[VixTD]

K92 - AJ43

Could someone please tell me how to give myself the best chance of making three tricks in this suit. (My answer is at odds with the textbooks, so I must be doing something wrong.)

[Free]

This one is not the same as K952 - AJ43 (in which case you ALWAYS have 3 tricks).

I think the best way is A, K and small to the J. Picks up any 3-3, Qx, Tx, QT, Q, T and QTxx(x) onside.

[gwnn]

two strategies:

1. cash ace cash king
2. cash king small to jack

1 wins over 2 when lho has Qx (or all 6 cards). 2 never wins over 1.

[kfay]

gwnn, on Apr 26 2010, 09:13 AM, said:

two strategies:

1. cash ace cash king
2. cash king small to jack

1 wins over 2 when lho has Qx (or all 6 cards). 2 never wins over 1.

Wrong!

Two cases are:

1) Cash A, Cash K, small to J
2) Small to 9, Cash K, small to J

If you check all the combos it looks like these 2 lines are a wash (both losing to 11 cases), but what you have to figure is things like

with (2) you lose to Qxx offside, 6 cases, which doesn't push with Q10xx offside that you pick up with (2) because each Qxx is more likely than Q10xx, etc.

But anyway I agree with these guys line 1 is best.

[gwnn]

oh good that you explained it, did someone help you to figure it out?

[kfay]

gwnn, on Apr 26 2010, 09:48 AM, said:

oh good that you explained it, did someone help you to figure it out?

Yes, suitplay FTW!

[VixTD]

kfay, on Apr 26 2010, 09:44 AM, said:

Two cases are:

1) Cash A, Cash K, small to J
2) Small to 9, Cash K, small to J

I came up with:

(1) A, K, then small to J
(2) small to 9, K, then small to J
(3) small to 9, K, then A

I think (3) is better than (2) (doesn't lose to Qxx with East), so I rejected (2).

It looks to me as if:

(1) loses to Q10xx (9.6%) and Q10xxx (4.8%) with East
(3) loses to Qxxx (6.4%) and Qxxxx (1.2%) with East

so (3) succeeds 92% of the time, (1) 86% of the time. Two books give (1) as the correct answer.

As I said, I'm doing something wrong, either I've missed some losing card distributions, or my percentages are incorrect.

[gwnn]

3 loses to Tx and T at east..

[kfay]

VixTD, on Apr 26 2010, 10:03 AM, said:

kfay, on Apr 26 2010, 09:44 AM, said:

Two cases are:

1) Cash A, Cash K, small to J
2) Small to 9, Cash K, small to J

I came up with:

(1) A, K, then small to J
(2) small to 9, K, then small to J
(3) small to 9, K, then A

I think (3) is better than (2) (doesn't lose to Qxx with East), so I rejected (2).

It looks to me as if:

(1) loses to Q10xx (9.6%) and Q10xxx (4.8%) with East
(3) loses to Qxxx (6.4%) and Qxxxx (1.2%) with East

so (3) succeeds 92% of the time, (1) 86% of the time. Two books give (1) as the correct answer.

As I said, I'm doing something wrong, either I've missed some losing card distributions, or my percentages are incorrect.

Line 3 loses to: Q10xx onside (6), 10x under the J (4), stiff 10 under the J (1)

Line 1 loses to: Q10xx offside (6), Q10xxx offside (4), all offside (1)

p(10x) > p(Q10xxx) and p(stiff 10) > p(all offside) so this doesn't seem close.

edit: i'm dumb cash the ace first not the K, so i don't even lose to all offside (not like it makes a big difference)



but yeah you are forgetting:

.........AJ43
Q10xx........xx
.........K92

[VixTD]

gwnn, on Apr 26 2010, 10:04 AM, said:

3 loses to Tx and T at east..

No it doesn't.

[VixTD]

kfay, on Apr 26 2010, 10:16 AM, said:

but yeah you are forgetting:

.........AJ43
Q10xx........xx
.........K92

That would explain it. That brings the success rate down to 83%, compared to 86% for (1).

Thanks.

[pooltuna]

VixTD, on Apr 26 2010, 08:22 AM, said:

K92 - AJ43

Could someone please tell me how to give myself the best chance of making three tricks in this suit. (My answer is at odds with the textbooks, so I must be doing something wrong.)

From the chart below you can see the first column is the winner(cash AK;low to J) with the 3rd column slightly worse and the second column last. You must remember that 3-3>4-2>5-1>6-0; i.e. probability of any single 3-3 is higher than any single 4-2; and column 1 lost to six 4-2 and four 5-1 while column 3 lost to ten 4-2 and column 2 lost to ten 4-2 and one 5-1.

RHO---LHO---cash KA; low to J--- low to 9; cash KA---cash K;low to 9;cash A
- qt8765 w w w
q t8765 w w w
t q8765 w l w
8 qt765 l w w
7 qt865 l w w
6 qt875 l w w
5 qt876 l w w
qt 8765 w w w
q8 t765 w w w
q7 q865 w w w
q6 q875 w w w
q5 q876 w w w
t8 q765 w l l
t7 q865 w l l
t6 q875 w l l
t5 q876 w l l
87 qt65 l w w
86 qt75 l w w
85 qt76 l w w
76 qt85 l w w
75 qt86 l w w
65 qt87 l w w
qt8 765 w w w
qt7 865 w w w
qt6 875 w w w
qt5 876 w w w
q87 t65 w w w
q86 t75 w w w
q85 t76 w w w
q76 t85 w w w
q75 t86 w w w
q65 t87 w w w
t87 q65 w w w
t86 q75 w w w
t85 q76 w w w
t76 q85 w w w
t75 q86 w w w
t65 q87 w w w
876 qt5 w w w
875 qt6 w w w
865 qt7 w w w
765 qt8 w w w
8765 qt w w w
t765 q8 w w w
t865 q7 w w w
t875 q6 w w w
t876 q5 w w w
q765 t8 w w w
q865 t7 w w w
q875 t6 w w w
q876 t5 w w w
qt65 87 w l l
qt75 86 w l l
qt76 85 w l l
qt85 76 w l l
qt86 75 w l l
qt87 65 w l l
t8765 q w w w
q8765 t w w w
qt765 8 w w w
qt865 7 w w w
qt875 6 w w w
qt876 5 w w w
qt8765 - w w w

[gwnn]

VixTD, on Apr 26 2010, 04:13 PM, said:

gwnn, on Apr 26 2010, 10:04 AM, said:

3 loses to Tx and T at east..

No it doesn't.

right sorry I had a faulty compass.