[luke warm]

rio state final on vugraph, this hand:

Scoring: IMP

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West North East South

 1♥    Pass  2♦    Pass
 2♥    Pass  2NT   Pass
 3NT   Pass  6NT   Pass
 Pass  Pass  

i was kibbing (granted i could see all 4 hands), but this didn't look hard from my seat... is it? they were off one... lead was 7♣

[EricK]

I was kibitzing too.

I might be wrong, but after the ♣7 (probably top of doubleton on bidding) to T 4 and 8 and 3 rounds of ♥ showing they divided 3-3, Declarer decided South was more likely to have ♦ length, so playing ♦ might not work, so he went for a strip squeeze against South in case his hand was Kxxx Jxx QTxx xx

As I say, I may be wrong.

Eric

[luke warm]

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yes, this was the point where he found out hearts split... he led diamond to the ace, played off A, K of clubs, led spade to hand, leaving

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from here he played the hearts, throwing a diamond and a spade, then led a spade, down one... i could be wrong, but it seems there are more chances if he'd played low on the first club, especially if he thinks south led from a doubleton... and from the top diagram, he had to play a diamond to the 9.. even if south wins the 10 and returns a spade, he still has the diamond finesse.. but if south has the queen and not the 10, playing the 9 works better

i don't see the downside to this

[Trpltrbl]

A ♦ to the 9 is the best line, gives you 73.42% for 4 tricks.

Mike

[EricK]

Trpltrbl, on Aug 16 2004, 11:55 PM, said:

A ♦ to the 9 is the best line, gives you 73.42% for 4 tricks.

Mike

Does this percentage take into account the fact that South holds exactly 2♣ and 3♥?

Eric

[Flame]

luke warm, on Aug 14 2004, 05:15 PM, said:

i could be wrong, but it seems there are more chances if he'd played low on the first club, especially if he thinks south led from a doubleton...

I dont think you are right here.
As i see it he couldnt know anything for sure from the lead, not how many clubs are in each hand and not about the Q of club, so playing the J taking the free finnese is imo the right move.

The double finnese line is the "obvious" one, but if you really feel south is long in diamond, other lines like the one chosen might be better, also there is a line of cleaning everything and finnesing to the J of diamond (A played before)
this will work when clubs are 3/3 or diamond Q is in north, or when south has 4 cards in diamonds, since he will have nothing but diamonds at this point.