[hanp]

It's matchpoint season in the Netherlands, what would you play here?

Scoring: MPs

1H - (1S) - 3NT - all pass

---

The spade 5 is led to the 9 and your queen. RHO drops the heart 9 under your ace and your heart 10 is not covered. Hook or Drop?

[Fluffy]

♥ players on a spade lead or switch are prone to guess hearts 3-2 and score 11 tricks, so we need hearts 4-1 to score better than them.

If they are not very good players they might fail to cash the clubs, but then, that translates to not being able to play ♥9 from ♥J9x as well

[jjbrr]

hook it

[OleBerg]

Maybe we should take the first trick in dummy, and lead The Curse of Scotland (Planning to rise with the queen). That way we will know, whether we need to play for hearts 4-1. (East might duck the King, or Clubs might not be cashed.)

There's danger in this, but hooking hearts could be disastorous too. And other players might be in 3NT. I think this line beats theirs.

[dake50]

1S overcall was on S-Jxxxx(x) AND H-Jxxx? I bet not in a sane universe.

[jjbrr]

dake50, on Mar 30 2010, 12:16 PM, said:

1S overcall was on S-Jxxxx(x) AND H-Jxxx? I bet not in a sane universe.

We already cashed the ♥A. We're finessing LHO against Jxxx, not the ♠ overcaller.

[gwnn]

I'd hook it, I want to be a genius.

[Pict]

I'd definitely try to run the hearts.

I assume I'm playing similar opponents and I'm not losing by over-thinking their defensive cards.

[Jlall]

If I wanted to go all out to make 5 I would win the SK at trick 1 and lead a club towards my hand.

If RHO has the AK (likely) and hearts come in I will make 5 (unless RHO somehow wins and shifts to a diamond and I misguess, very unlikely).

If LHO has an honor they will likely win and play a spade if they have one. At that point I will squeeze RHO (with a spade entry to my hand) and endplay him to make 5.

Even if LHO has an honor and no spade left, they will often not play a diamond, especially if they have the jack. Even if they do RHO will often not cash his club after I had gone after clubs.

Basically I have already played this hand very badly if I want to make 5 because I have messed up my entries. For instance if I win the HK now and play a club up and RHO wins and plays a spade I will have to win in dummy and run hearts, squeezing myself. If I come down to QJ of clubs and the DQ and play a spade to my hand, RHO could come down to Hx of diamonds and a high club. So I came down to stiff CQ and Qx of diamonds and RHO comes down to Hx of diamonds and a high club and I have to guess, or alternatively comes down to stiff DH and Hx of clubs and I have to guess, neither of which is that appetizing.

Also if LHO has a club honor he will much more easily be able to find the defense of winning and playing a diamond now, and RHO will easily cash a club if he does that.

Most likely I chose to mess up my entries because my tactics right now involve avoiding a zero, which going all out assuming 3-2 hearts/stiff J certainly risks. If that is the case then why am I pondering hooking the heart which will certainly risk a zero. I would need a very strong read.

Very important factors to me are:

Do the opps play udca? (since then the 9 is possible from J9x not as a falsecard but as count)

What spot cards did LHO play (eg if LHO played the 5 then the 6, I would place RHO with the 4 100 % of the time and never hook)

Are these typical dutch who would bid 2S very often with J sixth and a stiff heart and whatever?

How is our game? Is it early in the session? Is it a qualifier.

Generally I would have just won the spade in dummy and played a club, and if I did not take that line then it would just be because things have made me ok with getting ave minus rather than a zero and I would continue with that theme by not hooking.

[Jlall]

The other advantage of winning and playing a club is that I will have the option of guessing hearts later in this spot with much more info (I'll know the spade count, I'll know whether RHO had both club honors, etc).

Also I will obv have to guess the shape for the squeeze if LHO wins the club and plays a spade, but there I feel much more confident guessing then since RHO always has the DK and the other club honor for his overcall, and I think I can get the shape right.

[jukmoi]

Jlall, on Mar 30 2010, 03:27 PM, said:

If I wanted to go all out to make 5 I would win the SK at trick 1 and lead a club towards my hand.

I believe this is the best line.

As it is, we probably have to hook the heart now to get a decent score. Even though it is a bone-headed play considering the heart suit in isolation.

[gnasher]

When you know that spades are 2=5 and RHO has ♥9, the probabilities of the relevant breaks are:

xxx-J 9.4%
xx-Jx 18.9%
Jxxx- 10.8%

(obtained from http://www.rpbridge.net/xsb2.htm because I'm too lazy to work them out for myself)

So, if you think that making 3NT+1 with hearts breaking is worth 28% or less, you should finesse.

If you cash a second spade and find them 1=6, the numbers change to

xxx-J 10.8%
xx-Jx 16.2%
Jxxx- 16.2%

which increases the threshold to 34%.

But Justin's plan is clearly better.

[jdonn]

gnasher, on Mar 31 2010, 05:32 AM, said:

But Justin's plan is clearly better.

I agree although I convinced myself it was right when oleberg said it before Justin.

[gnasher]

jdonn, on Mar 31 2010, 05:00 PM, said:

gnasher, on Mar 31 2010, 05:32 AM, said:

But Justin's plan is clearly better.

I agree although I convinced myself it was right when oleberg said it before Justin.

Except that he didn't. Justin recommends leading the Devil's Bedpost from dummy, whereas OleBerg suggested ♦9.

[kfay]

jdonn, on Mar 31 2010, 11:00 AM, said:

gnasher, on Mar 31 2010, 05:32 AM, said:

But Justin's plan is clearly better.

I agree although I convinced myself it was right when oleberg said it before Justin.

Curse of Scotland = ♦9

Beaten by Gnasher!

wd w/ Devil's Bedpost, btw.

[hanp]

If you finesse hearts you can later squeeze east to make 5 for a top. If you play hearts from the top you probably make only 3 for a bottom.

If you play a club at trick 2 you can still make 2+ if you guess the hand later.

If you play the curse of Scotland they probably cash their 3 tricks for a poor score.

[jdonn]

Lol what a bad beat, I knew the 4 of clubs had a nickname but forgot what it was.

And double bad beat I could have just posted the line myself before Justin even though I didn't think of it since oleberg's post did accidentally convince me it was right.

[Fluffy]

hanp, on Mar 31 2010, 04:27 PM, said:

If you play the curse of Scotland they probably cash their 3 tricks for a poor score.

Don't you lose 1♥, 1♦, 1♣ in 4♥ after a spade lead?

EDIT: ok, ♣A lead, but spade switch

[OleBerg]

hanp, on Mar 31 2010, 06:27 PM, said:

If you finesse hearts you can later squeeze east to make 5 for a top. If you play hearts from the top you probably make only 3 for a bottom.

If you play a club at trick 2 you can still make 2+ if you guess the hand later.

If you play the curse of Scotland they probably cash their 3 tricks for a poor score.

I find it obvious that Justins plan is better than mine, but I still think my plan is way better than the OP's. If they cash three thricks, I hook the hearts, for a good score, if they are 4-1. That must be better than making the decision at trick three.

But hy assume we are the only pair in 3NT? What bid was so strange, that we might not expect it to be done at other tables?

And if there are other tables in 3NT, it has significant value, to choose the best general line.

Justins line does that much better.

[OleBerg]

jdonn, on Mar 31 2010, 06:00 PM, said:

gnasher, on Mar 31 2010, 05:32 AM, said:

But Justin's plan is clearly better.

I agree although I convinced myself it was right when oleberg said it before Justin.

You learn well, my young Padawan. But you are still not a master of satire.