[PhantomSac]

Scoring: IMP

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1H-1S-2H-4H.

CQ lead.
You win the king, heart to dummy, cash a club pitching a diamond, and lead a heart to the ace, RHO shows out.

You are playing swiss teams, it's the last match, opps are average plus but not amazing. They play standard leads and carding

You have 122 VPs, they have 119 VPs, there is another team who is good with 118 VPs playing another team that is good. You are using a 30 VP ACBL scale.

How do you proceed?

[Fluffy]

if its a short match I'd go for the extras with spade finese unblocking the 9. If 14 boards or more and its first board I am playing safety.

[ArtK78]

There is no chance that I will jeopardize my game that might have gone down on a different lead.

So, I pull trump. I can even afford to play an extra trump. Now I play a spade to the J. If it wins, I exit a diamond, giving up on the small chance of making all 13 tricks. I am willing to settle for 11.

Yes, the chances of going down in 4♥ are very small. LHO did not lead a spade and it would take a singleton (non king) spade in LHO's hand for it to be wrong to finesse the spade prior to pulling the third round of trump. And mathematically my expected return for finessing the spade in an attempt to make 13 tricks may justify the small chance of going down once every 5000 hands (clearly an exaggeration). But I am not going to take that chance.

By the way, depending on the result of our match, the extra overtricks gained by finessing the spade prior to pulling the last trump may not even produce an extra VP. But there is no doubt that going down by risking the contract when things are foul will cost VPs.

[Fluffy]

your line might go down in 4♥ art

[ArtK78]

Fluffy, on Mar 8 2010, 12:49 PM, said:

your line might go down in 4♥ art

Trump are 3-1. No one showed out on the first round of trump. I can afford to play 4 rounds of trump total leaving me with 2 before taking the first spade finesse without any danger.

[Fluffy]

bah, I though RHO picthed on first trick, sorry

[jdonn]

3!!! overtricks, and they didn't lead a stiff spade? I'm manning up, spade finesse.

[ArtK78]

Yes, 3 overtricks. But only 2 additional overtricks. Playing safe still leads to 11 tricks.

[jdonn]

Ok sorry I'll use fewer exclamation points. 2!! additional overtricks! I'm going for it.

[Fluffy]

yeah, but what's 2 IMPs here?, the only time I played with JCBL 30 VP scale 2 IMPs where already 21-9 victory

[jdonn]

Maybe it's no victory point difference at all. Maybe it brings me from third to first. But I think it's so unlikely they didn't lead a stiff spade if they had it that it's worth it. Geez you all put the imps in WIMPS.

[PhantomSac]

jdonn, on Mar 8 2010, 12:54 PM, said:

3!!! overtricks, and they didn't lead a stiff spade? I'm manning up, spade finesse.

Usually it's a strong inference when they don't lead a sitff, but when they have a good club sequence, and dummy has bid their stiff, it seems like that is less of an inference than usual.

Also with RHO having short hearts, the likelihood of him having 4 spades goes up obv.

[PhantomSac]

Fluffy, on Mar 8 2010, 12:56 PM, said:

yeah, but what's 2 IMPs here?, the only time I played with JCBL 30 VP scale 2 IMPs where already 21-9 victory

In this ridiculous scale, if you lose by 1 it is a 12-18 loss (meaning they beat us in the event). So if we lose by 1 or 2 without the overtricks, then the overtricks would have meant we beat them in the event rather than lose to them in the event.

Any other time, the 2 imps would be irrelevant for us beating them in the event. So I'd say if the 118 team didn't exist, it would change things a lot. However with the 118 team in the game, the extra VP from 2 imps is another possible bonus for this play in terms of winning the event.

[Fluffy]

ok, seems like the scale I know, I am going for the overtricks if nothing but flat boards (or no boards at all) have come so far

[jjbrr]

If this is the first or second board of the match, I'll make my game. If it's towards the end of the match and I judge the score might be close, I'll go for the victoryyyyyyyyyy.

[gwnn]

doesn't vulnerability count a little?

[ArtK78]

The impact of 2 overtricks depends on two things: (1) the result at the other table on this board; and (2) the overall result of the match.

I didn't have the ACBL 30 VP scale available to me so I googled it and found this:

0 15-15
1 18-12
2 19-11
3 20-10
4 21-9
5-6 22-8
7-8 23-7
9-10 24-6
11-13 25-5
14-16 26-4
17-19 27-3
20-23 28-2
24-27 29-1
28 and over 30-0

In a close match, 2 IMPs can be very significant - potentially as many as 6 VPs (win by 1 as opposed to lose by 1). If the IMP difference in the match is 5-10, then two IMPs will translate into 1 VP (excluding a change from 3 IMPs to 5 IMPs, which is 2 VPs). Once the IMP difference in the match is 11 IMPs or higher, the VP difference may be 1 VP or it may be zero VPs. So, as far as the second point is concerned, the utility of the overtricks depends on the state of the match.

The first point - the result on the board - may be more significant. If you can judge with reasonable certainty that the contract will be the same and the opening lead will be the same, then you can make a judgment call as to whether to risk the contract (clearly a small risk) in an attempt to gain 2 additional overtricks. But suppose there was an accident at the other table and your opponents (1) missed game; (2) got to slam off 2 top diamonds minimum; or (3) got to 3NT off 5 diamond tricks. Now it is not clear that the overtricks are meaningful at all. You might be taking a small risk in order to gain nothing.

Part of the conditions of this problem was that the opponents were average plus but not amazing. So you expect to beat them, perhaps by double-digits. So, even if you judge correctly that the contract and the opening lead at the other table will be the same, you are likely to be risking your contract for a gain of zero or 1 VP.

[PhantomSac]

Fluffy, on Mar 8 2010, 01:12 PM, said:

ok, seems like the scale I know, I am going for the overtricks if nothing but flat boards (or no boards at all) have come so far

2nd board out out of 8.

You do feel like you have a pretty big edge on this team.

[PhantomSac]

gwnn, on Mar 8 2010, 01:13 PM, said:

doesn't vulnerability count a little?

Yeah, you are vul.

Question to everyone: When LHO has a stiff spade, what %age of the times will the opponents get their ruff after you play a spade?

[Fluffy]

big edge? :/.

Do the 4 pairs play 2/1 SAYC system or is any strong club around?