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Scoring: IMP
We reached 6N on the auction:
1N-2♣
2♦-3♣
3♦-4N
6N
East led a small spade. Plan?
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Bid These Hands? Then Play
#1
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- Location:Michigan
- Interests:Science, Sports
Posted 2010-October-06, 22:21
We reached 6N on the auction:
1N-2♣
2♦-3♣
3♦-4N
6N
East led a small spade. Plan?
Kevin Fay
#2
- Group: Advanced Members
- Posts: 2,502
- Joined: 2007-December-22
Posted 2010-October-06, 23:37
I am not sure that the ♣8 helps us, playing a club to the 8 seems to give us no more than ducking a club completely unless I am missing something. Maybe in real life it is possible to lead the ♣8 to the ten, sneaking it past the QJ, but I am going to ignore that sort of thing for now as I find it hard to estimate the chances, and just look at the pure technical lines.
These seem to be (1) Duck a club (e.g. play a club to the 8), and (2) duck a diamond.
Ducking a diamond works when the ♦QJ are short, or when they are not short but the hand with 4 or more diamonds also holds 4 or more clubs.
Ducking a club works when clubs are 3-3, and perhaps (but only if the opponents return a major suit) a crisscross squeeze if one opponent holds the length in both minors, and you can pick it.
Without doing all the numbers, 3-3 clubs alone looks better than the combined chances from ducking a diamond. QJ short diamond is only 1 of the 5-2 combinations and QJx is only 5 of the 4-3 combinations. Then, the chances of clubs not being 3-3, and the long clubs being with the long diamonds should also be relatively small. If these chances really do total less than the 36% for 3-3 clubs, then playing on clubs is best, and it only remains to decide how to play clubs. Playing a club to the ten at trick 2 should only cost when West has QJ doubleton, so maybe it is worthwhile because certainly East will sometimes play low from QJxx.
(Forgot about including QJ of diamonds not short, clubs 3-3, but QJx club with the long diamonds, really I need to do the numbers to be sure that playing on clubs is better, sorry.)
These seem to be (1) Duck a club (e.g. play a club to the 8), and (2) duck a diamond.
Ducking a diamond works when the ♦QJ are short, or when they are not short but the hand with 4 or more diamonds also holds 4 or more clubs.
Ducking a club works when clubs are 3-3, and perhaps (but only if the opponents return a major suit) a crisscross squeeze if one opponent holds the length in both minors, and you can pick it.
Without doing all the numbers, 3-3 clubs alone looks better than the combined chances from ducking a diamond. QJ short diamond is only 1 of the 5-2 combinations and QJx is only 5 of the 4-3 combinations. Then, the chances of clubs not being 3-3, and the long clubs being with the long diamonds should also be relatively small. If these chances really do total less than the 36% for 3-3 clubs, then playing on clubs is best, and it only remains to decide how to play clubs. Playing a club to the ten at trick 2 should only cost when West has QJ doubleton, so maybe it is worthwhile because certainly East will sometimes play low from QJxx.
(Forgot about including QJ of diamonds not short, clubs 3-3, but QJx club with the long diamonds, really I need to do the numbers to be sure that playing on clubs is better, sorry.)
That's impossible. No one can give more than one hundred percent. By definition that is the most anyone can give.
#3
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- Location:Pasadena, CA
Posted 2010-October-07, 02:15
655321, on Oct 6 2010, 10:37 PM, said:
I am not sure that the ♣8 helps us, playing a club to the 8 seems to give us no more than ducking a club completely unless I am missing something. Maybe in real life it is possible to lead the ♣8 to the ten, sneaking it past the QJ, but I am going to ignore that sort of thing for now as I find it hard to estimate the chances, and just look at the pure technical lines.
These seem to be (1) Duck a club (e.g. play a club to the 8), and (2) duck a diamond.
Ducking a diamond works when the ♦QJ are short, or when they are not short but the hand with 4 or more diamonds also holds 4 or more clubs.
Ducking a club works when clubs are 3-3, and perhaps (but only if the opponents return a major suit) a crisscross squeeze if one opponent holds the length in both minors, and you can pick it.
Without doing all the numbers, 3-3 clubs alone looks better than the combined chances from ducking a diamond. QJ short diamond is only 1 of the 5-2 combinations and QJx is only 5 of the 4-3 combinations. Then, the chances of clubs not being 3-3, and the long clubs being with the long diamonds should also be relatively small. If these chances really do total less than the 36% for 3-3 clubs, then playing on clubs is best, and it only remains to decide how to play clubs. Playing a club to the ten at trick 2 should only cost when West has QJ doubleton, so maybe it is worthwhile because certainly East will sometimes play low from QJxx.
(Forgot about including QJ of diamonds not short, clubs 3-3, but QJx club with the long diamonds, really I need to do the numbers to be sure that playing on clubs is better, sorry.)
These seem to be (1) Duck a club (e.g. play a club to the 8), and (2) duck a diamond.
Ducking a diamond works when the ♦QJ are short, or when they are not short but the hand with 4 or more diamonds also holds 4 or more clubs.
Ducking a club works when clubs are 3-3, and perhaps (but only if the opponents return a major suit) a crisscross squeeze if one opponent holds the length in both minors, and you can pick it.
Without doing all the numbers, 3-3 clubs alone looks better than the combined chances from ducking a diamond. QJ short diamond is only 1 of the 5-2 combinations and QJx is only 5 of the 4-3 combinations. Then, the chances of clubs not being 3-3, and the long clubs being with the long diamonds should also be relatively small. If these chances really do total less than the 36% for 3-3 clubs, then playing on clubs is best, and it only remains to decide how to play clubs. Playing a club to the ten at trick 2 should only cost when West has QJ doubleton, so maybe it is worthwhile because certainly East will sometimes play low from QJxx.
(Forgot about including QJ of diamonds not short, clubs 3-3, but QJx club with the long diamonds, really I need to do the numbers to be sure that playing on clubs is better, sorry.)
Why not cash some majors first? Looks like we can't afford to cash 2 hearts but if spades are 5-1 it feels really right/intuitive to me to duck a diamond. If spades were 4-2 it seems intuitive to me to play on clubs.
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