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Speculative double?

#1 User is offline   Jeroen71 

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Posted 2010-June-30, 05:48

Scoring: IMP


You are east and hear this auction by opps:

(1) - pass - (1) - pass
(1NT) - pass - (2NT) - pass
(3NT) - pass - (pass) - ?

opps are playing a natural 5crd major system with strong notrump.

LHO tanked a little before accepting the invite.
doubling now would request a spade lead.
Would you?
Would it matter if the scoring would be MP instead?
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#2 User is offline   kfay 

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Posted 2010-June-30, 06:19

It's definitely close. A spade lead is almost certainly the best start for the defense. Most of the conditions are there...

However, I can't even be that sure that the rest of the cards lie poorly for declarer. It doesn't look like the distribution is all that terrible. Furthermore, partner also had the chance to make such a double but did not. 6 or 7 points doesn't leave him much to have well placed clubs AND another card or two.

At MP I 100% don't double.

At IMP.... I double but not so much to collect a number as I think it may give us the best chance to set. I've been -750 before... -950 isn't nearly as tolerable though.
Kevin Fay
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#3 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2010-June-30, 10:30

I wish I had another spade spot but who knows maybe partner has an honor. I think double is fine, though unthinkable if there had not been an invitation.
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.
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#4 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2010-June-30, 11:00

You don't get many opportunities to be this bold. Shape up like a man and double. No quarter!
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#5 User is offline   Siegmund 

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Posted 2010-June-30, 12:30

Highly speculative. I understand the temptation but I think I would restrain myself.
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#6 User is offline   nigel_k 

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Posted 2010-June-30, 14:14

Double at IMPs because of the invitation. Cards aren't lying terribly for them but they certainly aren't good and a spade lead will help. Also the double is not too bad in terms of helping declarer place cards.
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#7 User is offline   aguahombre 

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Posted 2010-June-30, 21:05

Here is a thought. LHO hesitated before accepting on that auction. I don't find many players hesitating on this auction. they either like their minimum or they don't. The most frequent reason for hesitating, especially in an unpracticed partnership, is when opener has 3-card spade support ---and is deciding whether responder would have used NMF.

Does that change the prospects on doubling?
"Bidding Spades to show spades can work well." (Kenberg)
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#8 User is offline   CSGibson 

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Posted 2010-July-01, 08:45

I would not X. I assume partner will not lead a club, since that was a bid suit by declarer, and I have cards supporting any other natural lead he makes. Additionally, my spots are not good enough to suggest attacking spades unless my partner concurs in that decision.
Chris Gibson
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