[655321]

Cyberyeti, on Sep 21 2010, 11:11 AM, said:

655321, on Sep 21 2010, 10:30 AM, said:

Cyberyeti, on Sep 21 2010, 08:44 AM, said:

Depends what I open, if I open 1♦ it's easy:

Not so easy this time it seems. It is customary on the forums when given both hands to bid to notice the best contract then construct an auction, however improbable, to reach it. 7♥ is a fairly abominable contract.

Abominable being slightly with the odds I think.

I haven't done exact numbers where the break in one suit affects the distibution of other suits, nor have I taken into account entries, etc when playing the hand, but the a priori numbers a good enough to give a rough idea:-

Quote

If diamonds and hearts behave you're cold for this.

35.05%

Quote

If diamonds behave and hearts are 4-1 onside, and the third round club ruff stands up or the Q drops in 1 or 2 you're fine.

Diamonds coming in for 5 tricks and hearts 4-1 onside (including singleton J offside) is 7.30%. The chance of dropping a singleton or doubleton ♣Q is less than 10%, for 0.71% in total. The chance of clubs being 4-3 is 62%, for 4.54% in total. On top of that you will occasionally be ably to ruff the 3rd round of clubs even when they are 5-2, but that will be a very low percentage number which I have not included. All up, I get 5.25% for this.

Quote

If hearts are 3-2 and one ruff establishes the diamonds, you need the queen of clubs to drop in 1, 2 or 3 rounds.

7.96%, the a priori odds of ruffing out the ♣Q are 36.3%, without taking entries into account.

Quote

There are also plenty of possiblilities if J♥ is single and some where J♦ is.

The chance of these events (not the chance of making the contract given these events) are 2.8% for the ♥J singleton onside (I already included most of the ♥J singleton offside) and 2.4% for the ♦J being singleton.

I don't see that you can stretch these numbers into anything other than a comfortably anti-percentage grand. So, if you want to double-dummy an auction to the bad 7♥, fair enough, but you could consider leaving out the bit about how easy these hands are for you.

[kenrexford]

Seems easy using normal methods.

As an aside, using a few abnormal methods:

New Frontiers
P-2♣(strong with usually less than 4 spades)
2♦(GF)-2♠(four hearts, longer minor (or 4-1-4-4)
3♣(artificial heart raise -- no shortness)-3♦(diamonds)
3♥(heart honor)-3♠(cue)
4♦(diamond honor)...now thinking grand

Modified "Kokish"
P-2♣
2♦(GF)-2♥(4-card major with longer minor, or 5+ heart unbalanced)
2♠(yes?)-2NT(4-card major, longer minor)
3♣(yes?)-3♦(diamonds plus major)
3♥(hearts?)-4♣(yes, cue)
4♦(diamond honor, interest)-4NT(RKCB)
[one]...now thinking grand, again

[Cyberyeti]

655321, on Sep 21 2010, 06:45 PM, said:

Cyberyeti, on Sep 21 2010, 11:11 AM, said:

655321, on Sep 21 2010, 10:30 AM, said:

Cyberyeti, on Sep 21 2010, 08:44 AM, said:

Depends what I open, if I open 1♦ it's easy:

Not so easy this time it seems. It is customary on the forums when given both hands to bid to notice the best contract then construct an auction, however improbable, to reach it. 7♥ is a fairly abominable contract.

Abominable being slightly with the odds I think.

I haven't done exact numbers where the break in one suit affects the distibution of other suits, nor have I taken into account entries, etc when playing the hand, but the a priori numbers a good enough to give a rough idea:-

Quote

If diamonds and hearts behave you're cold for this.

35.05%

Quote

If diamonds behave and hearts are 4-1 onside, and the third round club ruff stands up or the Q drops in 1 or 2 you're fine.

Diamonds coming in for 5 tricks and hearts 4-1 onside (including singleton J offside) is 7.30%. The chance of dropping a singleton or doubleton ♣Q is less than 10%, for 0.71% in total. The chance of clubs being 4-3 is 62%, for 4.54% in total. On top of that you will occasionally be ably to ruff the 3rd round of clubs even when they are 5-2, but that will be a very low percentage number which I have not included. All up, I get 5.25% for this.

Quote

If hearts are 3-2 and one ruff establishes the diamonds, you need the queen of clubs to drop in 1, 2 or 3 rounds.

7.96%, the a priori odds of ruffing out the ♣Q are 36.3%, without taking entries into account.

Quote

There are also plenty of possiblilities if J♥ is single and some where J♦ is.

The chance of these events (not the chance of making the contract given these events) are 2.8% for the ♥J singleton onside (I already included most of the ♥J singleton offside) and 2.4% for the ♦J being singleton.

I don't see that you can stretch these numbers into anything other than a comfortably anti-percentage grand. So, if you want to double-dummy an auction to the bad 7♥, fair enough, but you could consider leaving out the bit about how easy these hands are for you.

If I add up your percentages correctly, I get it to around 48.3% plus some small extra bits so it's pretty close to exactly 50-50 (with the complication that the spade lead reduces this slightly, and that if hearts are 3-2, diamonds are more likely to behave, but this only adds about 0.6% overall). At the point you choose whether to bit it or not this is not an exact science. It's certainly not abominable although not one you'd want to be in given the chance of people not bidding the small slam.

For example, you can have a slam on a finesse where one auction says it can't be better than a finesse, and another says it can't be worse than one, so it's correct to bid it on one but not the other.

This is one of those cases, partner has a pretty unsuitable hand, and it's still around evens. The chances of partner holding any of a a third diamond, J♦, J♥, Q♣ instead of the J vs the chance that he's 4432 or missing the J♣ or 10♥.

If you know, looking at the big hand that partner has ace to 4 hearts, at least semi balanced and the king of diamonds to 1-3 plus say up to 3 other points that aren't the king of spades, I'd suggest that the grand is with the odds at the point you bid it.

[655321]

Yes well, the word abominable was my feeble attempt at humor.

[jdonn]

kenrexford, on Sep 21 2010, 09:17 PM, said:

Seems easy using normal methods.

As an aside, using a few abnormal methods:

New Frontiers
P-2♣(strong with usually less than 4 spades)
2♦(GF)-2♠(four hearts, longer minor (or 4-1-4-4)
3♣(artificial heart raise -- no shortness)-3♦(diamonds)
3♥(heart honor)-3♠(cue)
4♦(diamond honor)...now thinking grand

Modified "Kokish"
P-2♣
2♦(GF)-2♥(4-card major with longer minor, or 5+ heart unbalanced)
2♠(yes?)-2NT(4-card major, longer minor)
3♣(yes?)-3♦(diamonds plus major)
3♥(hearts?)-4♣(yes, cue)
4♦(diamond honor, interest)-4NT(RKCB)
[one]...now thinking grand, again

I don't mean to imply any dishonesty on your part but I always wonder what your expensive bids show. Rarely do I see you produce any auction but those in which after the first round 80% of the bids are the cheapest available call and the other 20% are the next cheapest. No wonder you always get so much information across!

[jdonn]

Fluffy, on Sep 21 2010, 07:26 AM, said:

I'd start with 1♦-1♥ but after that it looks like a leap of faith to reach slam.

Is that very surprising? What does opening 1♦ gain you except missed games and slams?

[Fluffy]

ok, soemthing different

1♣-1NT (strong)-(balanced8-14)
2♣-2♥ (relay)-(4♥ 8-11)
2♠-3♣ (relay)-(4♣)
3♦-3♠ (relay).(3424)
4♣-4♦ (aces)-(1 ace)
4♠-5♣(kings)-(1 king)
5♠-6♥ (wich king)-(diamond)
7♥

ugh I end up in 7 for lack of knowledge about ♣Q and ♦J

[Fluffy]

jdonn, on Sep 22 2010, 12:39 PM, said:

Fluffy, on Sep 21 2010, 07:26 AM, said:

I'd start with 1♦-1♥ but after that it looks like a leap of faith to reach slam.

Is that very surprising? What does opening 1♦ gain you except missed games and slams?

glad at least you bother to read my posts , I realiced it was stupid to bid 1♦ on this hand since it doesn't help you to reach slam, but though nobody noticed .


If I opened 2♦ to show 22-23 balanced I don't think I'd play slam either. I'd start a bit different, but 31 balanced-balanced still don't produce slam very often.

[hanp]

The 33-HCP rule doesn't quite apply when there is a 4-4 fit, especially when one of the hands can be semi-balanced. I think responder is worth one move and if so, opener will certainly take it to slam.

[jdonn]

Yes, certainly north would invite slam, and though south has just 22 which is minimum that is made up of all aces kings and queens with no jacks, plus he has two doubletons, plus he has the diamond ten in his long suit. All of those things make pushing the rest of the way toward slam quite clear.

Fluffy you are always honest but this time you are being too honest for your own good

[ONEferBRID]

mich-b, on Sep 21 2010, 05:43 AM, said:

Perhaps:

P      - 2♣
2♦ - 2NT
3♣ - 3♥
3♠ ....
.........  6♥

3♠ = Artificial , agreeing ♥ , slam invite.
(If you dont play this, bid whatever agrees ♥s and invites slam, maybe 4♦ is cue for you?)

I think 3S! is the proper call when Responder has a Major suit fit/slammish.
Bidding the other-Major cue agrees the Major... and the cue is artificial.

Rebidding 4D ( or 4C ) is a sequence reserved to show NO fit ( Responder has the other-Major ) and a longer minor/ slammish:

2NT - 3C ( regular Stayman )
3H - 4C/4D = natural, 4s/5+minor, slammish

[kenrexford]

jdonn, on Sep 22 2010, 07:34 AM, said:

kenrexford, on Sep 21 2010, 09:17 PM, said:

Seems easy using normal methods.

As an aside, using a few abnormal methods:

New Frontiers
P-2♣(strong with usually less than 4 spades)
2♦(GF)-2♠(four hearts, longer minor (or 4-1-4-4)
3♣(artificial heart raise -- no shortness)-3♦(diamonds)
3♥(heart honor)-3♠(cue)
4♦(diamond honor)...now thinking grand

Modified "Kokish"
P-2♣
2♦(GF)-2♥(4-card major with longer minor, or 5+ heart unbalanced)
2♠(yes?)-2NT(4-card major, longer minor)
3♣(yes?)-3♦(diamonds plus major)
3♥(hearts?)-4♣(yes, cue)
4♦(diamond honor, interest)-4NT(RKCB)
[one]...now thinking grand, again

I don't mean to imply any dishonesty on your part but I always wonder what your expensive bids show. Rarely do I see you produce any auction but those in which after the first round 80% of the bids are the cheapest available call and the other 20% are the next cheapest. No wonder you always get so much information across!

Well, that's kind of the point to re-structuring system, eh?

Take the new Frontiers approach. A 2♦ opening shows 4+ spades. This enables a 2NT response to agree fit, which is fabulous. Higher bids typically show no fit with positives OR fits with unique holdings.

When you instead open 2♣ and deny four spades (unless Kokish-strength balanced), and this enables 2♠ to promise four hearts, and 3♣ as a general heart raise, other bids above 3♣ showing case-specific heart raises, the bids all are "the cheapest available" because it was designed that way.

Two takes, then.

Dishonesty, which would be hard to accomplish, seeing as I have committed the structure to writing, publishing the same, such that I could be called out easily, or

Awe. (LOL)

[ONEferBRID]

Aside from the "bad slam" aspect on a Sp lead, here is a Control System ( Hamada's ) over 2C openings that has always amazed me.
Hammy reached slams that were difficult by the "normal" route.
The number of Responder's Aces and Kings are known BELOW 4NT, and 4NT! asks for outside Queens.
In brief:
Over 2C ( Opener has 23 + points or no more than 4 losers; must have some defensive tricks) :
2D = 0/1 control (maximum of one King)
2H = 2 Controls (Can be 1 Ace or 2 Kings)
2S = 3 Controls (1 Ace and 1 King)
2NT = 3 Controls (3 Kings)
3C = 4 Controls (2 Aces or 1 Ace and 2 kings)
3D = 5 Controls (2 Aces and 1 king or 1 Ace and 3 Kings)

♠ 732
♥ AT73
♦ K8
♣ J942

♠ A4
♥ KQ82
♦ AQT32
♣ AK

p - 2C
2S! ( 1 Ace and 1 King ) - 2NT
3C! ( Stayman ) - 3H
4H ( no need to agree artificially, since # of Ctrls are known ) - 4NT! ( Q's-ask)*
5C! ( no outside Queens ) - 6H ( doesn't know which outside K, but no matter)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
* 4NT! asks for outside Queens:
5C = no Q
5D = Queen in a minor suit
5H = Queen in a major suit
5S = 2 Queens - same color.
5NT = 2 Queens - different color.
6C = 3queens.

If Responder had the Club Q ( instead of the J ), the 6H is a virtual lock ( pitch of Declarer's losing Sp on the Cl Q ).

[stegenborg]

Thanks for all the suggestions.

Our auction developed with opener showing 22-24 balanced then responder bid Stayman.
This is more or less what most of you have suggested.
Unfortunately responder was lazy and just bid 4♥ over 3♥.
Afterward we discussed if responder should have cuebid.
He probably should but opener is close to a whole trick stonger after the fit is found because of his distribution,
so it is not that easy to visualize a near lay down slam with responder's hand.

I like Ken Rexford's New Frontier method, which is very good with this hand.
Soon I will read the book and some day I will try to play it.
Do anybody know when I can expect this hand again :-)

With standard Polish Club I think it will be easy too:
1♣ - 1♥ (4+♥ 7+)
2♦ (3+♥ GF) - 2♥ (4♥ 7-10)
very good space for some natural continuation to 6♥

Now I am reading about it. Some day I will try to play it.
Do anybody know when I can expect this hand for the third time :-)

The 6NT won. Unfair you say? Well the team still lost 5-25.

Kristian

[Cascade]

Fluffy, on Sep 23 2010, 12:58 AM, said:

jdonn, on Sep 22 2010, 12:39 PM, said:

Fluffy, on Sep 21 2010, 07:26 AM, said:

I'd start with 1♦-1♥ but after that it looks like a leap of faith to reach slam.

Is that very surprising? What does opening 1♦ gain you except missed games and slams?

glad at least you bother to read my posts , I realiced it was stupid to bid 1♦ on this hand since it doesn't help you to reach slam, but though nobody noticed .


If I opened 2♦ to show 22-23 balanced I don't think I'd play slam either. I'd start a bit different, but 31 balanced-balanced still don't produce slam very often.

If south finds out about the ♦K she will become much more interested in slam.

We play a strong (nearly balanced 2♦) technically 23+ but I would probably upgrade this hand then the auction would proceed

2♦ 2♠ Puppet to no trumps
2NT 3♣ Puppet Stayman
3♦ 3♠ no five card major / Hearts
4♣ 4♦ Cues
4♠ 5♣ Kickback / One
5♠ 6♥ Kings? / No

If we open 1♦ then we will have to make something up since we don't have a rebid for a balanced hand this strong. I have experimented with splinters into strong holdings like AK and that would work here

1♦ 1♥
4♣ 4♦ Splinter / Cue
4♠ etc as above

Actually maybe I have been pessimistic and we might reach seven. In the bidding seven is pretty good or at least enticing from the south hands perspective and that hand is in control.

The ♦J would make it excellent. The ♥J would improve the chance as would just any third diamond. In the second auction a 5th heart would improve prospects.

Oh well if we get too high opposite a minimum.

[4CardsMan]

Playing my own methods, 2 Diamonds is strong and natural. It goes
2♦ 2♥*
2NT* 3♥
3♠ 4♦
4NT 5♦*
5NT 6♥
2 Hearts is artificial and negative, 2NT shows four hearts, and 3 Hearts agrees trumps. Cue-bids and BRB (Bowers Roman Blackwood) follow. 5 Diamonds shows one ace and a key card in either suit. 5NT tries for seven. Easy.
2 Diamonds as strong natural and forcing fixes a lot of problems with a strong 2 Clubs, obviating the need to open 2NT or rebid 2NT with five-four distribution.

[manudude03]

If that North hand is a negative, what's a positive

Anyway, think I'd be bidding (hopefully):

2C-2D strong, waiting
2NT-3C 23-24 balanced, puppet stayman
3D-3S 1 or 2 4 card majors, 4!h
4C-4D good hand for slam-cue, cue
4NT-5D RKC, 1/4
6H

Maybe opener will bid 5NT (still ending in 6H), but that's the gist of it.

[gordontd]

2♣ openers with 4M + 5m are a problem. One solution (that originated with Robson, I think) is to play 2♣-2♦-3M as showing 4M + 5♦, and to play that after 2♣-2♦-3♣, 3♦ asks for a four-card major. You give up the suit-setting 3M rebid, but the only time I've ever had a hand for that was just after I adopted this treatment!

[kenrexford]

gordontd, on Sep 24 2010, 04:39 AM, said:

2♣ openers with 4M + 5m are a problem. One solution (that originated with Robson, I think) is to play 2♣-2♦-3M as showing 4M + 5♦, and to play that after 2♣-2♦-3♣, 3♦ asks for a four-card major. You give up the suit-setting 3M rebid, but the only time I've ever had a hand for that was just after I adopted this treatment!

That solution is OK, but then 4351 opposite a 5-card heart suit is a problem.

There are better solutions.