[awm]

♠x ♥KJxxx ♦KJ9xx ♣xx

Partner opens 1♥ (2/1, five-card majors) and RHO overcalls 2♠ weak. You decide to bid 4♦ (fit-showing jump) and LHO bids 4♠ over this. Partner now thinks for a long time and doubles. Regardless of whether you would've pulled an in-tempo penalty double, you feel ethically constrained to pass a slow double and 4♠X becomes the final contract.

What do you lead? If it matters, this is all vulnerable at matchpoints.

[aguahombre]

Whichever club we lead with a doubleton. Why? Because it is close to my right thumb.

By the way, Partner was given a description of my hand so she could make a decision. The only thing the long pause showed is that she took a while to make that decision, so maybe it is right. Wouldn't have pulled an in-tempo double either.

[rogerclee]

Didn't I bid 4D in anticipation of this problem, so that I could respect partner's decision over what to do over 4S? The whole point of playing fitjumps is so that you do not have to guess as much in situations like this, so I think making a fitjump and pulling a double in general should be done very seldom (I pulled once with 5-7 and I don't think I've ever pulled with 5-6). Anyway pulling with 1552 when our most likely handtype for 4D is 1552 seems very silly to me.

Anyway I would lead the HK to try to take a look at the dummy.

[bluecalm]

I think chances for ♣ ruff are slim. We are more likely to engineer ♦ ruff if anything but first we need find communication with partner's hand.
I lead high heart hoping it's the most clear defence.

[gnasher]

I lead a low heart. It's more likely that trick two should be a diamond from partner's hand rather than a club from mine. It will be particularly silly if we lead the king, partner overtakes to play a diamond through, and declarer throws a diamond from dummy on ♥Q.

Defence is hard enough without adding this sort of complication. Rather than trying to get into the bulletin, we should lead the card that partner expects us to lead. I think unsupported king leads should be restricted to deals where the bidding makes it obvious to both partners that we need to hold the lead.

[Fluffy]

I voted for heart, but actually, partner should have shortness there so, maybe a club to put partner in, and keep ♥K as an entry can be the key to this hand.

But I won't make the lead planning partner to underlead an ace at trick 7. So a heart it is.

[aguahombre]

has anyone considered dummy's heart void with declarer holding AQX?

[cherdanno]

aguahombre, on Jul 24 2010, 01:55 PM, said:

has anyone considered dummy's heart void with declarer holding AQX?

Partner has 5 hearts, and RHO made a weak jump overcall in a suit other than hearts. What do you think are the odds that RHO has ♥AQx?

[aguahombre]

it was humor....but the odds are about the same as a club lead being costly.

[mikeh]

aguahombre, on Jul 24 2010, 05:00 PM, said:

it was humor....but the odds are about the same as a club lead being costly.

Not at all the same. LHO has a reason for bidding 4♠...if he has AQx in a red, it is overwhelmingly likely to be in diamonds.

And if he lacks diamonds, he will have good clubs, so leading clubs may cost a tempo...altho it is hard to construct a hand on which that is a huge issue.

Anyway, Andy's analysis of what to lead, and why, seems spot-on to me.

[MFA]

gnasher, on Jul 24 2010, 08:11 PM, said:

It will be particularly silly if we lead the king, partner overtakes to play a diamond through, and declarer throws a diamond from dummy on ♥Q.

Defence is hard enough without adding this sort of complication.  Rather than trying to get into the bulletin, we should lead the card that partner expects us to lead.  I think unsupported king leads should be restricted to deals where the bidding makes it obvious to both partners that we need to hold the lead.

Yep. Last time I led the K without the Q for no particular good reason, just that happened to us. Partner overtook perfectly logically, 5♠X made, and that board even cost us the whole knock-out match. So now I have promised myself not to try the coup again until I really (think I) know what I'm doing.

[Pict]

K♥

Keeps the club switch in the equation.

[peachy]

awm, on Jul 24 2010, 11:18 AM, said:

♠x ♥KJxxx ♦KJ9xx ♣xx

Partner opens 1♥ (2/1, five-card majors) and RHO overcalls 2♠ weak. You decide to bid 4♦ (fit-showing jump) and LHO bids 4♠ over this. Partner now thinks for a long time and doubles. Regardless of whether you would've pulled an in-tempo penalty double, you feel ethically constrained to pass a slow double and 4♠X becomes the final contract.

What do you lead? If it matters, this is all vulnerable at matchpoints.

I think you are obligated _by system_ to pass. So bidding on would be antisystemic, for starters. The 4D bid told everything and put partner in charge of decision making.

[Cascade]

I might lead a club. There is a slim chance I will get a club ruff but the main reason for the passive lead over a heart is that partner may need to use my ♥K as an entry later.

[ArcLight]

What do you think the field contract will be?
4H?
4S?
If its 4H, making, then we need to set 4S by 3 tricks , else we get a bad score.
If we think the field contract is 4S, down whatever, then don't give anything away.

Do we know anything about RHOs weak 2 overcall style?

[awm]

peachy said:

I think you are obligated _by system_ to pass. So bidding on would be antisystemic, for starters. The 4D bid told everything and put partner in charge of decision making.

I don't think this is really true in general. There are hands where I'd make a 4♦ fit jump and then bid on over 4♠; opponents are not always bidding 4♠ and so I don't feel obligated to jump to the five-level on all hands where I'd compete there if pushed. However, I don't think this particular hand falls into that category (maybe if I had another small diamond instead of the singleton spade though) and it certainly isn't so clearly a member of that category that I can bid on after partner's break in tempo.

ArcLight said:

What do you think the field contract will be?
4H?
4S?
If its 4H, making, then we need to set 4S by 3 tricks , else we get a bad score.
If we think the field contract is 4S, down whatever, then don't give anything away.

Do we know anything about RHOs weak 2 overcall style?

RHO preempts are down the middle. There's no reason to think the 2♠ call won't be replicated at other tables. It's true that most of the field doesn't play fit jumps and so we might see a 4♥ call (instead of 4♦) from our hand -- not clear how this will effect the result though.

[mrdct]

I think a trump lead has some merit here. Unless partner has a rock, he really shouldn't be doubling 4♠ if we have a double-fit in the reds so I suspect declarer is going to need a few ruffs in dummy.

[awm]

Here's the layout at the table:

Scoring: MP

---

A low diamond lead is the only way to set. This maintains the heart king as an entry before the clubs are established, allowing the defense to take two diamonds, a club, and a heart. If declarer tries ducking the first diamond, then a heart back and a diamond ruff defeats the contract. On any other suit lead the diamonds will be discarded on the clubs, and in fact declarer makes with an overtrick.

I'm not sure if this is exactly predictable (in fact currently only one of twenty-five polled lead a diamond) and arguably partner doesn't have much of a double of 4♠. Of course, 5♥ has no real play so the diamond lead is the only route to a plus score on the board -- a top to bottom matchpoint swing on the lead.

[jdonn]

I think I would have led a club, although a heart is ok. This layout is pretty random to me. If they had the same shapes but dummy AQxx of diamonds and partner better clubs then a diamond, run around to the ten, would be the only lead to let this make. I think that's a fair bit more likely than something like this.

[655321]

Diamond lead from the KJ just seems wrong to me when partner is likely to be short.

Don't expect -990 was worth any matchpoints, would -650 have been worth something?