Posted 2010-July-03, 06:15
A secure diamond game, it seems to me, requires partner to hold 3 out of the 5 key cards (K♠, AK♦, A♥, A♣) as well as a useful secondary spade feature, such as a doubleton or the queen. It seems to me that can I think of about 18 useful points that partner could potentially hold.
A decent game in NT requires partner to hold a top diamond with a double stop in hearts, or AK♦ and a single heart stop, as well as (in either case) either the spade king or the club ace. It seems here that partner could have about 20 points that would be useful for a NT game.
There are 31 points that I can't see. Partner has about half of them. For a diamond game, he has to have 11/18 useful points; for the NT game he has to have about 13/20. So it seems to me that the diamond game is a better bet...but I think both bets are slight favorites to lose.
I would bid 3 diamonds vulnerable at teams. But at match points, or not vulnerable at teams, I think it's right to pass 2 diamonds.
2♦-?
*14-16