[mtvesuvius]

The lead is the ♦Q, plan the play.
If you play a Heart now:

Spoiler

RHO will follow with the 6, they play UDCA. LHO will win with the ♥Q and return the ♦J.

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EDIT: Even if you don't agree with this particular auction (I'm not sure I do either), you will wind up in 4♠ after 1♠-1N-2♣-3♠-4♠...

[mikeh]

I think we need trump to be 3-2 (we can pick up some 4-1's but we have a lot of work left to do).

If we play on hearts, how are we planning to enjoy the 9? It's possible but it looks to me as if we need a fair amount of luck...3-3 hearts with one or both honours onside....roughly 25% or so, I think....or Hx onside with the long spade in that hand.

If we ignore hearts, we need to have the clubs sit well for us. Maybe win the diamond, ruff a diamond and lead a small club towards the Q. if LHO rises, we are in great shape...we'll pitch a heart on the diamond, draw two rounds of trump and play on clubs...we make on all 3-2 spade breaks whenever the club K is onside and they rise, unless clubs were 5-1, and even then we are ok since rho may be ruffing with the long trump.

If LHO ducks the club and the Q wins, take the heart pitch, play two rounds of trump and then play club A and a club...winning when clubs are 3-3 and whenever the long club lacks the 3rd spade.

In addition, if we think we can read LHO, we could play a spot when he plays low and then lead the Q back to squash his 10x or Jx....I doubt that I'd ever try that at the table unless I really knew that LHO was the kind who'd always give away the location of the club K.

I think that the club line is a little better than the heart line, tho I don't pretend to have calculated it at all. indeed since the club line depends in part on how LHO defends, it really isn't susceptible to ready calculation at all.

[gnasher]

mikeh, on 2010-November-04, 17:46, said:

Maybe win the diamond, ruff a diamond and lead a small club towards the Q ...

If LHO ducks the club and the Q wins, take the heart pitch, play two rounds of trump and then play club A and a club...winning when clubs are 3-3 and whenever the long club lacks the 3rd spade.

I think that if ♣Q won I'd play a heart to the jack next. If I can make my ♥10 good, I can throw a club on the winning diamond.

[nige1]

mtvesuvius, on 2010-November-04, 17:01, said:

The lead is the ♦Q

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My guess: ♦K, finesse ♥J. Win ♦ return with ♦A discarding a ♣,

• On good day: finesse ♥T, Cash ♥A, ♠AK, ♥9 discarding another ♣. Claim: losing 1♠, 1♥, 1♣.
• More often, a defender will ruff ♥A, hopefully from a three-card trump-holding, Then if ♥9 is not good, you may need a favourable ♣-position or end-play (e.g. ♣K with LHO or doubleton with RHO).

[mikeh]

gnasher, on 2010-November-04, 18:37, said:

I think that if ♣Q won I'd play a heart to the jack next. If I can make my ♥10 good, I can throw a club on the winning diamond.

yes, I like that....I was so focussed on the question of which suit to attack at trick 2 that I stopped thinking.

[rhm]

For all practical purposes you can not make the hand unless trump break. So assume that.
I think you should combine the chances of the ♣ finesse with a favorable position in ♥, which is not only ♥ being 3-3, but for example if East has a doubleton honor in ♥ with exactly 3 trumps. (Discarding a ♥ on the ♦ and playing for the ♣ king to be onside (50%) and a favorable club break (either ♣ to break or that you can ruff the fourth ♣ on the table) is already less likely to work than finding at least one ♥ honor onside (75%) and a favorable ♥ break. However, even if these two chances would be equally likely (which they are not), in the latter case you still have the ♣ finesse in reserve.

Accordingly win with a high ♦ play a ♥, win the next ♦ in dummy, discarding a club and take another ♥ finesse.
Assuming it wins, but the ♥ king has not appeared yet, play next a ♣ to the queen.
West will not be able to give East a ♥ ruff and if East wins and can give West a ♥ ruff, there was never a realistic chance anyway.
However, if East wins and does not give West a ♥ ruff, ♥ will likely break and you get home now.
Should you change your play if East plays the ♥ king on the second round?
This may depend on how good a player East is. Against 99% of all player it is reasonable to assume East has 2 cards in ♥, where playing on clubs now can not win.
Just play your remaining high ♥ from hand, and if it gets ruffed hope that it is from 3 trumps, which is now a better than even chance when trumps break.
Should East play a ♥ honor on the first round of ♥ similar considerations apply. You are in good shape though not home yet. Continuing ♥ is probably best.

Rainer Herrmann

[mtvesuvius]

At the table, I took Nigel's line, and was fortunate to make, however I think Mike's line is much better in theory

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