[mikegill]

Just thought I'd see what everyone's choice is

Scoring: MP

1♠ p 1N p
3♠ p 4♠

---

opps are terrible if that matters to you (this is from a club game)

[mikeh]

I lead whatever the correct heart spot: for me that would be the 3.

I'd probably lead that at imps as well, but at imps there is more of a case for a small diamond...at mps, that strikes me as too aggressive.

I wouldn't lead a club, since that is the suit in which I am most likely to pick off partner's holding. And a trump is idiotic, imo. Thus my heart: the most conservative lead.

[jdonn]

I agree with, definitely a heart at mps and probably a heart at imps although I could see a diamond. A heart could easily get us a ruff on top of being passive which is why I like it.

[Jlall]

I think a club is more passive than a heart, the jack empty is just so bad imo. Obv a 5 card suit is more passive than a 3 card suit though.

[mikeh]

Jlall, on Apr 21 2010, 11:23 AM, said:

I think a club is more passive than a heart, the jack empty is just so bad imo. Obv a 5 card suit is more passive than a 3 card suit though.

xxx is obviously safer than Jxx, but Jxxxx is safer than xxx, imo, on this type of auction. Opener rates to have a stiff or two doubletons, and a lead into his short suit(s) will be more passive than a lead into his 3 card side suit(s). And the odds are that he holds more clubs than hearts.

[pooltuna]

mikegill, on Apr 21 2010, 10:59 AM, said:

Just thought I'd see what everyone's choice is

Scoring: MP

1♠ p 1N p
3♠ p 4♠

---

opps are terrible if that matters to you (this is from a club game)

2♦>4♥>>>6♣>>>>K♠

[akhare]

Small ♥ for me....seeking safety in numbers here by leading my longer suit...

[Phil]

mikeh, on Apr 21 2010, 11:31 AM, said:

Jlall, on Apr 21 2010, 11:23 AM, said:

I think a club is more passive than a heart, the jack empty is just so bad imo. Obv a 5 card suit is more passive than a 3 card suit though.

xxx is obviously safer than Jxx, but Jxxxx is safer than xxx, imo, on this type of auction. Opener rates to have a stiff or two doubletons, and a lead into his short suit(s) will be more passive than a lead into his 3 card side suit(s). And the odds are that he holds more clubs than hearts.

With 3-3 (decl + dummy) everyone agrees the heart lead is death.

However, it seems that if declarer has a doubleton heart, rather than dummy, then the heart lead might be less passive not more, especially when declarer has a doubleton honor. There may even be some strange combinations where declarer has a singleton or void when the heart lead blows a trick.

I'm picturing Kx / Axx+ - with both the 10/9. Its also poor with the A-Q-T combinations but these also might be misguessed.

The presence of the ♣9 mitigates some of the misguesses - like with KTx opp Qxx there is only one way to play the suit - assuming the 7 doesn't come into play. However, if we are putting declarer on a doubleton club (admittedly less likely than a doubleton heart), then the chance of a misguess seems small.

[kenberg]

club

[mikegill]

I led a club trying to be passive, but I wasn't really all that sure which would be considered the safer lead - a heart or a club. I knew I wasn't going to lead a diamond or a spade. Club finds partner with Qx and dummy with AJTxx, heart finds partner with AQxx and dummy KT9, so obv a heart works better this time.

[Free]

♥ seems the best choice to me, ♣ can give away tricks much easier.

[bluecalm]

Very crude simulation effort:

W: our hand
S: 15-17hcp, exactly 6♠, no 5card suit on the side
N: 7-11hcp, exactly 2♠

Winning lead at imps (for 504 hands):

♠ - 44
low ♥ - 121
2♦ - 94
8♣ - 113

Of course it's crude and not really saying much but as it agrees with my intuition I am pretty sure about ♥ being correct lead at both imps and mp's.

[Codo]

Did you notice that there are hands where a heart lead (f.e.) is the only one to gift them with the contract?
So, on how many deals did a s/h/d/c gifts them the 12. trick?

[bluecalm]

I made one more simulation. Where number of tricks matter.
No. of Deals where specified card is the best lead:

♠ - 107
low ♥ - 380
2♦ - 310
8♣ - 355

I don't know how to check for number of deals where given lead is better than ♥ lead though. What we can deduce from those results is that there were 120 hands in 500 were ♥ wasn't the best lead.

[whereagles]

I would try the club. Diamond may look attractive, but RHO has the strong hand, so that's not so hot as in paper.