[quiddity]

Scoring: MP

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On this hand you reach 3N as south without interference (1N-3N). West leads the ♥5 to East's queen and you duck. East continues with the ♥T, ducked, and you take your ace on the third round. You lead a club to the ace, dropping West's queen, and continue with two more top clubs, West pitching high-low (encouraging) in diamonds. East wins the fourth club as you throw a heart and West a low spade, then leads a diamond to your ace as West drops the queen. You play a spade to the king, everyone following low, and play your last club. West pitches a heart.

You play a spade and East follows with the 8. Finesse or drop? How would you expect an average club-player West to discard with/without the queen? How about an expert West? What do you make of West's silence during the auction?

[Jlall]

White/red at MP they might have bid with Qxx K9xxx KQxx Q but maybe not with xxx K9xxx KQxx Q, but you shouldn't put too much weight into that since a lot of people would bid with either both or neither of those hands. Still there is some clue.

Diamond-Diamond-Spade-Heart from an average club player in tempo is always xxx spades. Almost all would pitch Diamond-Diamond-Heart-Heart, the few others might go D-D-H-S. It's not like they are thinking that they are getting squeezed and planning ahead, their 5th heart is an easy discard the third time.

If it is an "expert" west they're probably following the general plan to pitch the squeeze card on the 2nd to last trick, and they realize they must pitch a spade at some point. Many "experts" are predictable in this way, if they're actually squeezed they pitch it on the 2nd to last card. On the other hand all of these people with 3 small spades will wait to the last card to pitch the spade, acting like they're squeezed.

Additionally, many of these people would pitch their spade ten for added effect (zomg I pitched the ten! Must only have the queen left). If RHO is also an "expert' though he also might have played the ten under the spade.

So if I assume an average expert, I think they have Qxx of spades every time. If I assume an average club player, I think they have Txx of spades every time.

Also, fwiw, if LHO is an "expert" such that you're going to play for the drop, you should be leading the S9 from dummy. If RHO follows with the 8, you might reconsider your plan, since few people can resist the urge to cover the 9 when they have T8 (very few in fact). So if it goes 9-T you follow through with your plan, 9-8 you reconsider.

On the other hand if LHO is a club player and you're going to hook the spade you should lead low from dummy. If RHO plays the ten you might reconsider, but that is a really common falsecard. Still you gain no info to change your mind ever if you lead the 9.

Edit: And if LHO is a world class player then it depends on too many variables, ie which world class opp, and what they think of you specifically.

[mikeh]

I found Justin's comments interesting. I have never actually thought a great deal about how various defenders will discard and I like the idea that someone who knows something about the game will usually pitch in the squeeze suit on his penultimate discard. But I would hope that real experts would be more alert than that...my preference has been to pitch somewhat randomly but probably earlier more than later. Now, I am going to reconsider...the idea of timing my pitch according to how good I think RHO is, is very interesting. Thx.

[Jlall]

mikeh, on Apr 9 2010, 02:28 PM, said:

my preference has been to pitch somewhat randomly but probably earlier more than later.

Mike, that is fine as long as you sometimes pitch from 3 small earlier rather than later. It is easy to randomize when you have the queen, it is difficult for most and something very few people do to randomize when you have 3 small.

It is just so ingrained in us to hold our 3 small for as long as possible so we don't give partner's queen up. When we have the queen is when we think about being tricky or not.

So if you are blanking your queen 60 % on the penultimate, and 40 % on the final trick when you have it, and blanking your 3 small 0 % on the penultimate, and 100 % on the final card then that is a game theoretical disaster. I could pick off the position 80 % of the time like that without even thinking about anything else, up from 50 % if you were actually random.

Honestly you can either try to exploit someone, or just try to balance your game. Most people play most of their hands against pretty weak opps. Against a majority of opps I also will blank my queen always on the penultimate, and blank my 3 small always on the ultimate. I will also drop the ten if I have Txx, or play the ten on the second round with the other hand, etc etc. This is the best way to exploit people, because most people who are bad at bridge do the reverse, the honest way of holding onto their honors as long as possible, but pitching from their 3 small.

However this makes those people just as predictable as the bad opps, even though they're good. And honestly in bridge few people are going to level you by pitching from 3 small on the penultimate round, THAT is where even very good players fail to randomize, then you can exploit them even if they randomize with the queen.

If both players are world class and also good as situations like this, it becomes a war of what level of thought people are on, alternatively you can just ignore it and always pitch a spade as your last card from either holding, or by ignoring their discards etc.

But I would say 99.9 % of players are on either level 1 or level 2, and it's very easy to figure out who will be on which level, so you can pretty much always get this type of spot right if you combine it with the spot cards played, the tempo of the play, etc etc.

[quiddity]

Interesting comments, thanks. I got this wrong at the table; I thought that an average club player would tend to pitch down to all winners instead of keeping a losing spade.

It never crossed my mind that I might pick up information based on the spot I played from dummy.

[kenrexford]

Very interesting discussion. I have always intuitively felt that both players (the one with the queen and the one without the Queen) should avoid being tricky and save spades until the last possible moment against good declarers, for one simple reason. Everyone (in theory) knows that the spade suit is critical, and so everyone should hold in the same way. Trickiness is too revealing. Now I feel somewhat vindicated.

[dake50]

Would RHO=EAST pitch S-10 sometimes?
"seeing" S-Qx partner
OR "faking" S-Qx?