Posted 2010-September-13, 15:26
OK i read the thread. I see most people said 1N, we have talked about that.
Phil likes pass, I agree that pass and then cuebid over a X would be a reasonable description, but what are the odds that it's going to go:
1D 1H p p X ?
If partner has short hearts, the opps will often raise. True maybe LHO has a yarb and won't even at this vulnerability, but it seems really likely partner won't have a stiff heart, he'll have a doubleton.
In that case, our pass then cuebid mighht well have gone past our top spot of 1N which partner would have bid over a X. If our top spot is not 1N it will often be 2S in the 4-3, which we would have gotten to by Xing.
But what about when LHO raises to 2H? We have no bid on 1D 1H p 2H p p ? Double is penalty. We can try 2N for the minors, but we again might have passed our top spot of 2S, and we haven't shown any values yet and might have gotten screwed out of 3N or 5m.
And what about 1D 1H p p p ? I view that as extremely likely. Partner with a weak NT will pass (and given their failure to bid 2H, he will often have 3 hearts). That is very bad for us r/w at MP when we could have doubled and played 1N! We might get a lucky +100 vs +90, but more likely we are going +100 vs +120 or +50 vs +90 or something. I will never risk this happening.
So I really think pass is not good.
I think 2C and 2H are just wild overbids, we have a 4333 10 count with no heart stopper, where are we going? Driving so high at MP with this seems like suicide, again my main goal is to just get a nice plus in 1N or 2S on this hand. I have no other goals.
I see the biggest downside of double as being we might get to 4S when it's wrong. That's a risk I'm willing to take, my hand is quite good and they overcalled so partner is unlikely to have a GF opposite a negative double. If it does happen, who knows maybe I luck out and 4S is my top spot. Generally this hand will be us playing a partial and I want to guarantee that it's 1N or 2S and not 1H or 2D or 3D or whatever.