[Sambolino]

Scoring: IMP

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LHO starts the auction.

1♥-1♠-pass-2♥-
3♣-3♦-5♣-?

1♥ is 11-15

2♥ from your p would be michaels, weak or FG

[jukmoi]

A very dangerous hand where a large swing is possible. I guess 6NT relying that we can run ♠ and ♦ suits. This protects our ♥K and avoids ♥ ruff.

[jjbrr]

Wait wat? We have 11 ♠ at least and you think 6NT? Am I misreading something?

I'd bid 6♣

[hanp]

6♣. If partner bids 6♥ I'll bid 7♠.

At the moment we have 8 tricks in 6NT. And one club stopper.

[pooltuna]

hanp, on Mar 26 2010, 09:10 AM, said:

6♣. If partner bids 6♥ I'll bid 7♠.

At the moment we have 8 tricks in 6NT. And one club stopper.

Well I am glad to see no one thinks partner is idiotic enough to call 3♦ with

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Hopefully the OP can confirm that!

[jdonn]

I'm going to start a group called the "pool tuna example hand allstars" for people who pull examples hands out of I don't know where to make I don't know what point.

Oh sorry distracted. I like han's plan. Certainly I'm going to slam here.

[ArtK78]

Bidding the grand if partner has a heart control is probably the best way to go, but I am worried that partner might have done all of this bidding on:

KJxxxx
A
QJTxxx
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Bidding a grand on a hook is not where I want to be. But it is certainly likely that partner has the ♦K and ♠K on the bidding, and all that you need is first round heart control to take all the tricks.

The other possibility is that you are off 2 heart tricks, if partner has something like:

KJxxxx
xx
KQJxx
---

Both of these hands are consistent with the bidding if your partner feels that these hands are in-between weak and game forcing Michaels hands.

[jdonn]

I agree with art that we can't see partner's hand yet and thus have a >0% chance of making the wrong decision whatever we do. In fact I think we should just leave during the hand and go on a picnic instead.

But one thing I do not believe is that it's likely at all the opponents have 12 clubs.

[ArtK78]

jdonn, on Mar 26 2010, 11:05 AM, said:

I agree with art that we can't see partner's hand yet and thus have a >0% chance of making the wrong decision whatever we do. In fact I think we should just leave during the hand and go on a picnic instead.

But one thing I do not believe is that it's likely at all the opponents have 12 clubs.

There have been many times that I would have preferred going on a picnic than finish one of these hands.



Also, I agree that it is not likely that the opponents have 12 clubs between them. But it is not inconsistent with the auction. It is quite clear that East has a lot of clubs.

[jukmoi]

jjbrr, on Mar 26 2010, 09:02 AM, said:

Wait wat? We have 11 ♠ at least and you think 6NT? Am I misreading something?

I'd bid 6♣

This is Ok. Do you expect that partner understands what means 6♣ and how to continue?

[jjbrr]

jukmoi, on Mar 26 2010, 02:47 PM, said:

jjbrr, on Mar 26 2010, 09:02 AM, said:

Wait wat? We have 11 ♠ at least and you think 6NT? Am I misreading something?

I'd bid 6♣

This is Ok. Do you expect that partner understands what means 6♣ and how to continue?

Yes

[FrancesHinden]

jdonn, on Mar 26 2010, 04:05 PM, said:

But one thing I do not believe is that it's likely at all the opponents have 12 clubs.

Really? On the auction I'd have said 11 was most probable, and 10 & 12 equal second. RHO couldn't bid over 1S, but is prepared to raise 3C to 5C. I reckon he's got a lot of them. If you sound sufficiently confident about your 6S call he's quite likely to save, as well.

[jdonn]

FrancesHinden, on Mar 26 2010, 07:06 PM, said:

jdonn, on Mar 26 2010, 04:05 PM, said:

But one thing I do not believe is that it's likely at all the opponents have 12 clubs.

Really? On the auction I'd have said 11 was most probable, and 10 & 12 equal second. RHO couldn't bid over 1S, but is prepared to raise 3C to 5C. I reckon he's got a lot of them. If you sound sufficiently confident about your 6S call he's quite likely to save, as well.

I'll save it for someone to tell me the odds, but I strongly suspect that 10 card fits occur so much more often than 11 card fits which occur so much more often than 12 card fits, that your estimation is likely to be off even taking the bidding into account.

[Fluffy]

am I the only one who would like to know why partner didn't bid 2♥ the first round?

[Codo]

Fluffy, on Mar 29 2010, 08:42 PM, said:

am I the only one who would like to know why partner didn't bid 2♥ the first round?

yes... The rest of us thought that partner had an interm. Michales type hand.

[mikeh]

jdonn, on Mar 26 2010, 07:48 PM, said:

FrancesHinden, on Mar 26 2010, 07:06 PM, said:

jdonn, on Mar 26 2010, 04:05 PM, said:

But one thing I do not believe is that it's likely at all the opponents have 12 clubs.

Really? On the auction I'd have said 11 was most probable, and 10 & 12 equal second. RHO couldn't bid over 1S, but is prepared to raise 3C to 5C. I reckon he's got a lot of them. If you sound sufficiently confident about your 6S call he's quite likely to save, as well.

I'll save it for someone to tell me the odds, but I strongly suspect that 10 card fits occur so much more often than 11 card fits which occur so much more often than 12 card fits, that your estimation is likely to be off even taking the bidding into account.

I agree with Frances...except I would expect a 12 card fit more frequently than a 10 card fit their way. Consider....white v white, rho has a yarborough...either a complete one or something very close. LHO certainly holds at least 5 clubs, and RHO must also hold at least 5. When their MINIMUM number is 10, arguing that 10 is more likely than 11 or 12 combined seems a bit weak.

I cannot construct a hand on which LHO lacks the heart Ace, nor on which partner has a heart void.

Given that, 6♣ seems futile...but, if we are going to slam, what can it hurt?

The truth is that I think that we are in big trouble unless partner has a stiff or 1st round heart control. Our counterparts may have had a michaels auction in which case my hand my be declarer and LHO may lead a club from something like x AQJxx xx KQ10xx, and they miss their heart tricks. If so, we are 11 imps in the glue even if we stop in 5♥.

This impacts the imp odds of moving toward slam...if we may well be -11 making 5, there is less to lose by forcing to slam, and if we are forcing to slam, how can it hurt to try for the big one?

6♣

[cherdanno]

I think LHO is unlikely to have more than 5 clubs, just because 6-6 hands are so unlikely. And that RHO might well raise to 5♣ on (12)55 hands, and certainly on any hand with 5 clubs and a void. So just looking at opponents actions a 10-card club fit does seem quite likely (RHO having 5 clubs is just sooo much more likely than him having all seven remaining clubs, for the same reason that a 10 card fit is, a priori, soooooo much more likely than a 12 card fit).

But of course we also need to take partner's actions into account - if he has one heart, the suit almost has to be exactly 6=1=2=4 around the table, and a void is basically impossible. But if he has 2 hearts, he almost certainly needs to have club shortness - I can't imagine everyone having enough values for their action when he is 5=2=4=2.

I wouldn't try for a grand - for it to work, we basically need LHO to have the right 7-5 or 7-6 shape, as we need a heart void from partner.

[mikeh]

cherdanno, on Mar 29 2010, 12:11 PM, said:

I think LHO is unlikely to have more than 5 clubs, just because 6-6 hands are so unlikely. And that RHO might well raise to 5♣ on (12)55 hands, and certainly on any hand with 5 clubs and a void. So just looking at opponents actions a 10-card club fit does seem quite likely (RHO having 5 clubs is just sooo much more likely than him having all seven remaining clubs, for the same reason that a 10 card fit is, a priori, soooooo much  more likely than a 12 card fit).

But of course we also need to take partner's actions into account - if he has one heart, the suit almost has to be exactly 6=1=2=4 around the table, and a void is basically impossible. But if he has 2 hearts, he almost certainly needs to have club shortness - I can't imagine everyone having enough values for their action when he is 5=2=4=2.

I wouldn't try for a grand - for it to work, we basically need LHO to have the right 7-5 or 7-6 shape, as we need a heart void from partner.

So....you give up on grand, but do you bid small?

If you are committing to small, what is the cost of bidding 6♣?

If you bid 6♣ and partner fails to cue hearts, you are of course guaranteeing a heart lead against 6♠....but does anyone think that LHO is ever leading anything else?

I agree with you as to the likelihood of partner being void in hearts (or holding the Ace....rho being something like void QJ10xxx Qx KQJxx ), but if we are going to slam praying that he has some heart control, where's the downside?

Or are you bidding 5♠?

Oh...and from now on, when I hold a nine card suit, I will treat it as an 8 card suit, since it is so unlikely that I hold 9 of them. Strangely, I find that sort of argument remarkably unpersuasive.

[cherdanno]

Yes I am tempted to bid 5♠ only but would bid 6♠. The cost of biding 6♣ is that we might get to 7♠ opposite KJxxxx A QJTxx x.

Btw, one reason I am reluctant to say what I am bidding is that I find it highly likely that partner has 55 shape or more, and that I rarely see my partners trying for game with that shape - they seem to bid 3♠ or 4♠ in a competitive auction. So I really don't know what partner has.