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I was super pressed for time, so I think I missed a couple of inferences at the table that I should totally have picked up on. So what should I be thinking about, and what should my plan be?
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#1
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Posted 2010-February-16, 08:30
I was super pressed for time, so I think I missed a couple of inferences at the table that I should totally have picked up on. So what should I be thinking about, and what should my plan be?
Still decidedly intermediate - don't take my guesses as authoritative.
"gwnn" said:
rule number 1 in efficient forum reading:
hanp does not always mean literally what he writes.
hanp does not always mean literally what he writes.
#2
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Posted 2010-February-17, 08:28
Things I missed at the table:
- Both opps passed with 10 diamonds between them. Decent chance they split 5/5.
- LHO overcalled with a 4 card heart suit, without the ace.
If I can play spades for 1 loser, I have 7 tricks - 2 clubs, 4 spades, and the spade ruff I just took in the short hand. If I can play spades for 0 losers (if they're 2-2), I have 8 right now.
Given that RHO has 9 red cards, clubs splitting 3-3 is unlikely, but establishing clubs would obviously be great at matchpoints. If clubs are ever going to run, RHO needs to have a singleton honour, so I'll need to finesse LHO's honour after I play the K♠. However, if I do that, I won't have the entries I need to dummy's clubs.
So I guess the best line from here is low to the K♠ - if an honour fals on your right, A♣, ♣ ruff, finesse ♠s. If no honour falls, A♣, ♣ ruff, A♠, ♣ ruff, ♥ ruff, and clubs now run.
That's my guess anyways. I wish I'd seen more at the table, would have made chosing a line easier than guessing, which is what I wound up doing.
- Both opps passed with 10 diamonds between them. Decent chance they split 5/5.
- LHO overcalled with a 4 card heart suit, without the ace.
If I can play spades for 1 loser, I have 7 tricks - 2 clubs, 4 spades, and the spade ruff I just took in the short hand. If I can play spades for 0 losers (if they're 2-2), I have 8 right now.
Given that RHO has 9 red cards, clubs splitting 3-3 is unlikely, but establishing clubs would obviously be great at matchpoints. If clubs are ever going to run, RHO needs to have a singleton honour, so I'll need to finesse LHO's honour after I play the K♠. However, if I do that, I won't have the entries I need to dummy's clubs.
So I guess the best line from here is low to the K♠ - if an honour fals on your right, A♣, ♣ ruff, finesse ♠s. If no honour falls, A♣, ♣ ruff, A♠, ♣ ruff, ♥ ruff, and clubs now run.
That's my guess anyways. I wish I'd seen more at the table, would have made chosing a line easier than guessing, which is what I wound up doing.
Still decidedly intermediate - don't take my guesses as authoritative.
"gwnn" said:
rule number 1 in efficient forum reading:
hanp does not always mean literally what he writes.
hanp does not always mean literally what he writes.
#3
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Posted 2010-February-17, 09:02
vuroth, on Feb 17 2010, 02:28 PM, said:
Given that RHO has 9 red cards, clubs splitting 3-3 is unlikely
OK, its against the book odds - but it isn't as unlikely as all that. You've already guessed that diamonds are likely 5-5 and hearts 2-4. But they have 22hcp between them and neither opened - so quite likely the high cards are very evenly divided. Now if righty had 11hcp, 5 diamonds and 4 hearts and 3 spades, surely he would have Xed rather than overcalled. So presumably righty doesn't have 3 spades - in which case he probably has 2 or 3 clubs.
Just thinkin' here.
Nick
P.S. If righty had 5 diamonds and 4 hearts, why didn't he overcall ♦?
"Pass is your friend" - my brother in law - who likes to bid a lot.
#4
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Posted 2010-February-17, 10:16
Yes, surely 1453 is a very likely shape for RHO. I would guess he is either 1453, 2452, or possibly 1444. In any case I think I would start with two top clubs and a club ruff.
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P P P 1♣
1♥ 1♠ P 2♠
P P P
LHO leads, the A♥, then the A[DE], then the T♥, won by RHO. RHO exits the Q♦