[kgr]

Scoring: IMP

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West Open 2♠ Muiderberg. Weak with 5c♠ and 4c minor.
(2♠)-Pass-(Pass)-DBL
(Pass)-3♣-(Pass)-3NT
AP
 
LHO leads a small ♦. How do you play?
(I misplayed this because I was not paying enough attention)

[pooltuna]

Spoiler

I make my contract of course 2♦] + 4♣+ 2♥ + 1♠

ARCH
EDIT: initially didn't realize I was responding in B/I

[kgr]

pooltuna, on Sep 19 2010, 05:05 PM, said:

Spoiler

I make my contract of course 2♦] + 4♣+ 2♥ + 1♠

That is what I did when I didn't pay attention

[pooltuna]

kgr, on Sep 19 2010, 10:22 AM, said:

pooltuna, on Sep 19 2010, 05:05 PM, said:

  I make my contract of course 2♦] + 4♣+ 2♥ + 1♠  

That is what I did when I didn't pay attention

can't be much of a misplay at IMPS

[vuroth]

kgr, on Sep 19 2010, 09:32 AM, said:

How do you play?

I play

Spoiler

low from dummy.

[kgr]

pooltuna, on Sep 19 2010, 05:59 PM, said:

kgr, on Sep 19 2010, 10:22 AM, said:

pooltuna, on Sep 19 2010, 05:05 PM, said:

<!-- HIDDEN begin --><span class='hiddenpost'>  I make my contract of course 2♦] + 4♣+ 2♥ + 1♠ </span><!-- HIDDEN end --> 

That is what I did when I didn't pay attention

can't be much of a misplay at IMPS

Not much but at the end every IMP can be important.

[kgr]

vuroth, on Sep 19 2010, 08:24 PM, said:

kgr, on Sep 19 2010, 09:32 AM, said:

How do you play?

I play

Spoiler

low from dummy.

I took the first trick with ♦A and continued with ♣A.
What should you play next?

[hanp]

AK of hearts.

[the hog]

Hidden

Spoiler

Ace of D, AK of H. If Q does not drop, A od C and another C

[kgr]

My thought was to cash the ♥A. In the actual case LHO was 5=0=5=3.
But if LHO follows to ♥A;
- is it best to cash ♥K as well and play LHO for ♥Qx
- or then play ♣ and if LHO follows to 3♣'s play him for 5=1=4=3 and finesse ♥'s (...or would you never risk that at IMP's in case he opened Muiderbarg with 5=2=3=3?)

[Free]

lol @ Muiderberg with 5=2=3=3. That's a clear example of an adjusted score to +3 imps if they do it (these days TD even announces this, you should know this).

Just play ♥AK, you know many open 2M on crappy 5422 hands.

[kgr]

Free, on Sep 20 2010, 12:01 PM, said:

lol @ Muiderberg with 5=2=3=3. That's a clear example of an adjusted score to +3 imps if they do it (these days TD even announces this, you should know this).

Just play ♥AK, you know many open 2M on crappy 5422 hands.

But if Muiderberg with 5233 is not allowed; what is most likely?:
- 5242 with ♥Qx
- 5143
I would think the second one and it is better to only cash ♥A and finesse ♥ if LHO appears to have 3c♣?

[Free]

kgr, on Sep 20 2010, 11:11 AM, said:

Free, on Sep 20 2010, 12:01 PM, said:

lol @ Muiderberg with 5=2=3=3.  That's a clear example of an adjusted score to +3 imps if they do it (these days TD even announces this, you should know this). 

Just play ♥AK, you know many open 2M on crappy 5422 hands.

But if Muiderberg with 5233 is not allowed; what is most likely?:
- 5242 with ♥Qx
- 5143
I would think the second one and it is better to only cash ♥A and finesse ♥ if LHO appears to have 3c♣?

Since when is it impossible for LHO to have 4 ♣s?

This is the moment where we need to make a decision, and there's no way back. Playing ♥AK is perfectly safe, and gives you a chance for 2 overtricks. Playing only ♥A and finessing later not 100% safe (even if the condition is met), and can only generate 1 overtrick "if if if". So it seems pretty clear to just play the safe line with possible +2 and without all the "if"s.

[billw55]

Would be more interesting as a matchpoint problem ..

[Stephen Tu]

Quote

This is the moment where we need to make a decision, and there's no way back. Playing ♥AK is perfectly safe, and gives you a chance for 2 overtricks. Playing only ♥A and finessing later not 100% safe (even if the condition is met), and can only generate 1 overtrick "if if if". So it seems pretty clear to just play the safe line with possible +2 and without all the "if"s

Uh, explain to me how finessing later isn't safe if LHO follows to 2+ clubs, unless LHO is reasonably likely to psyche Muiderberg on 4-bagger spades? (or 3 bagger spade if followed to 3+ clubs)

It seems to me if you rate the possibility of an outright psyche neglible, that the finesse is going to be +EV compared to cashing ♥AK.

[Free]

Stephen Tu, on Sep 20 2010, 06:47 PM, said:

Quote

This is the moment where we need to make a decision, and there's no way back. Playing ♥AK is perfectly safe, and gives you a chance for 2 overtricks. Playing only ♥A and finessing later not 100% safe (even if the condition is met), and can only generate 1 overtrick "if if if". So it seems pretty clear to just play the safe line with possible +2 and without all the "if"s

Uh, explain to me how finessing later isn't safe if LHO follows to 2+ clubs, unless LHO is reasonably likely to psyche Muiderberg on 4-bagger spades? (or 3 bagger spade if followed to 3+ clubs)

It seems to me if you rate the possibility of an outright psyche neglible, that the finesse is going to be +EV compared to cashing ♥AK.

- What will you do if LHO appears to have 4♣?
- If LHO shows 3♣ exactly you can still go down if he psyched the 5233 hand (but these days this is penalized by the TD in our region) or if he put a ♣ between his ♠s and has a 4243.
- If he shows 2♣ LHO can still have 5242 and finessing may give the contract away.

[Stephen Tu]

Quote

- What will you do if LHO appears to have 4♣?

Finesse? If it loses, LHO was 5224, he has no diamond to return to east, you still get 9 tricks. Aren't you OK unless LHO psyched 2s on 2-2-5-4?

Quote

- If LHO shows 3♣ exactly you can still go down if he psyched the 5233 hand (but these days this is penalized by the TD in our region) or if he put a ♣ between his ♠s and has a 4243.

If he has 5-2-3-3, then East started with 4 diamonds, no? They get CK, HQ, 2 diamonds if I take a losing hook, I still have 9 tricks no?

Same idea if 4243.

Only in trouble if 3253. I think I am willing to risk that.

Quote

- If he shows 2♣ LHO can still have 5242 and finessing may give the contract away.

??? Same 2d + 1C + 1h lost if no psyche? Admittedly greater risk of 4252 and "club in with the spades".

[manudude03]

You'll go down finessing if LHO opened on 5251 or 5350, though the latter is unlikely. It's imps, i wouldn't stress too much about the overtrick, just whack down AK.

[Stephen Tu]

Well of course we were planning on cashing out if LHO started with stiff/void club. The question is what to do when LHO turns up with 2 or more clubs. I think hooking is way better, Free claimed it was "unsafe", but I fail to see why.

If LHO 5251, not whacking down AK loses 1 imp when he holds Qx.
If LHO 5242, hook gains 1 imp vs. xx, loses 2 imps vs. Qx, should roughly break even?
If LHO 5143, you gain an imp by hooking. This is more common than case 1, no?