[kgr]

Scoring: IMP

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1♣-1♠
1NT-2♠
AP
 
Lead ♥7, 3th/5th best
I you take the Ace then RHO plays the ♥4 (low enc).
How do you continue? What is your thought process for this hand?
- Play ♣ to discard a ♥ (Maybe person with 2c♣ will have to ruff high)
- play ♦ to the King to try to ruff a ♦
- play trump
...
 
This felt like a difficult hand to me. Is it?

[wclass___]

IMO should duck 1st trick at IMPs.

If RHO returns big ♥, i win, then ...Edit: Better plan - ♦5 to T

[kenrexford]

The opponents are not vulnerable and yet neither of them has made a single call, despite having the majority of the HCP. Therefore, I expect their hands to be extremely flat, and I expect the clubs to be splitting 3-3 way more often than expected. So, I would rise Ace and try to cash three clubs (pitching a heart) before leading a diamond toward my hand. I know that I may not get the chence to ruff a diamond, but I might as well take this finesse and make the opponents lead spades for me.

[pooltuna]

ARCH

A=analyze the opening lead
you did this

R=review the bidding
note that neither opponent was inclined to enter the auction. This is relevant to card placement.

C=count your winners and your losers
looks like 1♥, 3-5♣, 0.5♦,3-4♠ are your winners
2♠, 1♦, 1♥ are your losers.

H=how can I make this hand
you need 4 more tricks and if you can hold ♠ losers to 2 you will make your contract but you need to lead ♠ twice from dummy for the %age play and it would be better if you didn't have to try and cash your 3rd ♣ winner while a low trump was still out. Consequently lead a low ♠ inserting the T if it could win the trick (i.e. cover East's card). Expected defenses with West winning trick 2, ♥ and a ♥, ♥ won by East with a ♦ shift. If the first ruff the 3rd ♥ get to dummy and lead another ♠ to the 9. If the latter cover East's ♦card unless dummy's 9 will do that. Ruff the ♥ continuation and get to dummy to lead a ♠

This is only partially complete. Much more effort for a more complete answer would be required and I ain't Rexford

[kgr]

kenrexford, on Sep 26 2010, 03:13 PM, said:

The opponents are not vulnerable and yet neither of them has made a single call, despite having the majority of the HCP. Therefore, I expect their hands to be extremely flat, and I expect the clubs to be splitting 3-3 way more often than expected. So, I would rise Ace and try to cash three clubs (pitching a heart) before leading a diamond toward my hand. I know that I may not get the chence to ruff a diamond, but I might as well take this finesse and make the opponents lead spades for me.

Thanks all for the answers!! (not sure if the above is best or if it is better to finesse Spades.
If you play 3 ♣'s then LHO will ruff the 3th with ♠J. What are you doing with that?

[kenrexford]

kgr, on Sep 27 2010, 06:22 AM, said:

kenrexford, on Sep 26 2010, 03:13 PM, said:

The opponents are not vulnerable and yet neither of them has made a single call, despite having the majority of the HCP.  Therefore, I expect their hands to be extremely flat, and I expect the clubs to be splitting 3-3 way more often than expected.  So, I would rise Ace and try to cash three clubs (pitching a heart) before leading a diamond toward my hand.  I know that I may not get the chence to ruff a diamond, but I might as well take this finesse and make the opponents lead spades for me.

Thanks all for the answers!! (not sure if the above is best or if it is better to finesse Spades.
If you play 3 ♣'s then LHO will ruff the 3th with ♠J. What are you doing with that?

Well, I traded a heart loser for the spade Jack, which is really funky.

What's the return?

My inclination is to maintain expectation of basically balanced. Perhaps LHO started with AQJ in spades, in which case I cannot go wrong. Perhaps, however, he started with just two spades, presumably both honors. If so, I think restricted choice unless something suggests otherwise later. Hence, my inclination is to play LHO for stiff Ace remaining.

The problem with that line, though, is that I cannot gain playing for that line, because the spade Queen will then be protected. So, I suppose I might as well play for the longer-odds Q-J tight and go for the smother.

[kgr]

kenrexford, on Sep 27 2010, 02:05 PM, said:

kgr, on Sep 27 2010, 06:22 AM, said:

kenrexford, on Sep 26 2010, 03:13 PM, said:

The opponents are not vulnerable and yet neither of them has made a single call, despite having the majority of the HCP.  Therefore, I expect their hands to be extremely flat, and I expect the clubs to be splitting 3-3 way more often than expected.  So, I would rise Ace and try to cash three clubs (pitching a heart) before leading a diamond toward my hand.  I know that I may not get the chence to ruff a diamond, but I might as well take this finesse and make the opponents lead spades for me.

Thanks all for the answers!! (not sure if the above is best or if it is better to finesse Spades.
If you play 3 ♣'s then LHO will ruff the 3th with ♠J. What are you doing with that?

Well, I traded a heart loser for the spade Jack, which is really funky.

What's the return?

My inclination is to maintain expectation of basically balanced. Perhaps LHO started with AQJ in spades, in which case I cannot go wrong. Perhaps, however, he started with just two spades, presumably both honors. If so, I think restricted choice unless something suggests otherwise later. Hence, my inclination is to play LHO for stiff Ace remaining.

The problem with that line, though, is that I cannot gain playing for that line, because the spade Queen will then be protected. So, I suppose I might as well play for the longer-odds Q-J tight and go for the smother.

Sorry. RHO ruffed with the ♠J.
You still discard the ♥?
If you do that then RHO returns the ♥K.
 
 
PS: You are confident that your line is better then the other line that was suggested (Immediate Spade finesse) or is it too difficult to really know which line is best?

[wclass___]

kgr, on Sep 27 2010, 07:43 AM, said:

PS: You are confident that your line is better then the other line that was suggested (Immediate Spade finesse) or is it too difficult to really know which line is best?

Ducking heart at trick one is best. And it is not that close or difficult.

[Free]

I'd also duck the ♥ at trick 1...

[Fluffy]

think before trick one, you either take ♥A and run clubs, or duck first heart.

[kgr]

Why is ducking ♥A so much better?

[Fluffy]

kgr, on Sep 27 2010, 03:41 PM, said:

Why is ducking ♥A so much better?

anytime you have Ax towards xxx/xxxx or Axx/Axxx towards xx is normally right to duck to cut down comunication for the opponents and open them for you. Also you force the opponents to make a decision at trick 2 with the less ammount of info. There are obvious exceptions (don't want a side suit open before you stablish dummy's suit, etc), but the "normal" play is to duck.

[mikeh]

A bit late to the thread, but here goes how I think I would think at the table:

1. Duck the heart. This seems right for a lot of reasons.....even if I couldn't think of any, it is almost always right to duck in the absence of a strong reason not to. While pitching a heart may seem like a good reason, I think this is an illusion. We can always fall back on pitching a diamond...the opps can kill the diamond ruff anytime they want, so we are simply swapping pitches...and...in the mean time....

2. RHO has to make a play at trick 2 and that will determine how we go forward. Discussing how we will proceed takes too much time...not because any of it is difficult, but because there are so many variants....let's say they lead a diamond.....fly the K...does it hold? Let's say they switch to trump right now...put in the 10 and see what happens. Do they return a heart? Now my 9 in dummy may become a useful card....probably not, but still.....

I would run a lot of these variants through my mind before ducking at trick one..... because that exercise sometimes sets off a warning.....ooops....if I duck and they do 'this', I am in trouble....so better not duck....and it takes less time to think about all of this than it does to write it out, or to read about it.

I remember reading, many years ago, an article by Kantar on planning the play of a contract where nothing was clear....where the best line depended on what the opps did and what one learned as the play proceeded....he called these kinds of hands 'scrambles'...where it really didn't pay to commit at trick one to a line if, by deferring the decision, you'd likely have more info..and where disaster wasn't likely to strike by a delay.

Another 'rule of thumb' arises from an observation I heard, again many years ago, that on complex hands good players tend to lose their tricks early, while lesser players lost them late...and usually lost more of them. Losing tricks early has the benefit of tightening up the hands, while affording increased information.

[kenrexford]

If the third round of clubs is ruffed, I will still pitch the heart. I am still trading a heart for the spade Jack.

And, I still think the heart pop and three quick clubs is right, notwithstanding others' views. Despite what actually happened, I think the odds of the 3-3 split are tremendous, and I am in great shape when that happens. When it does not, I still shorten the spade risk substantially, as the person ruffing in (given expected balanced hands) should more often have the long spade, traded for a heart loser.

This seems like a quick compression play if clubs do not behave.

[bid_em_up]

Seems to me that it's right to win the 2nd heart and play a trump to hand, intending to put in the 9 if RHO plays small.

[kgr]

Thanks all for the answers!!
Below the actual hands dealt by Jack

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Jack thinks that ♥A at trick one is slightly better (98.3 vs 88.1) and would continue with a low ♠ in trick 2.
(It is taking 1000 samples to do this. But I can imagine that playing ♥A is better if you know double dummy what the best play is in trick 2; while in reality it is possible that ♥ duck is better).