Posted 2010-September-17, 22:08
Assume that you open almost all 11 HCP hands with 5+ long M. This posting supports the comments elsewhere that GF with 13+ HCP (or 12 HCP with a fit) is a good bidding strategy.
Claim 1: Opposite such a Precision opener, forcing to game with 12 HCP over 1M and no fit for partner's major is more likely to get you to the wrong contract than inviting with such a hand.
Assume that you use a 14-16 1NT opening so that your 1M opening is all hands with 11-13 with 5+ cards in the M and 14-15 HCP hands with 5+ in the M but not 5332.
Since I'm not at home where I have done this precise calculation, but a rough calculation for 1H is
About 12.5% of 11, 12, and 13 HCP hands open 1H
About 8.7% of 14 and 15 HCP hands open 1H. (The different percentage is because 5332 hands with 14 and 15 HCP are opened 1NT.)
Using these rough percentages against the probability of 11, 12, etc. HCP, the result is that when partner opens 1H, partner holds 11 HCP about 29% of the time.
I've used DealMaster to look at hands where opener opens 1H with 11 HCP and responder has 0-2 hearts and 12 HCP. Game contracts are highly likely to fail.
So forcing to game with a misfitting 12 HCP means that about 29% of the time, you are placing a losing bet.
OTOH, if you invite with 12 HCP and no fit, you get to the wrong spot (neither over nor underbidding) about 10% of the time. That's much better.
Judgment plays a role, so with 12 HCP that are better because of texture, tenaces, etc, forcing to game is okay. For example, over 1♠, I would force to game with:
♠10x
♥KQx
♦AQJ10x
♣xx
Because this hand is worth more than 12 HCP.
Claim 2: Opposite such a Precision opener, if you have a fit for partner's major and 12 HCP, forcing to game works best.
I haven't done as much research with this class of hands. But limited simulations show a couple of wholly unsurprising exceptions to this. First, if responder is 4333 with 3-card support, an invition is best. Second, if responder has a doubleton with lots of waste, (e.g. QJ, KQ, etc.) an invitation works best. These two exceptions apply judgment in a standard fashion: you downgrade a hand because it is not worth as much as the HCP add up to.