[PhantomSac]

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LHO opens 1H, and you get to 6D on the CK lead. Plan your play.

[Mbodell]

Spoiler

If everything goes well I'm going to win my 12 tricks as 3♣+6♦+2♥+1♠. I am more concerned about making then overtricks, so I should consider what can go wrong. The most obvious bad problem is a bad trump break. If we get a 4-1 or worse trump break we may have problems with the ♦J. We can mitigate that by either not having an outside loser (unlikely, but possible if spades ruff good) or by setting up a trump coup.

Fortunately, the plan for both is the same, win the ♣A and ruff a small ♠. Now we play ♦ to the A and can ruff another small ♠ assuming nothing interesting has happened. Now we probably cash the ♦K and if trumps were 3-2 we pull and lose a ♣. If they were 1-4 with East having 4 to the Jack we've shortened ourselves and need to decide if we should play on clubs (risky as if East has 2 we can go down) or if we should cross to dummy and pitch a club on the spade (risky as we may need to finesse in hearts to do this and still preserve the entries we need) and I'd probably need to think about the cards played to the early spade ruffs and the discards and what not. Of course this means maybe I should duck the opening lead so that I lose the club trick now and not when there is a trump risk? The risk in doing it would be if the lead was from 5 clubs and now east can ruff or if the lead wasn't from KQ in which case I'll go down likely if I play on clubs. I suspect that maybe I should have ducked this lead.

If trumps are 4-1 on the wrong side with a definite diamond loser we'll need incredible luck with 3 pitches on the spades (2♣ and 1♥) and the heart finesse which would give west something like xxxxx Qx Jxxx KQ

[ONEferBRID]

PhantomSac, on Feb 12 2010, 01:50 AM, said:

Dealer: ????? Vul: ???? Scoring: Unknown

♠ AQTxx ♥ KJ ♦ Ax ♣ AJ8x ♠   ♥ A9xx ♦ KQT9xx ♣ T9x

LHO opens 1H, and you get to 6D on the CK lead. Plan your play.

Duck the ♣K... unblocking the 10 (or 9 ) from hand.

Win any return.
Draw trump ( need 3-2 split or stiff J ).

The 2 losing Hts in hand go on the long Cl and Sp Ace.

[pooltuna]

I assume since you asked that we shouldn't try the "gut reaction" line that produce 6♦, 3♣,2♥,& 1♠

[jdonn]

ONEferBRID, on Feb 12 2010, 03:58 AM, said:

Duck the ♣K... unblocking the 10 (or 9 ) from hand.

Win any return.
Draw trump ( need 3-2 split or stiff J ).

The 2 losing Hts in hand go on the long Cl and Sp Ace.

Why not win the club, draw trumps (needing 3-2 or stiff J), and give up a club winning the exact same tricks but not going down needlessly when clubs are 5-1? (I'm not saying that's the best line of play, just that it's provably better than yours.)

[ONEferBRID]

jdonn, on Feb 12 2010, 12:07 PM, said:

ONEferBRID, on Feb 12 2010, 03:58 AM, said:

Duck the ♣K... unblocking the 10 (or 9 ) from hand.

Win any return.
Draw trump ( need 3-2 split or stiff J ).

The 2 losing Hts in hand go on the long Cl and Sp Ace.

Why not win the club, draw trumps (needing 3-2 or stiff J), and give up a club winning the exact same tricks but not going down needlessly when clubs are 5-1? (I'm not saying that's the best line of play, just that it's provably better than yours.)

Yes, that would work too.... and safer.

[andrei]

1. win A♣
2. play A♠ with ♣ discard
3. ruff a ♠.
4. play ♣

I think I can make it now whatever W is returning (playing W for Q♥), planing to ruff one more spade if diamonds are 4-1 for a trump coup.

[billw55]

I take the A♣, ruff a spade, A♦, ruff a spade, KQ♦. I think that gives me a small extra chance in case trumps don't break.