[Fluffy]

Scoring: IMP

(1♠)-X-(ps)-2♣
(2♠)-X-(ps)-3♣
(ps)-3♦-(ps)-3♠
(ps)-4♠-(ps)-6♣
(ps)-(ps)-(ps)

---

the play (opps play std carding if it matters)

♥10 lead

spade King from dummy took by west's ace

another heart comes back now.

[gnasher]

♣8 to the king, ♠J, spade ruff with the ace, draw trumps taking a finesse.

If West plays ♣J on the first round, I can finesse against East's 9.

Edit: This doesn't seem likely to work. LHO probably has seven spades, given his overall weakness and poor suit. However, I can't think of anything better.

Reedit: So what? I'm still OK if he has seven spades. What I can't cope with is spades 8-1.

This post has been edited by gnasher: 2010-February-09, 15:20

[ONEferBRID]

Looks like it can make if West has 6 Sp to the A Q, 2 Hts and 2 Cl.

T4 & 5 : A & K of Cl

T5 & 6 : Cash last 2 Hts, pitching Diam.

T7: Ruff Diam

T8: Sp J ( for ruffing finesse )

T9: ruff Sp 10 ( if West did not cover J )

T10: Back to hand w/ another Diam ruff

T11: Claim last 2 trumps.

[kenrexford]

This is interesting. If you knew certain aspects of West's hand, alternative lines come to mind. For instance, if West is known to have one set of knowns, then you can end up running a diamond-spade squeeze against him. If you know that West has 6232 shape, then you could simply ruff out the spade and get back to hand in time.

So, what does West have?

It seems fairly certain that he needs to have AQ-sixth or AQ-seventh in spades. He also seems to have two hearts. To have much play, West needs to have 2-3 clubs (meaning at most three diamonds) or the stiff club Jack.

Why no 2♠ or 3♠ opening?

West surely has the diamond King, and I expect this to be protected, meaning at least Kx. Still, with something like ♠AQxxxx ♥10x ♦Kxx ♣xx, that seems like a classic 2♠ opening.

On the one hand, this might all suggest a 7-bagger. On the other hand, perhaps Opener has a stronger diamond holding than expected, something like KQx?

I might just conspiracy theory myself into playing West for ♠AQxxxx ♥10x ♦KQx ♣Jx (club Jack unimportant, but catered to). In that event, a working line would be to simply run the spade Jack. When it holds, I then abandon trying for a ruff (lest West have the seventh spade) and opt for a squeeze, playing a club to the Ace (to extract West's remaining club if he has one) and then cashing out the hearts before returning to hand (finesse of the club Jack from RHO if needed) to run a spade-diamond squeeze against West.

That line requires Opener to have no more than two clubs (reasonably likely, I think) and the K-Q of diamonds (hesitant). It handles either 6-card or 7-card spades. It does require hearts to be what they appear (2-4). I can actually handle Jxxx in clubs from East, a bonus.

Not sure...

[CSGibson]

kenrexford, on Feb 9 2010, 02:15 PM, said:

On the one hand, this might all suggest a 7-bagger. On the other hand, perhaps Opener has a stronger diamond holding than expected, something like KQx?

I'm pretty sure that with KQx of diamonds and an outside ace, the king of diamonds would be the standard lead in a slam, not the T of hearts.

[Fluffy]

he indeed had ♦KQ, why he didn't lead one is because he didn't think dummy would produce a spade.

on the first club LHO plays the 9, and if instead of playing ♠J you play ♠10 it will hold the trick

[kenrexford]

Fluffy, on Feb 10 2010, 07:53 AM, said:

he indeed had ♦KQ, why he didn't lead one is because he didn't think dummy would produce a spade.

on the first club LHO plays the 9, and if instead of playing ♠J you play ♠10 it will hold the trick

That's a good point. After all, if you want to win the first spade, playing the 10 first seems better. But, if it actually matters to West, then this is evidence that West has only six spades, IF East follows with the 9 (or the equivalent happens).

[gnasher]

If ♣9 is a singleton in a 7=2=3=1 or 6=2=4=1 shape, we can make by drawing a second trump in dummy, cashing the hearts, finessing in trumps, and then squeezing him in the pointed suits. However, if that's the layout LHO has misdefended - he should have covered the spade, which forces us to guess whether trumps are 4-1.

Compared with my first line (ruff the third spade high and take a trump finesse), drawing a second trump also gains against 7222/6232 with ♣J.

My first line gains when LHO has 3-4 hearts, 2+ clubs, and not ♣J. However, that doesn't leave much room for him to hold ♦KQ. Maybe drawing a second trump is better.

[cherdanno]

CSGibson, on Feb 9 2010, 09:44 PM, said:

kenrexford, on Feb 9 2010, 02:15 PM, said:

On the one hand, this might all suggest a 7-bagger.  On the other hand, perhaps Opener has a stronger diamond holding than expected, something like KQx?

I'm pretty sure that with KQx of diamonds and an outside ace, the king of diamonds would be the standard lead in a slam, not the T of hearts.

I don't think the ♦K lead is automatic when dummy bid that suit naturally.

[CSGibson]

cherdanno, on Feb 10 2010, 08:38 AM, said:

CSGibson, on Feb 9 2010, 09:44 PM, said:

kenrexford, on Feb 9 2010, 02:15 PM, said:

On the one hand, this might all suggest a 7-bagger.  On the other hand, perhaps Opener has a stronger diamond holding than expected, something like KQx?

I'm pretty sure that with KQx of diamonds and an outside ace, the king of diamonds would be the standard lead in a slam, not the T of hearts.

I don't think the ♦K lead is automatic when dummy bid that suit naturally.

maybe not automatic at matchpoints, but it certainly looks like your best chance to beat this sucker at imps, even with that being dummy's bid suit. And, frankly, it would be close to automatic for me, anyway, even at matchpoints. It may not work, but it's got to be better than playing passive, since they know you have all the high cards anyway and can likely play double dummy.

[kenrexford]

And yet, the diamond King was not the lead.

[Fluffy]

sorry I missed this one, LHO had

AQ9xxx
10x
KQxx
9

after winning spade ten I had the option to play for the missdefence+squeeze and go to the bulletin, or play for a mundane club finese or break, I should had picked the bulletin