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playing checkback (wich is standard here) it is easy to get to clubs
1♣-1♥ (or 1♠)
2NT-3♣
3♠
3♠ showing 3+ spades but denying 4♥ so must have 4+ clubs. Next 4♣ is not a cue but natural and for some partnerships you will play 6 keycard blackwood now or just 5, but playing in clubs is obvious.
bid zis
#21
- World International Master without a clue
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Posted 2010-August-28, 03:20
#22
- Andy Bowles
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Posted 2010-August-28, 04:06
I was talking about 7♣, not 6♠. I assume that's why this hand was posted.
On a diamond lead, 7♣ is only slightly worse than 6♣; on a non-diamond lead it's much worse. So, we should consider 7♣, but the decision depends on the likelihood of a diamond lead against 6♣, and the likely contract at the other table.
For example, suppose that we thought that they'd be in 6♣ at the other table, and we thought there was a 50% chance of a diamond lead against 6♣. To make the arithmetic easier, assume that the chance of spades coming in is 50%.
7♣ will:
- Gain 13 IMPs 50% of the time
- Lose 17 IMPs 25% of the time.
for an average gain of 2.25 IMPs.
On the other hand, if we think they're likely to be in game at the other table (still with a 50% chance of a diamond lead), 7♣ will:
- Gain 4 IMPs 50% of the time
- Lose 25 IMPs 25% of the time.
- Lose 3 IMPs 25% of the time.
for an average loss of 4.37 IMPs.
On a diamond lead, 7♣ is only slightly worse than 6♣; on a non-diamond lead it's much worse. So, we should consider 7♣, but the decision depends on the likelihood of a diamond lead against 6♣, and the likely contract at the other table.
For example, suppose that we thought that they'd be in 6♣ at the other table, and we thought there was a 50% chance of a diamond lead against 6♣. To make the arithmetic easier, assume that the chance of spades coming in is 50%.
7♣ will:
- Gain 13 IMPs 50% of the time
- Lose 17 IMPs 25% of the time.
for an average gain of 2.25 IMPs.
On the other hand, if we think they're likely to be in game at the other table (still with a 50% chance of a diamond lead), 7♣ will:
- Gain 4 IMPs 50% of the time
- Lose 25 IMPs 25% of the time.
- Lose 3 IMPs 25% of the time.
for an average loss of 4.37 IMPs.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
#23
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Posted 2010-August-28, 04:12
edit: ok im kinda retarded, we can ruff a heart.
I did not consider playing 7C. Since the field will often be in game it doesn't seem that good to me. As you say it depends on how often they are in slam at the other table, and how often we avoid a diamond lead.
I think they lead a heart a reasonable amount of time plus they are not in slam at the other table a reasonable amount of the time, but it's interesting to consider playing 7C.
It also depends which slam they're in at the other table, if they're in six spades then 6C is better since 6S may go down while 6C makes on a non diamond lead.
It seems pretty greedy to get to 7C here though heh. I am always fascinated by hands where it might be right to bid a <50 % grand though.
I did not consider playing 7C. Since the field will often be in game it doesn't seem that good to me. As you say it depends on how often they are in slam at the other table, and how often we avoid a diamond lead.
I think they lead a heart a reasonable amount of time plus they are not in slam at the other table a reasonable amount of the time, but it's interesting to consider playing 7C.
It also depends which slam they're in at the other table, if they're in six spades then 6C is better since 6S may go down while 6C makes on a non diamond lead.
It seems pretty greedy to get to 7C here though heh. I am always fascinated by hands where it might be right to bid a <50 % grand though.
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#24
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Posted 2010-August-31, 15:00
AKJx
xxx
Ax
AQJx
Txxxx
AK
xx
Kxxx
standard system, you can use some gadgets of your choice.
N is dealer, imps.
1c normal (sorry no upgrade to 2n for me with this balanced hand and no heart stopper)
1s normal
2d it rarely hurts to show p a strong hand and maybe gather some useful information. When i raise spades later P will know I am not short in hearts since i failed to bid 3h now. Not showing spade support right away should not be a problem. Note how often bidding a fragment saves a ton of bidding space so great care is needed when raising openers secondary forcing suit. We would not bid this way with a boring 19 count say with Axxx Kx KQJ KQJx. with this quack filled 19 count we would merely bid 4c to show a balanced powerhouse but not very slam worthy.
2h extra values no reason to not keep bidding low and see why opener chose to reverse. This bid does not promise any extra values. Might just be a hand with nothing else useful to bid. I am willing to treat my rotten 5 card spade suit like a 4 card suit for now else I would bid 2s.
3s now comes the raise to show 4 card support dia ace (else why waste time with 2d bid if I have spade support) and powerhouse hand. A 2s bid would show only a 3 card raise. Since a 4s bid here would show around 16-17 this 3s bid should show 18-19. Our earlier failure to jump to 4c (over 1s) now reveals a hand with lots of controls and much more slam worthy.
4c cue bid
4s cant cue in dia again no heart control even with superb spades must bid 4s and
hope p can bid again. We can also hope the inability to cue bid a red sit will convey something useful.
4n the fact that p could not cue 4d and no heart contol (they are not short) should make risking blackwood safer now since we know opener doesnt have dia K at least (else easy 4d bid).
5d 1/4
5h spade Q?
5s no
6c alternative contract 44 might play better than 54 spades. Opener will know there
is no reason to suggest clubs over spades unless it is to play 44 vs 54. I am not going hunting for 7 mising Qxxx spades.
As is often the case going slow yields much greater accuracy in bidding and that why opps preempt because they know it.
My applause to others that bid 6c vs 6s just in case it was superior at IMPS no matter how they bid it. At MP i would probably just settle for 6S on the theory that 6C will make only around 20% more often than 6s if that.
xxx
Ax
AQJx
Txxxx
AK
xx
Kxxx
standard system, you can use some gadgets of your choice.
N is dealer, imps.
1c normal (sorry no upgrade to 2n for me with this balanced hand and no heart stopper)
1s normal
2d it rarely hurts to show p a strong hand and maybe gather some useful information. When i raise spades later P will know I am not short in hearts since i failed to bid 3h now. Not showing spade support right away should not be a problem. Note how often bidding a fragment saves a ton of bidding space so great care is needed when raising openers secondary forcing suit. We would not bid this way with a boring 19 count say with Axxx Kx KQJ KQJx. with this quack filled 19 count we would merely bid 4c to show a balanced powerhouse but not very slam worthy.
2h extra values no reason to not keep bidding low and see why opener chose to reverse. This bid does not promise any extra values. Might just be a hand with nothing else useful to bid. I am willing to treat my rotten 5 card spade suit like a 4 card suit for now else I would bid 2s.
3s now comes the raise to show 4 card support dia ace (else why waste time with 2d bid if I have spade support) and powerhouse hand. A 2s bid would show only a 3 card raise. Since a 4s bid here would show around 16-17 this 3s bid should show 18-19. Our earlier failure to jump to 4c (over 1s) now reveals a hand with lots of controls and much more slam worthy.
4c cue bid
4s cant cue in dia again no heart control even with superb spades must bid 4s and
hope p can bid again. We can also hope the inability to cue bid a red sit will convey something useful.
4n the fact that p could not cue 4d and no heart contol (they are not short) should make risking blackwood safer now since we know opener doesnt have dia K at least (else easy 4d bid).
5d 1/4
5h spade Q?
5s no
6c alternative contract 44 might play better than 54 spades. Opener will know there
is no reason to suggest clubs over spades unless it is to play 44 vs 54. I am not going hunting for 7 mising Qxxx spades.
As is often the case going slow yields much greater accuracy in bidding and that why opps preempt because they know it.
My applause to others that bid 6c vs 6s just in case it was superior at IMPS no matter how they bid it. At MP i would probably just settle for 6S on the theory that 6C will make only around 20% more often than 6s if that.