Help
just to test the LTC hypothesis, Wayne, could you run a sim on
xx
xx
xx
AQxxxxx
?
I'd like to know how much the difference is.
exploration opposite 2NT opener
#41
- Csaba the Hutt
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Posted 2010-April-16, 08:06
... and I can prove it with my usual, flawless logic.
George Carlin
George Carlin
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Posted 2010-April-16, 09:43
gwnn, on Apr 16 2010, 02:06 PM, said:
just to test the LTC hypothesis, Wayne, could you run a sim on
xx
xx
xx
AQxxxxx
?
I'd like to know how much the difference is.
xx
xx
xx
AQxxxxx
?
I'd like to know how much the difference is.
I'm not Wayne, but I get 6C making double dummy 46% of the time by East and 38% of the time by West. A brief look at the numbers shows that the lead still makes quite a difference, but less so.
When you don't have many HCP, you are off two aces a lot of the time. When you have a heart void, 2/3 of the time one of those aces is in hearts. On this hand they are always cashing.
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Posted 2010-April-16, 15:26
FrancesHinden, on Apr 17 2010, 03:43 AM, said:
gwnn, on Apr 16 2010, 02:06 PM, said:
just to test the LTC hypothesis, Wayne, could you run a sim on
xx
xx
xx
AQxxxxx
?
I'd like to know how much the difference is.
xx
xx
xx
AQxxxxx
?
I'd like to know how much the difference is.
I'm not Wayne, but I get 6C making double dummy 46% of the time by East and 38% of the time by West. A brief look at the numbers shows that the lead still makes quite a difference, but less so.
When you don't have many HCP, you are off two aces a lot of the time. When you have a heart void, 2/3 of the time one of those aces is in hearts. On this hand they are always cashing.
My numbers are similar to Frances'
47.8% and 39.1%
Wayne Burrows
I believe that the USA currently hold only the World Championship For People Who Still Bid Like Your Auntie Gladys - dburn
dunno how to play 4 card majors - JLOGIC
True but I know Standard American and what better reason could I have for playing Precision? - Hideous Hog
Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon
I believe that the USA currently hold only the World Championship For People Who Still Bid Like Your Auntie Gladys - dburn
dunno how to play 4 card majors - JLOGIC
True but I know Standard American and what better reason could I have for playing Precision? - Hideous Hog
Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon
#44
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Posted 2010-April-16, 19:44
xx xx xx AQxxxxx
47.8% 39.1%
x xx xxx AQxxxxx
56.5% 51.4%
- xxx xxx AQxxxxx
67.0% 62.0%
x x xxxx AQxxxxx
66.6% 62.5%
- xx xxxx AQxxxxx
68.1% 63.1%
- x xxxxx AQxxxxx
72.0% 69.8%
- - xxxxxx AQxxxxx
82.6% 80.%
47.8% 39.1%
x xx xxx AQxxxxx
56.5% 51.4%
- xxx xxx AQxxxxx
67.0% 62.0%
x x xxxx AQxxxxx
66.6% 62.5%
- xx xxxx AQxxxxx
68.1% 63.1%
- x xxxxx AQxxxxx
72.0% 69.8%
- - xxxxxx AQxxxxx
82.6% 80.%
Wayne Burrows
I believe that the USA currently hold only the World Championship For People Who Still Bid Like Your Auntie Gladys - dburn
dunno how to play 4 card majors - JLOGIC
True but I know Standard American and what better reason could I have for playing Precision? - Hideous Hog
Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon
I believe that the USA currently hold only the World Championship For People Who Still Bid Like Your Auntie Gladys - dburn
dunno how to play 4 card majors - JLOGIC
True but I know Standard American and what better reason could I have for playing Precision? - Hideous Hog
Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon
#45
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Posted 2010-April-18, 01:59
Cascade, on Apr 17 2010, 02:44 AM, said:
- xxx xxx AQxxxxx
67.0% 62.0%
x x xxxx AQxxxxx
66.6% 62.5%
67.0% 62.0%
x x xxxx AQxxxxx
66.6% 62.5%
That can't possibly be right. The 4-7 shape has one less loser, so it should be worth a trick more than the first hand.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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Posted 2010-April-18, 02:27
gnasher, on Apr 18 2010, 02:59 AM, said:
Cascade, on Apr 17 2010, 02:44 AM, said:
- xxx xxx AQxxxxx
67.0% 62.0%
x x xxxx AQxxxxx
66.6% 62.5%
67.0% 62.0%
x x xxxx AQxxxxx
66.6% 62.5%
That can't possibly be right. The 4-7 shape has one less loser, so it should be worth a trick more than the first hand.
haha
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Posted 2010-April-18, 06:25
gnasher, on Apr 18 2010, 02:59 AM, said:
Cascade, on Apr 17 2010, 02:44 AM, said:
- xxx xxx AQxxxxx
67.0% 62.0%
x x xxxx AQxxxxx
66.6% 62.5%
67.0% 62.0%
x x xxxx AQxxxxx
66.6% 62.5%
That can't possibly be right. The 4-7 shape has one less loser, so it should be worth a trick more than the first hand.
I suspect the problem is not the total loser count but the chance for exactly 2 losers is higher
"Tell me of your home world, Usul"
the Freman, Chani from the move "Dune"
"I learned long ago, never to wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it."
George Bernard Shaw
the Freman, Chani from the move "Dune"
"I learned long ago, never to wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it."
George Bernard Shaw
#48
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Posted 2010-April-18, 06:38
I suspect the Tuna misread gnasher's sarcastic post.
... and I can prove it with my usual, flawless logic.
George Carlin
George Carlin
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Posted 2010-April-18, 06:57
gwnn, on Apr 18 2010, 07:38 AM, said:
I suspect the Tuna misread gnasher's sarcastic post.
yep it was near 6AM (positive side) and the coffee hadn't finished brewing.
"Tell me of your home world, Usul"
the Freman, Chani from the move "Dune"
"I learned long ago, never to wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it."
George Bernard Shaw
the Freman, Chani from the move "Dune"
"I learned long ago, never to wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it."
George Bernard Shaw
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Posted 2010-April-18, 17:58
FrancesHinden, on Apr 16 2010, 03:09 AM, said:
Quote
And I don't know what 6 cover cards means but that seems not to make a whole lot of sense. On the other hand, if you have in fact solved the problem of constructive bidding, let me know...
Is sarcasm strictly necessary? Particularly as I never said anything about 'cover cards'
Yeah, this wasn't directed at you, it was at the 6 cover cards poster.
I'm glad the sims vindicate my feelings about the difference between 330 and 222 (lol), I was surprised that 6C was that likely to make with the actual hand I gave. I guess the risk of going minus in a weak field wasn't as high as I thought it was, need to work on my evaluation opposite 2Nt openers I guess.