[karlson]

I would hook and feel pretty good about it. I will believe the hearts to be 4-5 in which case the empty spaces argument is more than enough to swing it. Plus there is the tiny chance that west would have led a spade holding the CQ.

[hanp]

They have 10 hearts.

[quiddity]

I think a weak East will always cover here, or at least hitch.

[karlson]

hanp, on May 24 2010, 01:15 PM, said:

They have 10 hearts.

Mm, so they do. I'll still hook.

[wank]

RHO passed 1S and he's turned up with an ace already? if he's got a queen too, he's just too clever for me.

edit: nevermind, i just reread the bidding. ignore this crap.

[Jlall]

People are really hooking? I insta go for the drop and lol.

[Free]

Drop seems like a no brainer to me.

[Trinidad]

hanp, on May 24 2010, 08:52 PM, said:

Like kfay, I bid 2NT and thought it showed this hand. Partner raised to 3H and LHO led the heart 4.

Jxx
K9
Qxxxx
J8x

AKxx
Q
Kx
AK109xx

RHO wins the ace and returns the heart 3, LHO smoothly playing the jack when you pitch a spade.

You ask for the jack of clubs and RHO plays low. When you inquire about their methods, they tell you the opening lead is attitude and they return original fourth best. They do play that 1C - 2C shows the majors but it should be constructive, like 10 HCP says RHO.

These are not very strong opponents and you are not sure how accurate their explanations are. Do you play for the drop or finesse?

I probably would finesse, just like you did.

A couple of additional facts:

- Your opponents were -just like you- ranked in the highest strat (Dutch Meesterklasse or First Division).
- You were playing at tables 15-16 or 17-18 in a 56 table Swiss tournament in round 8. At the tables around you, Muller-De Wijs, Baldurson-Jonsson, Bakkeren-Bakkeren and Robson-Nettl were playing.
- The answers that you got were highly accurate. (BTW the opening lead was explained as "4th best vs NT", not "attitude" as you write.)
- The answers came promptly and without hesitation (other than a slight hesitation from my partner when you asked him about opening leads ("uitkomsten") when you actually meant to ask about returns).

A question to you: Why would your RHO play a true count card if he could see that his partner would know the count very soon?

Greetings,

Rik (your RHO)

[gnasher]

Jlall, on May 25 2010, 02:02 AM, said:

People are really hooking? I insta go for the drop and lol.

Can you explain your reasoning?

[Jlall]

gnasher, on May 25 2010, 12:22 PM, said:

Jlall, on May 25 2010, 02:02 AM, said:

People are really hooking? I insta go for the drop and lol.

Can you explain your reasoning?

I guess it depends on how you take "not very strong" opps, maybe han was just being nice as usual but I take that to mean they aren't hopeless. If RHO has A8xxx(x) of hearts as I suspect him to have, I think he would see the need to duck the heart lead if he also held Qxx of clubs.

This does not mean I think he is being so deep as to give us an entry on purpose to hook, more like he sees no danger of letting us in dummy when he has no CQ, but when looking at Qxx of clubs it's much easier to see the danger, so the effect is he's made a good play to let us in dummy when he has xx(x) of clubs.

Against a good opp this inference would be 100 %, against a complete drooler it would be 0 %.

Ignoring that factor, if LHO has JTxx of hearts and RHO has 6 hearts to the ace (not for sure since it would require RHO to return the wrong heart spot, but I don't know if LHO would lead the 4 instead of the 2 from JT742 or w/e playing attitude, and even if he has it's not clear he would unblock the jack/ten, whereas if he led from 4 he would always unblock the jack/ten. Obv he COULD always fake unblock to protect his real unblocks, but in practice I think people are much more likely to unblock when they need to (JTxx) and be lazy and play the 2 or 7 when they don't.), I don't think it's that unlikely that LHO is 5422 rather than 5431, and even if he's 5431 we have equity from stiff Q.

And if he's 5422 he might always have the CQ, because for some people the cutoff for overcalling would be yes on QTxxx JTxx Ax Qx, and no on QTxxx JTxx Ax xx (and I actually think this isn't unreasonable, sure the random queen is not that helpful but it's something, but surely to "not strong opps" 2 points makes a difference from 7 to 9).

Of course I have not talked about 64xx which is possible but imo discounted since RHO would have more reason to bid over 2H with Axxxxx and a queen if he had a spade void, and LHO would be more likely to lead a spade.

So yeah I think it's close without the inference of RHO playing the HA at trick 1 and I would probably hook if it was just that but consider it a close call. However, even if RHO ducks the heart with Qxx of clubs like 25 % of the time I no longer think it's close.

[Jlall]

Trinidad, on May 25 2010, 08:12 AM, said:

A question to you: Why would your RHO play a true count card if he could see that his partner would know the count very soon?

If RHO is so good then why are we PLAYING FOR HIM TO LET US IN DUMMY WITH Qxx of clubs! That would be a massive blunder!

This is really strange because I'm always the one arguing to play the opps to be idiots and to take the losing option in many cases where not many experts would because that's the optimal way to exploit the opps and everyone is bad blah blah but in this thread I'm the only one arguing to not take the losing option heh.

[hanp]

Trinidad, on May 25 2010, 08:12 AM, said:

hanp, on May 24 2010, 08:52 PM, said:

Like kfay, I bid 2NT and thought it showed this hand. Partner raised to 3H and LHO led the heart 4.

Jxx
K9
Qxxxx
J8x

AKxx
Q
Kx
AK109xx

RHO wins the ace and returns the heart 3, LHO smoothly playing the jack when you pitch a spade.

You ask for the jack of clubs and RHO plays low. When you inquire about their methods, they tell you the opening lead is attitude and they return original fourth best. They do play that 1C - 2C shows the majors but it should be constructive, like 10 HCP says RHO.

These are not very strong opponents and you are not sure how accurate their explanations are. Do you play for the drop or finesse?

I probably would finesse, just like you did.

A couple of additional facts:

- Your opponents were -just like you- ranked in the highest strat (Dutch Meesterklasse or First Division).
- You were playing at tables 15-16 or 17-18 in a 56 table Swiss tournament in round 8. At the tables around you, Muller-De Wijs, Baldurson-Jonsson, Bakkeren-Bakkeren and Robson-Nettl were playing.
- The answers that you got were highly accurate. (BTW the opening lead was explained as "4th best vs NT", not "attitude" as you write.)
- The answers came promptly and without hesitation (other than a slight hesitation from my partner when you asked him about opening leads ("uitkomsten") when you actually meant to ask about returns).

A question to you: Why would your RHO play a true count card if he could see that his partner would know the count very soon?

Greetings,

Rik (your RHO)

I was aware that there were pairs in the field that I would describe as very strong, but I did not know my opponents. I regret that I don't remember them very well either, please tell me you are trinidad next time we meet.

Anyway, \Justin made it quite clear that finessing was a stupidity.

[hijumper]

3c