and a diamond. Try to read the position. You can throw someone in with the the third round of diamonds or spades or even hearts (if you read it correctrly) for a forced lead away from the queen in the other suit. This requires, for example, the two queens to be in the same hand.

I am guessing I would start with a play for line #6. The actual line, however depends on facts not in evidence. What was the opening lead? (fourth best? Third best or low?). How did ♣'s split? I would play an extra round or two of ♣'s before committing to line 6, so what did they discard?

Good analysis Ben!

Best I give you some answers first... on the actual hand the layout is as follows:

The clubs are 3-1 with LHO holding 3
The heart lead was the 2 of hearts (4th best in principle)
RHO played the K and returned the 3 of hearts (if ducked)
Q of spades coming down in 2 is 12.4% (I think)
On the run of the clubs
- RHO is known to hold 4 hearts and 1 club and at least 3 spades and 4 diamonds
- LHO is known to hold 4 hearts and 3 clubs and at least 3 spades and 1 diamond

Hope that helps.

BR
Viren

[lesh]

Good effort...

Assuming best defence, how do you play the diamonds finesse or drop?

Just a slight improvement on your line is to keep the heart in hand, coming down to the following 3 card ending...

8 - x x

- x KJ -

On playing the last club RHO pitches a spade and you + RHO pitch a heart. And on playing the diamond RHO follows small… Now do you play for the drop or finesse?


1. Could you apply the vacant spaces rule here with club suit distribution known (3-1 with LHO)? (and hearts (4-4))
2. Or are the odds still in favour of RHO holding the Q of diamonds knowing he started off with at least 5 diamonds (watching the discards).


BR
Viren
[/quote]

About the slight improvement of the hand. I dont think having x♥ KJ♦ is better than J♠ and KJ ♦ because you misses the automated squeez in East. Furthermore if you can conclude that Q♠ is in East you can safely put K♦.

About the vacant space rule I believe looking at the lead and return would give you more info about the heart distrubution. One sligh improvement would be to ruff 3rd heart to see whether the suit is 6-2. Now counting 6♥ 2♠ 1♦ and 3♣, I think it will be betther to finess Q♦ to be in East because of the ♦ length, unless you know that he has Q♠ and in the 2 card ending he has Q♠ and 1♦.