I believe that in all judgement rulings we assess all evidence, so we take note of his assertion and mentally allow some weighting to it.
The problem is that while I agree with Paul as to what 3
♠ should show I cannot remember that sequence
ever in all my years of playing, and am not convinced that a player would necessarily make the bid for fear partner might be on a different wavelength.
The TD thought similarly: E/W were misinformed, possibly damaged, but quite likely the auction would reach 3NT. He gave an adjustment with some weighting for 4
♠. Even there, entries to do everything is the problem, and 4
♠ might go off. So here gave a percentage of 25 or thereabouts to NS -620, and the remainder to NS +100, both for table score and for 4
♠ -1.
The interest in these problems seems considerably less over the last few. It may be because they are just boring examples, or it may be a surfeit of this type of problem. I have some more from the Swiss Teams, but I have decided to hold them over for a time.