[Fluffy]

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Match points if it matters.

Partnering gozzilla you become declarer in 4♠, LHO leads ♦10, what's your plan?

[mfa1010]

Hmm, seems my plan is to find east with the ♥J, since that would end all my worries.

[bucky]

Instead of guessing the heart situation (for some reason, my success rate in guessing 2-way finesse is always below 50%), I'd rather bet on RHO holding ♦K. My plan is to eliminate diamonds and force opponents to play heart for me.

And I'd better be right. The only reason partner bids this way (TWO levels higher than the normal call) is his (blind) trust in my declaring ability.

[nigel_k]

A more charitable person would regard North's bidding as a sign of great faith in partner's declarer play. But I'd rather say that if North plays like he bids then it is just as well he is dummy.

Eliminating diamonds and exiting with a club (having discarded one) requires trumps 2-2 since you need to ruff two diamonds and still retain a trump for the endplay. Obviously you can change plan if trumps don't break and still try to find the ♥J but the elimination requires diamonds to be played at trick two so you'll be down whenever the ♦K is on the left which is certainly possible. Call this line A and line B is just guessing the location of the ♥J.

Let's disregard 4-0 trump breaks because they might have bid and it makes the analysis easier. Also assume you will find the ♥J exactly half the time.

If p is the probability that the ♦K is on your right then line A is about 13p/18 because you make on all the 2-2 breaks and half the 3-1 breaks. Line B is 0.5.

So you should choose line A if you think p > 0.69.

[pooltuna]

Fluffy, on 2010-October-26, 16:58, said:

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Match points if it matters.

Partnering gozzilla you become declarer in 4♠, LHO leads ♦10, what's your plan?

to find a new partner ASAP?

[Fluffy]

No matter if you plan not to ride it, you should start with ♦Q at trick 2, if its covered, your troubles are over if spades break, if RHO fails to cover its guessing time.

LHO had

♠10x
♥AJx
♦109x
♣KJxxx