[bluecalm]

(Or teach me to use BBO calculator)

Here is a hand I played recently:

Scoring: IMP

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I played in 4♥.
N led 9♣ I took in the hand with T♣.
I now played Q♥. S won with the ace and gave his partner a club ruff.
Opponents then opened spades (assume distribution of spades between them is not readable now).
I won spade honor with the ace and now I need to decide if I should play for a drop or for finesse.
This exact situation occurred at several other tables (most other players much better than me). I played for finesse. Most played for a drop.

You ?

[nige1]

bluecalm, on Apr 10 2010, 07:20 PM, said:

Scoring: IMP

(Or teach me to use BBO calculator). Here is a hand I played recently: I played in 4♥. N led 9♣ I took in the hand with T♣. I now played Q♥. S won with the ace and gave his partner a club ruff. Opponents then opened spades (assume distribution of spades between them is not readable now). I won spade honor with the ace and now I need to decide if I should play for a drop or for finesse. This exact situation occurred at several other tables (most other players much better than me). I played for finesse. Most played for a drop. You ?

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IMO, correct play depends to some extent on the auction and the calibre of your opponents. LHO has more vacant spaces for hearts but an argument for playing for a 3-2 break is that, with ♥j9xx, LHO might have tried to force you rather than trying for a ruff.

[Free]

nige1, on Apr 11 2010, 01:39 AM, said:

bluecalm, on Apr 10 2010, 07:20 PM, said:

Scoring: IMP

(Or teach me to use BBO calculator). Here is a hand I played recently: I played in 4♥. N led 9♣ I took in the hand with T♣. I now played Q♥. S won with the ace and gave his partner a club ruff. Opponents then opened spades (assume distribution of spades between them is not readable now). I won spade honor with the ace and now I need to decide if I should play for a drop or for finesse. This exact situation occurred at several other tables (most other players much better than me). I played for finesse. Most played for a drop. You ?

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IMO, correct play depends to some extent on the auction and the calibre of your opponents. LHO has more vacant spaces for hearts but an argument for playing for a 3-2 break is that, with ♥j9xx, LHO might have tried to force you rather than trying for a ruff.

♥9 is in dummy. His best holding can only be J652, forcing declarer will be hard imo.

I'd like to know which ♣ South played when giving his partner a ruff, and which ♠ South played. Did North get a chance to overcall 1♠?

It seems that South holds 6♣s and at least 2♦s. There's enough space for 1♥ and some ♠s, but it's very tempting to play for the finesse.

[FrancesHinden]

This hand is far more interesting as a play problem than the straight odds question in hearts you present.

From your opponents' leading methods, is the club lead definitely shortage?

If the opening lead is a singleton you really want to start hearts from dummy by leading towards the queen in hand to make it painful for RHO to rise with the ace. Is that worth burning a potential club trick to do so? I'm not sure. If you decide the start hearts from hand, is the queen right? Or is running the 10 right?

Anyway, given that clubs are 1=6, with no other information(so ignoring all that discussion above) is it more likely that LHO originally started with J652, or with 652? The short answer to that question is that J652 is more likely, by about 6:4.

Does that mean it's right to finesse?

Not necessarily.

If RHO has the ace of diamonds, then you were off anyway on the line you have taken if LHO has the jack of hearts because there is a trump promotion. If RHO gave suit pref for diamonds and LHO didn't play a diamond I would try and drop AJ doubleton heart on my right.

You also know RHO isn't 5=1=1=6 as they could have beaten you by force a different way.

Looking at J652 of hearts, LHO is definitely less likely to lead a singleton club than holding 652. Not so much because of trying to force you off, but simply that a club ruff may cost a trump trick anyway and may pick up the suit for declarer. This comes back, again, to the auction. How did you end up in 4H by West? After a weak NT and invitational Stayman auction?

[bluecalm]

Quote

From your opponents' leading methods, is the club lead definitely shortage?

They lead 2/4 (polish 2/4, not english 2/4) so 9 is either stiff 9 or J9x; given the auction I would say it's 90%+ stiff 9.

Auction (opponents silent)
pass 1NT (15-17)
2♣ 2♥
4♥ pass

Quote

If you decide the start hearts from hand, is the queen right? Or is running the 10 right?

Well, as lead is probably from shortness I think finessing J♥ in leader's hand is natural. This is why I started with the queen. Am I missing something here ?

Quote

The short answer to that question is that J652 is more likely, by about 6:4.

This is why I made reference to BBO calculator in the topic. I am getting different answer so either I am using it wrong or I don't understand this too well. Help ?

I gave the auction above. 5-1-1-6 etc. in either hand is not likely because they probably wouldn't pass.

Quote

I'd like to know which ♣ South played when giving his partner a ruff, and which ♠ South played. Did North get a chance to overcall 1♠?

He played a high club when giving a ruff.

[FrancesHinden]

bluecalm, on Apr 11 2010, 12:31 PM, said:

Quote

If you decide the start hearts from hand, is the queen right? Or is running the 10 right?

Well, as lead is probably from shortness I think finessing J♥ in leader's hand is natural. This is why I started with the queen. Am I missing something here ?

If you are always planning to play the leader for the HJ you should start by running the 10, not by playing the queen. This loses to singleton HJ on your right (very unlikely given what looks like a short suit club lead) but gains on the rather more likely layout when LHO has something like

Kxxx
Jxx
xxxxx
x

i.e. Jxx hearts and RHO has both red aces.
I can't work out from our auction if RHO is a passed hand and so is very unlikely to have both red aces.

[FrancesHinden]

bluecalm, on Apr 11 2010, 12:20 AM, said:

This exact situation occurred at several other tables (most other players much better than me). I played for finesse. Most played for a drop.

You ?

I'm surprised every other table thought that was a strong 1NT opening.

[dburn]

FrancesHinden, on Apr 11 2010, 05:42 AM, said:

If the opening lead is a singleton you really want to start hearts from dummy by leading towards the queen in hand to make it painful for RHO to rise with the ace. Is that worth burning a potential club trick to do so?  I'm not sure.

I am. If I win the club in dummy and play a heart, and South wins with the ace and gives North a club ruff, how will I make the contract if North then shifts to a spade?