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Absurd?

#1 User is offline   hanp 

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Posted 2010-March-02, 06:21

Axxx
x
KJ8x
J108x

You deal and pass. The opponents bid (all natural, starting on your left):

1C - 1D
2S - 3D
3NT - pass

How absurd is doubling for a diamond lead?

IMPs, good opponents but not a regular partnership.
and the result can be plotted on a graph.
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#2 User is offline   OleBerg 

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Posted 2010-March-02, 06:31

It seems a little odd to command partner to lead a suit where my RHO has shown 6.

So I use this meaning for the double: "I have values in diamonds; they are under control. Be carefull not to lead into a tenace."

So I would double on the example hand.
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We should always assume 2/1 unless otherwise stated, because:

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#3 User is offline   kfay 

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Posted 2010-March-02, 06:32

I don't think it's absurd.

KQJx
AQx
x
AKQ9x

Anyway partner's heart lead sure isn't going to do us any favors. Wonder why s/he didn't bid hearts... Little afraid dummy has the K here. Maybe Kxxxxx...

The problem is I can only lead hearts one time. So if declarer pops with the heart ace he's probably always going to make this....

OK I pass. Decent idea, though.
Kevin Fay
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#4 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2010-March-02, 07:15

I think it's clearly wrong. Partner has at least five hearts and didn't overcall, so we won't find him with as much as K and A. And we're not even particularly sure that a diamond lead is best.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#5 User is offline   rhm 

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Posted 2010-March-02, 07:23

Not absurd, because it may increase your chances of beating the contract slightly, but certainly against the odds. The double is silly, because the risks are far greater:
Both opponents are essentially unlimited, since 2S was game forcing.
If RHO is not minimum with bad diamonds he will redouble.
RHO might have looked for slam, in which case redoubled overtricks are likely.
A double digit number of imps thrown away.

Rainer Herrmann
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#6 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2010-March-02, 08:18

It will be hard for the opponents to make with an overtrick on a diamond lead, so doubling is right.
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#7 User is offline   Apollo81 

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Posted 2010-March-02, 08:25

I don't think it's absurd at all. It significantly increases your chances of beating the contract.
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#8 User is offline   pooltuna 

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Posted 2010-March-02, 09:34

hanp, on Mar 2 2010, 07:21 AM, said:

Axxx
x
KJ8x
J108x

You deal and pass. The opponents bid (all natural, starting on your left):

1C - 1D
2S - 3D
3NT - pass

How absurd is doubling for a diamond lead?

IMPs, good opponents but not a regular partnership.

It will probably get you the best defense for the hand. That is however not the same as setting the contract so IMO probably questionable at MP but have to do the math for IMPS
"Tell me of your home world, Usul"
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#9 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2010-March-02, 10:26

I like double because they are getting bad breaks all around, and I'm desperate to stop a heart lead.
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.
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#10 User is offline   jjbrr 

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Posted 2010-March-02, 10:33

I'm a chicken.
OK
bed
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#11 User is offline   PhantomSac 

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Posted 2010-March-02, 13:32

Absurd, they can easily redouble here. Don't agree with fluffy that it will be hard to make overtricks either.

Partner almost always has six hearts here fwiw. I guess it depends on the vulnerability, and how sound parnter is in overcalling, and whether RHO would bypass diamonds to bid hearts, but them having 28 or w/e HCP seems very likely to me.
The artist formerly known as jlall
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#12 User is offline   rogerclee 

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Posted 2010-March-02, 13:44

Agree with the people who note that partner has 5-6 hearts and couldn't bid, so double seems way too dangerous.
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#13 User is offline   hanp 

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Posted 2010-March-02, 14:57

I agree that double is bad. As Justin noted, partner with 5-6 hearts (6 in practice) can't have much so they are quite likely to make overtricks. Also, partner is unlikely to have the ace, king or queen of hearts so a heart lead is probably not going to cost.

I did double but got lucky: 3NT went 1 off after partner led his singleton diamond. It only makes after a spade lead.
and the result can be plotted on a graph.
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#14 User is offline   PhantomSac 

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Posted 2010-March-02, 15:00

You're so dutch now
The artist formerly known as jlall
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#15 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2010-March-02, 17:10

I think a heart lead from the jack will often cost, partner could easily have the queen which could also cost, and if most of his strength if outside hearts that is good for our defense anyway. Yes they aren't limited which is a problem but not everyone redoubles either, or redoubles at the right times.
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.
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