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lead problem MP against 6nt after an "interesting" auction

#1 User is offline   Mbodell 

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Posted 2010-March-17, 05:48

Scoring: MP

Opponent's bid unopposed, starting with LHO:

1 - 1
1 - 1nt
4* - 4* ; kc gerber, 0 or 3 A
6nt


What do you lead?
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#2 User is offline   gordontd 

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Posted 2010-March-17, 05:59

2
Gordon Rainsford
London UK
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#3 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2010-March-17, 06:02

6
"It may be rude to leave to go to the bathroom, but it's downright stupid to sit there and piss yourself" - blackshoe
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#4 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2010-March-17, 06:16

6
... and I can prove it with my usual, flawless logic.
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#5 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2010-March-17, 06:28

Mbodell, on Mar 17 2010, 06:48 AM, said:

Scoring: MP

Opponent's bid unopposed, starting with LHO:
1 - 1
1 - 1nt
4* - 4* ; kc gerber, 0 or 3 A
6nt
What do you lead?
IMO = 10, = 9, = 5, = 2, hoping dummy is something like
AKQx A KQJTxx Ax or
AKQx Q AKQJxx Ax
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#6 User is offline   Codo 

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Posted 2010-March-18, 01:43

5
Kind Regards

Roland


Sanity Check: Failure (Fluffy)
More system is not the answer...
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#7 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2010-March-18, 04:19

can be the winner, also a club, but I don't expect a spade to ever work.

I'd go with a club.
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#8 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2010-March-18, 04:44

gonzalo, from LHO's bidding, he seems to have some 6-4 with solid diamonds. If a heart is the winner, I would say it's out of pure luck... More likely, you'll find them Ax opposite Qxxx and declarer will have an easy time ducking it.

I wouldn't go with a club because pard didn't double the g-bid... Since a diamond seems a bit pointless, that leaves a spade. It will look silly if they're AJxx K9x, but other than that it seems ok. It's even the book lead: against misfitted 2 suiters, lead through dummy's 2nd suit.
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#9 User is offline   mich-b 

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Posted 2010-March-18, 06:54

nige1, on Mar 17 2010, 07:28 AM, said:

Mbodell, on Mar 17 2010, 06:48 AM, said:

Scoring: MP

Opponent's bid unopposed, starting with LHO:
1 - 1
1 - 1nt
4* - 4* ; kc gerber, 0 or 3 A
6nt
What do you lead?
IMO = 10, = 9, = 5, = 2, hoping dummy is something like
AKQx A KQJTxx Ax or
AKQx Q AKQJxx Ax

If you think that is what dummy will look like (and I agree) , why did you give a 9 to the lead? a looks much more promissing.

Your example hands are worth a 2 opening , but perhaps LHO belongs to the camp which doesnt like to open 2 when they have 2 suits to show.
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#10 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2010-March-18, 07:14

whereagles, on Mar 18 2010, 10:44 AM, said:

gonzalo, from LHO's bidding, he seems to have some 6-4 with solid diamonds. If a heart is the winner, I would say it's out of pure luck... More likely, you'll find them Ax opposite Qxxx and declarer will have an easy time ducking it.

I wouldn't go with a club because pard didn't double the g-bid... Since a diamond seems a bit pointless, that leaves a spade. It will look silly if they're AJxx K9x, but other than that it seems ok. It's even the book lead: against misfitted 2 suiters, lead through dummy's 2nd suit.

what kind of spades do you expect from LHO who has gone to slam opposite 6-9 hand?
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#11 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2010-March-18, 07:17

Mbodell, on Mar 17 2010, 06:48 AM, said:

Scoring: MP

Opponent's bid unopposed, starting with LHO:
1 - 1
1 - 1nt
4* - 4* ; kc gerber, 0 or 3 A
6nt
What do you lead?

nige1, on Mar 17 2010, 07:28 AM, said:

IMO = 10, = 9, = 5, = 2, hoping dummy is something like
AKQx A KQJTxx Ax or
AKQx Q AKQJxx Ax

mich-b, on Mar 18 2010, 07:54 AM, said:

If you think that is what dummy will look like (and I agree) , why did you give a 9 to the lead?  a looks much more promising.Your example hands are worth a 2 opening , but perhaps LHO belongs to the camp which doesnt like to open 2 when they have 2 suits to show.
Because, as others point out, we're just guessing about opponents' holdings (I can't imagine hands that I would bid that way). For example if Whereagles is right that dummy is 4261, say, then a lead may not work. Also, if dummy is much weaker and flatter so that declarer-play is less straightforward, then a lead should be safe and may even disrupt communications. I still think a lead is our best bet but anything could be right :P
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#12 User is offline   hotShot 

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Posted 2010-March-18, 07:19

I don't like because the opp who is more likely to have honors there is behind partner.
I hope that dummy or my partner will play to my king.
I don't think opps can avoid a potential loser unless RHO has running (Holding KTxxx I don't expect to run.)
I think I'll start with as i expect partner to have 4-5 of them, hoping they not as solid as some think.
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#13 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2010-March-18, 09:09

Fluffy, on Mar 18 2010, 01:14 PM, said:

what kind of spades do you expect from LHO who has gone to slam opposite 6-9 hand?

Expect dummy's hand to look something like

AKxx
Q
AKQxxx
Ax

so a spade seems like a good lead to me, once pard didn't double clubs.
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#14 User is offline   OleBerg 

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Posted 2010-March-18, 10:36

K wtp?
_____________________________________

Do not underestimate the power of the dark side. Or the ninth trumph.

Best Regards Ole Berg

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We should always assume 2/1 unless otherwise stated, because:

- If the original poster didn't bother to state his system, that means that he thinks it's obvious what he's playing. The only people who think this are 2/1 players.


Gnasher
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#15 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2010-March-18, 11:57

whereagles, on Mar 18 2010, 10:09 AM, said:

Expect dummy's hand to look something like
AKxx
Q
AKQxxx
Ax
so a spade seems like a good lead to me, once pard didn't double clubs.
A lead may set up more undertricks but if you trust RHO to count his aces correctly, then cashing the first three tricks should produce a fair score :)
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#16 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2010-March-18, 13:32

look, you can cook up some more appropriate hands yourself, no? :)
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#17 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2010-March-18, 19:39

whereagles, on Mar 18 2010, 02:32 PM, said:

look, you can cook up some more appropriate hands yourself, no? :)
OK :) here is a plausible layout where a is the only lead that defeats 6N. It disrupts declarer's communications :)

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#18 User is offline   Mbodell 

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Posted 2010-March-18, 19:39

We were given misinformation in the auction, and told the declarer had 1 ace, which he corrected after I made the opening club lead and dummy was tabled.

Dummy was AKxx 8 AKxxxx AK and partner has AJ9 of hearts and a heart lead and continue leads to down 4. On the club lead opponents get 4 clubs (declarer has QJxx), 4 spades (declarer has Qxx), and 2 diamonds for down 2.

I was thinking that a heart lead I might make with the information 0 or 3 aces, but that it seemed unadvised if he's showing 1 ace. Therefore the question was damages.

It was a pair game and the MP between +200 and +400 was probably not going to matter, but I wanted to see if the heart lead is reasonable with just your hand and the auction, obviously it is mandatory after seeing the dummy.
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#19 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2010-March-18, 19:48

Mbodell, on Mar 18 2010, 08:39 PM, said:

We were given misinformation in the auction, and told the declarer had 1 ace, which he corrected after I made the opening club lead and dummy was tabled. Dummy was AKxx 8 AKxxxx AK and partner has AJ9 of hearts and a heart lead and continue leads to down 4.  On the club lead opponents get 4 clubs (declarer has QJxx), 4 spades (declarer has Qxx), and 2 diamonds for down 2. I was thinking that a heart lead Imight make with the information 0 or 3 aces, but that it seemed unadvised if he's showing 1 ace.  Therefore the question was damages. It was a pair game and the MP between +200 and +400 was probably not going to matter, but I wanted to see if the heart lead is reasonable with just your hand and the auction, obviously it is mandatory after seeing the dummy.
If the director included Mich-b and me in a poll, then he might conclude that you were damaged.
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#20 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2010-March-18, 21:25

yeah so so very damaged, the opponents had a missunderstanding that put them in -200 or -400 against nothing you were so very damaged O_o
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