East opened 1♦ playing four-card majors and West responded 1♥. East bid 2N [17-18] and West raised to 3N. South led the ♥7, 3, 4, 9. Declarer played ♣K, which held, ♣ to the Q and A, T returned, West discarding the ♠3.
Declarer investigated their carding methods. Fourth highest leads at no-trumps, third and fifth at a suit contract. Signals standard count except first suit played by declarer when standard Smith. South had played ♣7 followed by ♣3: in Smith this means she likes the suit led ♥, or it is better than partner might expect. Discards: high to encourage, low to discourage.
Declarer now needed to know where the ♥Q was. The Smith peter suggested South had the Q, but the 7 looked a high card suggesting no queen. If it was a doubleton why did North play the 4? Q842 perhaps? Could South have Q87? Or even Q872 and had led 3rd highest by accident or design?
How good were the opponents? They had reached the final of this pairs tournament, but this was declarer's first board against them, and he had never seen them before.
Eventually declarer played South for the queen: wrong!
Declarer could have made ten tricks later in the hand, but after some incompetence by both sides finished with nine. He asked for a ruling, based on MI, and suggesting that since he would merely be more likely to get it right if told she rarely remembers Smith all he felt he deserved was some weighting of making ten tricks, maybe 30% or 35%. Actually there is some possibility of eleven tricks if he gets hearts right.
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