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MP lead problem

#1 User is offline   Rossoneri 

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Posted 2010-July-14, 06:53

Scoring: MP


You are seated South. Bidding goes:
P-P-1H-P
1S-2C-2S-3C
3S-4C-P-P
X-AP

What do you lead?
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#2 User is offline   billw55 

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Posted 2010-July-14, 07:12

Yikes. I guess ♠A.
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#3 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2010-July-14, 07:16

Trump. All other seem like.. yucky.
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#4 User is offline   pooltuna 

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Posted 2010-July-14, 08:42

A♠>3♦>>>> anything else
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#5 User is offline   Rossoneri 

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Posted 2010-July-14, 08:46

whereagles, on Jul 14 2010, 02:16 PM, said:

Trump. All other seem like.. yucky.

Interesting, what's your reasoning for leading a trump?
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#6 User is offline   ArcLight 

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Posted 2010-July-14, 08:54

I see no reason to lead an ace, its possible RHO has Kx in spades or hearts. I see no reason to underled the spade Ace.
Whats left?

I prefer a club to a diamond, since thats less likely to cost a trick. I dont like the Dime 3 lead form Jxx anyway.

The only way the opps make tricks are by ruffing, so do what you can to stop that. It sounds like the opps have a bunch of clubs anyway.
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#7 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2010-July-14, 14:08

Rossoneri, on Jul 14 2010, 02:46 PM, said:

whereagles, on Jul 14 2010, 02:16 PM, said:

Trump. All other seem like.. yucky.

Interesting, what's your reasoning for leading a trump?

I don't want to lead or underlead an ace, as that's statistically a bad move, as is the diamond jack underlead. By exclusion, that leaves the club suit.

Also, opps are at the 4 level when the hcp rate to split 20-20. They can't make this without ruffs, so it's a good move to start drawing those.
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#8 User is offline   Rodney26 

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Posted 2010-July-14, 15:43

I'll lead the heart ace. I think heart shortness from partner is the most likely road to +300 and it makes sense in context with the auction & MP NV.
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#9 User is offline   Siegmund 

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Posted 2010-July-14, 17:02

♠A for me. I am sorely tempted to try a small spade, hoping to reach partner and get a heart back toward my AQ... if overcaller were not a passed hand I might very well do that, but as it is there is no guarantee the king is on my right at all.

Not eager to lead a club and help declarer finesse my partner out of his trumps, despite the 20-and-20 argument. I would rate a small diamond as also reasonable, more or less tied with the small spade.
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#10 User is offline   655321 

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Posted 2010-July-14, 18:59

Trump
That's impossible. No one can give more than one hundred percent. By definition that is the most anyone can give.
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#11 User is offline   Codo 

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Posted 2010-July-15, 05:30

A trump is obvious.

Make it AKxxx in hearts and I would change my view.
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#12 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2010-July-15, 05:40

♣
... and I can prove it with my usual, flawless logic.
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#13 User is offline   lmilne 

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Posted 2010-July-15, 06:38

Siegmund, on Jul 14 2010, 06:02 PM, said:

Not eager to lead a club and help declarer finesse my partner out of his trumps, despite the 20-and-20 argument. I would rate a small diamond as also reasonable, more or less tied with the small spade.

I would lead a trump.

Declarer isn't going to finesse you for any trump cards, after showing 9 cards in the majors and your partner doubling. There isn't any loss to a club, and may be a reasonable gain for getting some trumps off dummy early.
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#14 User is offline   Rossoneri 

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Posted 2010-July-15, 19:53

I'll reveal the full hand in a bit. Now for part 2 of my problem.

I led the ♠A (yes I can see the chorus of disapproval already) and dummy hit table:

Scoring: MP


Partner plays the 8 on this trick (high=enc). Now what?
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#15 User is offline   hanp 

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Posted 2010-July-15, 22:08

I assume that declarer does not play the 10 otherwise you would have told us. That means declarer has 10x and partner K8xx.

I don't think partner has a singleton heart, it would be strange for him to bid 3S with only 4 spades and a singleton heart, and he certainly wouldn't have encouraged a spade.

It seems right to play the heart queen now. We'll probably score 2 spades, 2 hearts and a diamond for +300.
and the result can be plotted on a graph.
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#16 User is offline   billw55 

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Posted 2010-July-16, 06:17

hanp, on Jul 15 2010, 11:08 PM, said:

I assume that declarer does not play the 10 otherwise you would have told us. That means declarer has 10x and partner K8xx.

I don't think partner has a singleton heart, it would be strange for him to bid 3S with only 4 spades and a singleton heart, and he certainly wouldn't have encouraged a spade.

It seems right to play the heart queen now. We'll probably score 2 spades, 2 hearts and a diamond for +300.

If declarer has two spades, why should we play the ♥Q around to the K when we can lead the ♠6 over to partner for a heart back through?
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#17 User is offline   hanp 

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Posted 2010-July-16, 06:28

Because maybe partner has K8xx Jx Axxxx Q10 and declarer has a club entry to dummy to pitch on the spades?

I think that that's a far more likely layout than any layout where playing the heart queen is wrong.

(By the way, if partner has the heart jack declarer might just duck the heart queen hoping for the stiff ace with partner. That would lead to +500.)
and the result can be plotted on a graph.
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#18 User is offline   Bbradley62 

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Posted 2010-July-16, 08:06

billw55, on Jul 16 2010, 08:17 AM, said:

If declarer has two spades, why should we play the ♥Q around to the K when we can lead the ♠6 over to partner for a heart back through?

You are seeing the table incorrectly. We are South, and dummy is West, behind us. We lead through dummy, not around to him.
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#19 User is offline   Rossoneri 

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Posted 2010-July-16, 08:21

Hint:
Spoiler

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#20 User is offline   hanp 

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Posted 2010-July-16, 08:40

You are wrong, partner has 4 spades.
and the result can be plotted on a graph.
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